The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Has anyone noticed once again the crazy value on offer for the Spain La Liga 2 match between Leganes and Tenerife? 0-0 HT LTD 2.06 O0.5 1.67.
1-0
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Just for info the following leagues yesterday for a SHG were at 75% normal are at 79-80 every year
Airtricity Premier Division
Allsvenskan
Austrian Bundesliga
Belgian Premier League
Brazilian Serie A
Bundesliga 1
Chinese Super League
Danish Superliga
Dutch Eredivisie
Dutch Jupiler League
Eliteserien
English Championship
English League One
English Premier League
French Ligue 1
French Ligue 2
German Bundesliga 2
J League
MLS
Polish Ekstraklasa
Primeira Liga
Primera Division
Russian Premier League
Scottish Premiership
Segunda Division
Serie A
Swiss Super League
Turkish Super League -
@ryan-carruthers Of course... I'm automation aren't I lol... However for the purpose of this weeks exercise I'm trying to go manual to show automation isn't required... Gonna struggle today to capture all trades to show exact P&L as taken the missus out to a Nat Trust garden walk so she can check out the snowdrops
I tried to explain to the missus that snowdrops aren't as important as trading but she wouldn't have it... However when I returned from A&E we mutually agreed that maybe they are
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@alan-steward that’s solid that - with ability to automate? Expected goals are in the ratings aren’t they?
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@ryan-carruthers 10pts green in December, 12pts green in January & 5pts green MTD
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@ryan-carruthers The actual strat has come from Jason @ Trader Edge hope he doesn't mind me sharing it... Prob should have asked first lol... Although game selection is slightly different as not fully taken from IPS... It kinda goes in-between the Fireball strat (which obviously I can't discuss on here) and your Split Stake... Just helps to capture the earlier first goal although yours should work just as well... Can hopefully set up a similar filter once Goal Expectancy is added to the Stats Software although am working on a new filter now...
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@alan-steward strange as the overall game stats for both are very similar, maybe the first 20mins are less suss each team out in these leagues?
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@ryan-carruthers Avg 7pts green a month... However this strat seems to suit the winter leagues more than the summer and maybe that's due to consistency of results... Take the Iceland league as an example you could prob trade o2.5 goals from KO but not necessarily predict the final score???
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@alan-steward nice avg pts per month?
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@ryan-carruthers Haven't checked odds mate but if they look too skinny then o2.5 goals are an option... Selections come from a predicted score forecast and is back dated with results to August 2020 with a 92% strike rate covering 621 games based on a goal scored between the 10th & 75th minute
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@alan-steward cheers for sharing these buddy
they look solid today! -
Todays Split Stake picks following the strat below but by all means wait until 30mins and use Ryans Split Stake as long as still 0-0
21/2/2021 ANTWERP ST. v TRUIDEN
21/2/2021 WAREGEM ST. v LIEGE
Consider saver Lay above_ Yes
21/2/2021 CORINTHIANS v VASCO
21/2/2021 SANTOS v FLUMINENSE
Consider saver lay above_ Yes
21/2/2021 NICE v METZ
21/2/2021 PARIS SG v MONACO
Consider saver lay above_ No
21/2/2021 ATALANTA v NAPOLI
Consider saver lay above_ No
21/2/2021 PSV v VITESSE
Consider saver lay above_ No
21/2/2021 RIO AVE v FAMALICAO
Consider saver lay above_ NoSplit Stake Trade
25% Stake on 15mins (if still 0-0)
25% stake plus 25pts
25% stake 1 whole pt (plus on 2nd stake)
25% stake 1 whole pt againTypical staking could look like;
25% on 1.65
25% on 1.90
25% on 2.9
25% on 3.9Exit when the back price on over 0.5 goals reached your average odds... prob around 80mins
Remove red if only matched on first 2 stakes
Take green if matched on 3rd & 4th stakes
You can consider using a Saver Lay when removing red on leagues where considered "Yes" above but ensure game is hot and teams are chasing the goal - Saver lay would be to Lay u0.5 goals around the 75/80min mark and then decide to either keep u1.5 live ie not exit trade and lay u0.5 for 1pt or exit trade & lay u0.5 to cover red on u1.5
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Seems to be an improvement on goals in the last few days.....hope this is a return to normal again!
