The BTC Football Trading Thread

[Ryan]

Couple I am working through now..

Real Madrid - LTD price too high atm so will look at it for HT LTD

Sheff U v Boro - FH LTD stats looks decent on that for me

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Just this one overnight. Lay Under 1.5:

2-0

[Richard Latimer]

Just this one overnight. Lay Under 1.5:

[Mark Maguire]

Happy enough tonight regarding my comments about potentially annoying teams .. Watford Did, Morecambe didn't and Crawley thought about it

Sheff Wed vs Morecambe No trade didn't go in from the start because of odds. goal after a minute.
Stockport vs Crawley went in at 1-1 when odds were 3.95 and had already pocketed the 01.5 below, greened up after Stockport second
Burnley vs Watford Just above break even after waiting in the second half happy enough as greened up after Watford goal on the 01.5

They all strike me as good home teams who always find a way but games can be close and all the opposition teams come under the "can come up with annoying results" category so there's a bit of risk in them.

I'll likely trade them cautiously but will wait for odds on Sheff Wed and Stockport games .. if I miss out I miss out.

Stockport and Burnley will be 01.5 as above

Also 01.5

Bristol Rovers vs Ipswich 11 shots on target - no goals - happens hindsight would be Ipswich a bit up and down lately.

And will definitely green up where goals go in my favour

Finally had a bonus ball come in when I did a late small stake on backing the draw which doesn't count in my planned stakes but makes the green on the Burnley game nicer and negates the loss on the Bristol Rovers game

[Mr. Emmet Moorehouse]

Bristol Rovers 0-0 Ipswich: SHG backed

[Mr. Emmet Moorehouse]

Portsmouth 0-0 Burton Albion: SHG backed.

[Mr. Emmet Moorehouse]

Stockport 1-1 Crawley Town : SHG backed.

[Akiva Anderson]

SHg in the Derby v Lincoln. 0-1 at HT

[Akiva Anderson]

SHG in the Norwich v Hull match. 1-1 at HT

[Mr. Emmet Moorehouse]

Also, I hope Munich kick the living s...te out of PSG, but only because I saw the ticket prices.

[Mr. Emmet Moorehouse]

Here is my watch-list for SHGs for tonight. I've been too busy today to look in detail so I'll go based on how things look at HT, a quick perusal of Soccerstats and the usual chat on here:

[A Former User]

Sorry Burnley vs Watford over 2.5 also

[A Former User]

My picks for tonight

[A Former User]

@mark-maguire

Stockport and Wednesday are the absolute banker tonight. Just hope I can get in, I’ve got a order waiting to be matched @ 5

[A Former User]

@mark-maguire

Agree, my stats give me predicted goal times and what the odds resets are, my theory.

[Mark Maguire]

@lee-snape Yes it came up on that filter too for me but I'm on the cautious side with stats .. normally I want 70% plus probability of 02.5 allied with strong FHG and/or 01.5 stats

02.5 50% (2.15 ) so value in that respect as its 2.28 on Betfair
01.5 75% (1.43)
FHG 90% (1.19)

Wouldn't look to dissuade you from your 02.5 but just letting you know my rationale.

[A Former User]

@mark-maguire

Burnley over 2.5 for me

[Mark Maguire]

Tonight is interesting and a little challenging .. LTD apart from two or three Northern Irish games where I'm nervous to trade because the Market often gets suspended from the start there are three games where I have similar feelings:

Sheff Wed vs Morecambe
Stockport vs Crawley
Burnley vs Watford

They all strike me as good home teams who always find a way but games can be close and all the opposition teams come under the "can come up with annoying results" category so there's a bit of risk in them.

I'll likely trade them cautiously but will wait for odds on Sheff Wed and Stockport games .. if I miss out I miss out.

Stockport and Burnley will be 01.5

Also 01.5

Bristol Rovers vs Ipswich

And will definitely green up where goals go in my favour

[Mr. Emmet Moorehouse]

In fairness to Sampdoria, they really blunted Inter. It wasn't pretty to watch, but it had its funny side i.e. me looking at the stats and wondering why.

[A Former User]

@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@chris-osborne Lukaku's GPS needs reprogramming because it must be lying to him about the distances he's doing in training

Must be showing the mileage from clubs he joins but he’s then garbage