The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Yesterdays under 2.5 goals results
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Thanks
In theory, the spreadsheet should be adaptable for many goals-based systems, that's the plan eventually
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Thanks Lee. I've also taken a look at the spreadsheet extract you posted. You are approaching this in a very interesting way.
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Good evening guys hope everyone is well,
These will be my options for tonight (highlighted), did the analysis on them all and the planned entrance is before kick-off and then at the displayed exit.
Happy hunting! -
SHG candidates:
Arsenal V City
Madrid v Elche
Sheffield Utd V Middlesborough- I'm unsure of this one, even though it has come up on two filters with strike rates in the mid 80s.
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@mark-maguire Exactly what I was thinking re Boro!
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@mark-maguire Liked there write up, good to read and align with my thoughts on the two games too!
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ps Apologies that was all a bit long winded !!
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I think tonight is tricky, very little on my filters.
Real Madrid vs Elche is across them all and the stats say its a no brainer, I will trade but with an element of caution stakes wise because of a few little concerns:
Madrid form in the league not great and they are just back off a long trip and missing Vinícius Júnior creatively, rumblings about Ancelloti, Elche just off the back of a good win against Villarreal and for example whilst the stats say FHG thats based on the fact that Elche concede a lot rather than Madrid scoring a lot .. the above is balanced against stats which say the trade is a no brainer but I am likely to split my stakes and monitor in play.
For interest the stats show a projected score of 4-1
02.5 73% (1.48) BF 1.57 so value ?
01.5 87% (1.23) BF 1.18 not yet value ?
FHG 97% (1.11) BF 1.28 so value ?Match odds for me
Real Madrid 1.11 (1.22 Betfair)
Elche 33 (17 Betfair)
Draw 14 (8 Betfair) So already value albeit liability high ?So after all that:
Likely to trade:LTD after a few mins
02.5
maybe as a lay of under 2.5 while I wait for the 01.5 price to come in
01.5
If it comes in to a decent level, if I miss out I miss out.
FHG
Dependent on action in first few mins - again if I miss out its fine.
Other than this ..
Other 01.5
Stats are decent for Sheff Utd game but think I will limit it to an 01.5 trade .
Then for interest ..
I have a sneaking feeling that Boro are value at 3.95 and may take the unusual step of Laying Sheff Utd at 2.1. may be a fools errand of course
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Thanks mate.
Just had a quick chat with myself and the last few days is now parked onwards and upwards as they say
.My idea now is to trade opportunities on my below 2.5 goals theory for 30 days (as stage 3 I think), 5 % of bankroll per stake and see if the system is profitable for that time period. Another problem which I think maybe contributing to it is trying to run before I walk, have been absorbing information like crazy the last few weeks and perhaps my simple brain just had a little meltdown
.When I get home I'll post my spreadsheet as normal with the selections and please comment guys
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@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-snape lack of discipline or something else?
Discipline 100%, maybe over confident too.
I have weekends when I turn say £50 budget into £300
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Yeah agree mate thanks
I think I've lost my focus trying to maximise previous systems which had served me well with an analysis of it maybe down to luck? I spent 70% to 80% of my time researching so I know there is substantiation to the system of backing under 2.5, but 1 thing I know could be an issue is having calculated exit points, having say more than 2 exiting at the same time frame.
Profits against the stake can vary from 8% to 22% and it sounds crazy but that doesn't actually give me the buzz, a good trade does regardless of the money involved. After a little reality check last night and I was very critical which was fully deserved for making a few ridiculous decisions over the last 2 days, I have a concrete plan which will I will be sticking too.
I will share everything so please advise if you see anything untoward guys in my madness.
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@lee-snape firstly don't be hard on yourself - we all have horrible weeks.. secondly the under 2.5 with a quick exit is an interesting angle and certainly peaked my interest when you posted about it. Finally as an observation if I can .. from the selections you post you seem to be asking a lot of yourself with different markets and quite a few different things to look at, would it be worth focussing on the best one or two strategies and developing those before moving on to perfect the others? just a thought
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My performance has been very poor so far this week which I'm very annoyed at myself
The bonus for me is my back under 2.5 goals startergy and trade out at designated time has been 100% successful the last few days even when AC Milan scored in the first 7 minutes ( still managed to get out with 10% profit).
I have 2 matches for this new system tonight which are Real Madrid and West Brom based on this system.
Im really annoyed at myself
