The BTC Football Trading Thread

James Woodroffe

Is Betfair down again

Stuart Capstick

Betfair down. Again..

? Offline

@keith-anderson Thanks mate, I was looking at the it and thought I am not seeing this right. I followed you in on the lay U1.5 so happy days.

Akiva Anderson

@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson

And you've just won that one as well.

I think there’s another goal, but I’m saving my money for tonight

Akiva Anderson

@mark-gorton said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson Hi Keith, here is a thick question. You said you were laying O 0.5 so doesn't that mean if a goal does in you have lost the trade?

I meant under!

If I’m laying under 1.5 goals in a game and it’s0-0 at HT, I’ll always lay under 0.5 goals. I expect goals

Stuart Capstick

@keith-anderson

And you've just won that one as well.

? Offline

@keith-anderson Hi Keith, here is a thick question. You said you were laying O 0.5 so doesn't that mean if a goal does in you have lost the trade?

Akiva Anderson

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I’m laying under 1.5 goals in the Armenia v Romania match. Just about to kick off

Laying over 0.5 goals now

Goal! 1-0

I’m still in the 1.5 market too

? Offline

lcs swiss vs portugal u21 0-1 HT
lcs croatia vs eng u21 0-1 HT

Akiva Anderson

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I’m laying under 1.5 goals in the Armenia v Romania match. Just about to kick off

Laying over 0.5 goals now

? Offline

I'm backing o1.5 , lots of shots at moment

Akiva Anderson

I’m laying under 1.5 goals in the Armenia v Romania match. Just about to kick off

? Offline

WCQ's Updated;

Not been able to check value for tonight's WCQ's as the Betfair Exchange is currently down. Although I believe there has only been one 0-0 in this round of games so therefore if it appears to show value it should be good to go, so long as there's decent IPS.

I will hopefully be able to update with my watchlist later

Forebet Score Prediction Follows Each Game
Northern Ireland v Bulgaria 3-0 - Result 0-0 (Guess I had to catch one) - 1.5pts red employed saver lay @1.5

Greece v Georgia 1-1 - Result 1-1 waited for market to settle and odds can move against you quite quickly at time of first goal but while waiting for market to settle was just about to hit the cash out button and market suspended for the 2nd goal - 1.43pts green

Austria v Denmark 2-2 - Result 0-4 was fully matched on this game but really fancied o1.5 goals even though IPS wasn't brilliant, removed red after 1st goal - 0.58pts green

Scotland v Faroe Islands 5-1 - Result 4-0 - NT (goal too early)

Armenia v Romania 0-5 - Result 3-2 - 0.07pts green

Look for decent attacking intent and don't be afraid to switch between my preferred start to Ryan's if attacking intent is slow.

However it might be worth checking out the u21 games as well, most notebly;

Forebet Score Prediction Follows Each Game
Iceland v France 2 -3
Croatia v England 3 - 3
Switzerland v Portugal 2 -4
Was too busy to trade the u21 games but there was some nice green to be had here and hopefully you managed to profit from them.

I will be keeping tabs on trading the o2.5 goals market in the above games

Will be looking to enter around the 15/20min mark

My choice of trade;

25% on entry
25% plus 25pts
25% circa 2.9
25% circa 3.9

Remove red if only matched on 2 dripped stakes green up if 3rd or 4th dripped stake is matched... Take red around the 75/80th minute mark or when o0.5 goal back odds match your total average dripped stake.

Choose to use saver lay (Lay uo.5 goals) wisely!!!

Total evenings P&L 0.45pts green

? Offline

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Posted this in the wrong place this morning

Tonight's WCQ Split Stake Watchlist (Incudes Forebet Score Prediction)

Slovakia v Russia - 1-2 result 2 -1 0.33pts green
Montenegro v Norway - 1-1 result 1 - 0 should have been scratch but messed up 0.2pts green
Azerbaijan v Serbia - 0-3 result 1 - 2 NT
Wales v Czech Rep - 1-1 result 1 - 0 scratch - used saver lay on Wales red card

The above is a guideline based on some of the better looking value for o1.5 but will be looking for positive starts within each game.

Will be looking to enter around the 15/20min mark

My choice of trade;

25% on entry
25% plus 25pts
25% circa 2.9
25% circa 3.9

Remove red if only matched on 2 dripped stakes green up if 3rd or 4th dripped stake is matched... Take red around the 75/80th minute mark or when o0.5 goal back odds match your total average dripped stake.

Choose to use saver lay (Lay uo.5 goals) wisely!!!

I messed up a tad this evening and was late entering the games (30th min) so employed Ryan's Split Stake... That said IPS in all 3 late games were slow starting so switching strats isn't a bad thing... I just got engaged with other things

I took green on the Montenegro game purely from accident as I always traded out on first goal using Ryan's strat... Had I been more focused I would have removed red but at least it went in my favour.

Total evening P&L 0.54pts green

? Offline

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

NO FHG! But will be LCS in the wales game, really should have been a goal here, could also qualify as a late goal trade too if it stays like this.

Gone for a late goal also 68 mins 1.96

GOAL! nice couple trades here, profit from this game and the int break

? Offline

surely if portugal get beat this must be the biggest upset in football ever

? Offline

NO FHG! But will be LCS in the wales game, really should have been a goal here, could also qualify as a late goal trade too if it stays like this.

Gone for a late goal also 68 mins 1.96

? Offline

@martin-futter generally okay mate but needs to be competitive... With the drips I'm laying there will still be green with 1 goal 75mins to 80mins... I would be happy to use a SHG strat as I have the FH to measure but not keen or interested in FHG... The Split Stake I'm using helps bridge FHG & SHG... Obviously payout is better with FHG or SHG but personally feel FHG is too risky

? Offline

Backed a FHG in the wales vs czech game @1.59 pre match

Martin

@alan-steward how do you find internationals in general?