Hope ive not just jinxed today!
Not what I've been seeing probably says more about my game selection and application
Yes obviously it’s subjective to the filter/criteria/selections. I’ve got 4 or 5 filters I am running or testing and they all seem to be doing a bit better but again it’s quite a narrow timeframe so not getting too excited!
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My late goals was running at around 50% but has gone up to 74% over the last few days so hopefully stays like this
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Seems to be an improvement on goals in the last few days.....hope this is a return to normal again!
Hope ive not just jinxed today!
Not what I've been seeing probably says more about my game selection and application
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Seems to be an improvement on goals in the last few days.....hope this is a return to normal again!
Hope ive not just jinxed today!
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Todays Split Stake picks following the strat below but by all means wait until 30mins and use Ryans Split Stake as long as still 0-0
20/2/2021 EUPEN OOSTENDE - 0.13pts green
20/2/2021 WAASLAND-BEVEREN CHARLEROI - Scratch, Saver lay used... Goal on 87mins
League 0-0's on filter 2% - Consider Saver Lay_Yes
20/2/2021 B. MONCHENGLADBACH MAINZ - NT, Goal Too Early
20/2/2021 EINTRACHT FRANKFURT BAYERN MUNICH - NT, Goal Too early
20/2/2021 FC KOLN STUTTGART - Scratch, matched on first 2 stakes removed red but no 2nd goal
20/2/2021 FREIBURG UNION BERLIN - 0.44pts
League 0-0's on filter 6% - Consider Saver Lay_No
20/2/2021 PARIS FC CHATEAUROUX - 0.23pts green
League 0-0's on filter 7% - Consider Saver Lay_No
20/2/2021 VENLO AZ ALKMAAR - NT, Goal too early
League 0-0's on filter 5% - Consider Saver Lay_No
20/2/2021 OSS ALMERE CITY - NT, Goal too early
League 0-0's on filter 0% - Consider Saver Lay_Yes
20/2/2021 XAMAX WINTERTHUR - 0.15pts green
League 0-0's on filter 0% - Consider Saver Lay_NoSplit Stake Trade
25% Stake on 15mins (if still 0-0)
25% stake plus 25pts
25% stake 1 whole pt (plus on 2nd stake)
25% stake 1 whole pt againTypical staking could look like;
25% on 1.65
25% on 1.90
25% on 2.9
25% on 3.9Exit when the back price on over 0.5 goals reached your average odds... prob around 80mins
Remove red if only matched on first 2 stakes
Take green if matched on 3rd & 4th stakes
You can consider using a Saver Lay when removing red on leagues where considered "Yes" above but ensure game is hot and teams are chasing the goal - Saver lay would be to Lay u0.5 goals around the 75/80min mark and then decide to either keep u1.5 live ie not exit trade and lay u0.5 for 1pt or exit trade & lay u0.5 to cover red on u1.5
Total green on above trades = 0.95pts
Green on in-play trades = 0.65pts green (2 additional Split Stakes o1.5 & 2 SHG Drip Stake)
Total P/L on Saturday 1.6pts
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@mark-gorton said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson Thought the gods had smiled on this one, the red dot started flashing on Flashscore on the 97 min....then it faded away and the game finished......
Yes, goal came up on Bet365 as well. I’m assuming it was ruled out for offside
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
LTD / LCS in the Rocdale v Plymouth match. Currently 0-0 at HT
12 SOT no goals
I was on this too... can't believe it ended 0-0! 12 SOT, loads of attacking
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@keith-anderson Thought the gods had smiled on this one, the red dot started flashing on Flashscore on the 97 min....then it faded away and the game finished......
