The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
late goal bielefeld vs freiburg 0-0 65 mins
Goal! 1-0 Cracking price too
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late goal bielefeld vs freiburg 0-0 65 mins
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SHG
Eupen v Standard LiegeBack plus 2 goals at HT for 0.25pts
Back plus 2 goals plus 1 whole pt from HT for 0.25ptsQue LCS at 1.9 for 0.6pts if still 0-1
Typical stacking
0.25pts at HT 1.8 odds
0.25pts at 2.8If no goal and LCS hits 1.9 lay for 0.6pts
Remove red if only 1 part matched
Take green if both parts matched
Let run if LCS at 1.9 is matched (go for 2 late goals) -
LCS Vitesse matched 1.70 70 mins
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late goal vitesse vs ado 0-0 71 mins
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@thomas-larsen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@thomas-larsen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
O 1.5 in Visla - Rakov 1.36
GOAL 1-0 removed red
GOAL 1-1
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@thomas-larsen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
O 1.5 in Visla - Rakov 1.36
GOAL 1-0 removed red
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
FHG watford vs reading (to win 1pt)
GOAL! 1-0 nice and easy one this
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O 1.5 in Visla - Rakov 1.36
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FHG watford vs reading (to win 1pt)
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Easy to say should've let Hamburger game run but then hindsight is a wonderful thing... Would rather trade my way through a game rather than risk unnecessary red
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHG
Hamburger v DamstadtBack plus 2 goals at HT for 0.25pts
Back plus 2 goals plus 1 whole pt from HT for 0.25ptsQue LCS at 1.9 for 0.6pts if still 0-0
Typical stacking
0.25pts at HT 1.8 odds
0.25pts at 2.8If no goal and LCS hits 1.9 lay for 0.6pts
Remove red if only 1 part matched
Take green if both parts matched
Let run if LCS at 1.9 is matched (go for 2 late goals)0-1 will wait 5mins and remove red
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SHG
Hamburger v DamstadtBack plus 2 goals at HT for 0.25pts
Back plus 2 goals plus 1 whole pt from HT for 0.25ptsQue LCS at 1.9 for 0.6pts if still 0-0
Typical stacking
0.25pts at HT 1.8 odds
0.25pts at 2.8If no goal and LCS hits 1.9 lay for 0.6pts
Remove red if only 1 part matched
Take green if both parts matched
Let run if LCS at 1.9 is matched (go for 2 late goals) -
Should be a SHG goal in Breda game but real skinny odds, am already in the plus 2 goal market (o2.5) and cant advise entering on current odds
Red card now so no trade if not already in
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@stuart-capstick thanks Stuart, I shall!
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If you back at 1.2, with a success rate of 84%, you'll break even.
Start recording odds. If you work out the average first goal time, you may be able to get a (very) approximate idea of the odds at the time the goal was scored.
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
What odds are you backing or laying at, Daniel?
Oooh I’m no where near tracking that yet. Currently I’ve been tracking no. FHG, FHG times, % of games with FHG and then Avg FHG time and Avg 1st FHG time. I was waiting for more results before fully formulating a strategy behind it. Its still early days, at 80 or so selection it has 84% with a FHG, but like I’ve said the selections are so few and far between so I may need to revisit the criteria to get more selections... I’m unsure what to do, don’t want to dilute the high strike rate
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What odds are you backing or laying at, Daniel?
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri
As you say, it depends on what you are doing. The more restrictive your criteria, probably 500 is enough. If, however, you are doing a blanket SHG on, say, strong home favourites, you'll need 1,000 or so.
The more loose your criteria are, the more likely variance there will be as you haven't controlled for a variety of factors.I’ve got a FHG filter I’ve been running for 3 or 4 months now, its only clocked 80 or so selections but has some solid data so far! I guess this would fall in to the restrictive sort of filter, I have no idea when I’ll reach 500
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
As the pre match fav was the home team will be looking to enter the o2.5 goal market in around 10/15mins time with the following trade
If score is still 0-1
20% stake on o2.5 goals at circa 30mins
20% plus 50pts
20% plus 50pts
20% plus 1 whole pt
20% plus 1 whole pt againTypical staking could look like
20% @ 1.65
20% @ 2.16
20% @ 2.66
20% @ 3.66
20% @ 4.66Take green if matched or red on 75/80mins
Matched with starting stake of 1.6
Cashed out o2.5 goals after 5mins but will look to reinvest all green on 80mins for late goal or scratch
Pre match I wasnt really warming to today's A League game so only used 1/5th stakes but it still returned a full 0.12pts green... will be looking to get involved with some SHG stuff this evening... Enjoy your day!
