The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer psv had the lowest h2 avg goal by a mile on my filter for that league. 1.35 when a lot of the others are over 2. Possibly a red flag i should of picked up. Looking back a lot of the losses are my fault
Ah right. I meant as a whole. Can't remember what the averages were I saw. Will look later.
In any case, Backa Topola starts soon. Will look for a FHG after 19 and if the goal comes between 15-22 I'll look for another from the 25th onwards.
Too early on both counts but if there's another 17-34 I'll enter again in the 35th.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Does anybody here use a Betdaq account... I'm interested in measuring their prices against Betfair.
Reason being, if I have my bot set up on the o1.5 goal market with Betfair and if I wish to set up a SHG trade/bet it can interfere with the bot.
I can cancel the bot at any time using my phone/tablet or laptop but I like to set & forget.
Bet Angel have a bot for Betdaq so I could have set & forget SHG trades there or trade manually without having to cancel on my Betfair bot etc.
I'd like to know how far out the odds are... When I've checked without opening an account with Betdaq it seems they can be quite a bit lower than Betfair... Odds on a Celtic game were quite a bit apart a little while back when I checked but I'm not sure if I was getting an accurate reading as I wasn't logged into a live account at Betdaq.
Not sure about Betdaq Alan but can you not specify Bet Angel to only hedge the specific strategy without interfering with others? As you know I use BF Botmanager not Bet Angel for automation but each specific strategy can be set to only hedge the trade generated by that specific strat without intefering with any other trades in that market.
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer psv had the lowest h2 avg goal by a mile on my filter for that league. 1.35 when a lot of the others are over 2. Possibly a red flag i should of picked up. Looking back a lot of the losses are my fault
Ah right. I meant as a whole. Can't remember what the averages were I saw. Will look later.
In any case, Backa Topola starts soon. Will look for a FHG after 19 and if the goal comes between 15-22 I'll look for another from the 25th onwards.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@dan-mackinnon That is very smart thinking here my friend, how easy was it?
Extra points for publicly saying you are a palace fan too
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@richard-latimer psv had the lowest h2 avg goal by a mile on my filter for that league. 1.35 when a lot of the others are over 2. Possibly a red flag i should of picked up. Looking back a lot of the losses are my fault
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer ive noticed something similar anecdotally. Just noticing top teams playing each other throwing up a lot of 0-0s
Yep, I had all 3 on my filter but didn't do them purely on odds. Also had Sevilla and it's a similar story with 1-0. Not sure on away faves. It's something I'm going to look at later.
Also had PSV. PSV had big home ave (2.4). For close games when it goes over 2.3 it becomes well iffy on mine. A return to the mean has been put forth as reasoning which could explain some of it. I also feel it could be a question of when the goals haven't been coming they are already underperforming that average so maybe it's just one of those days for them. If they've already scored plenty on the day it doesn't seem to matter so much.
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@richard-latimer ive noticed something similar anecdotally. Just noticing top teams playing each other throwing up a lot of 0-0s
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@jim-wain said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I did my first bit of my own trading on that match, very pleased!
I went in for over 2.5 after kick off, I left it running after a goal as I could see more coming.
At 2-2 I went in again for over 5.5 and suddenly it was 3-3!
70 mins I went for LCS, and in it came.I enjoyed it a whole lot more being able to actually watch the match live and trading based on what I can see. Small stakes but green is green!
Sounds like a great set of trades Jim, especially for your first on your own. Awesome!
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Some terrible results yesterday, i managed a 0-0 in monaco, celta vigo and copenhagen and no second half goal in psv and sevilla
Seems tightening the filter from h2 avg goals from 1.7 to 1.8 would of avoided some but could also just be variance.
Btts of 35% on sevilla maybe a red flag aswell
Just something I've found but you get a lot more 0-0's when the odds suggest there is not as much between the two teams. Limits selections but so far if home team strong fave or dog of 3.5 or over the results are much better for that particular scoreline.
Maybe investigate for your filter.
Strong fave for me is 1.5 or under.
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I did my first bit of my own trading on that match, very pleased!
I went in for over 2.5 after kick off, I left it running after a goal as I could see more coming.
At 2-2 I went in again for over 5.5 and suddenly it was 3-3!
70 mins I went for LCS, and in it came.I enjoyed it a whole lot more being able to actually watch the match live and trading based on what I can see. Small stakes but green is green!
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Some terrible results yesterday, i managed a 0-0 in monaco, celta vigo and copenhagen and no second half goal in psv and sevilla
Seems tightening the filter from h2 avg goals from 1.7 to 1.8 would of avoided some but could also just be variance.
Btts of 35% on sevilla maybe a red flag aswell
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@ryan-carruthers I did 4 trades in the morning and 3 lost. I had more for later in the day but once the 3rd loss went in I thought it was a good sign to call it a day. Not because I thought I'd start chasing losses but wanted to see how easy it is to switch off knowing that there's more football out there. The 3rd loss happened just before Crystal Palace were to kick off so I thought I'd go watch them instead... in hindsight probably a mistake because it was such a boring game!
I've just had the option to renew my season ticket so long term I would prefer not to trade when Palace are playing as hopefully I would be at the ground. Also don't want trading to become an obstacle or compromise to things I enjoyed before lockdown.
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@mark-gorton said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@daniel-helps-0 Got in late at 3-3 80mins but pretty much knew my trade was safe.....
Exactly mate, you could almost guarantee another goal
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@daniel-helps-0 Got in late at 3-3 80mins but pretty much knew my trade was safe.....
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Crazy game in Australia this morning, Western Sydney vs Wellington, goals goals and more goals with loads of opportunities to trade, so many opportunities in fact that I entered multiple times. Ended 4-3 (with a VAR disallowed goals in the last minute which would have made it 4-4).
I've said it before but they really can't defend over there, they might as well play 0-5-5 formation, you get less goals playing 5-a-side with you mates!
Great start to the trading week, I really recommend that you have a look at the A-league if you don't currently.
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@dan-mackinnon Did the rest of the day turn bad too?
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Todays Split Stake picks following the strat below
Split Stake Trade
25% Stake on 15mins (if still 0-0)
25% stake plus 25pts
25% stake 1 whole pt (plus on 2nd stake)
25% stake 1 whole pt againTypical staking could look like;
25% on 1.65
25% on 1.90
25% on 2.9
25% on 3.9Exit when the back price on over 0.5 goals reached your average odds... prob around 80mins
Remove red if only matched on first 2 stakes
Take green if matched on 3rd & 4th stakes
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Results from yesterdays Bot
Todays Split Stake picks following the strat below but by all means wait until 30mins and use Ryans Split Stake as long as still 0-0
Split Stake Trade
25% Stake on 15mins (if still 0-0)
25% stake plus 25pts
25% stake 1 whole pt (plus on 2nd stake)
25% stake 1 whole pt againTypical staking could look like;
25% on 1.65
25% on 1.90
25% on 2.9
25% on 3.9Exit when the back price on over 0.5 goals reached your average odds... prob around 80mins
Remove red if only matched on first 2 stakes
Take green if matched on 3rd & 4th stakes
Total P&L on above games 0.45pts Green
1 red but enough value in the other games to generate an element of value
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For example... Odds on the o1.5 market with the Aussie Western Sydney game are only a tick or so away from Betfair so that isn't too bad
