The BTC Football Trading Thread

[Mr. Emmet Moorehouse]

@lee-snape I'm sure there is more to come in that match.

[Mr. Emmet Moorehouse]

I'll go for a SHG in the Danish one.

The stats say that the Serbian one is nailed on but the in play data is iffy. However 1.41 is being offered at HT, so I'll probably do it.

[A Former User]

I tried to enter lay Villa but Arsenal Scored LOL

[A Former User]

Just entered LTD Villa vs Arsenal at 3.5

[Nick Allan]

@lee-snape thats fab mate thank you, few things to look at there that i dont look at so food for thought :thumbs_up:

[A Former User]

Of course mate, these are what id look for in an ideal match:

Dangerous Attacks - 1 per minute is fantastic but generally 1 every 1.5 minutes.
Attacks - At least 2/3s converted to dangerous attacks.
Shots - generally if 0-0 at 10 overall, id expect a goal by the 12th.
If a team has 65% possession they will generally deserve to be in front but are susceptible to a counter-attack ( like 50% of the premier league sides).
If the starting 11 is missing a few important players but they are on the bench, look at when they are introduced.

Red cards for me are a red herring for more goals.

What I look for.

[Nick Allan]

@lee-snape said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@nick-allan

Awesome strike rate,
I always use the inplay stats for mine.

Interesting can I ask what in-play stats that you specifically look for? are you looking at shots on target? Possession? number of corners? that sort of thing? One of the things I've started to look at is the score before I enter the second-half trade, so if you got a 3-0 score line and very little shots on target in the first 15 minutes of the second-half I do tend to leave those and although you have the old one that does score a late goal most have lost. I'm trying to compile a spreadsheet at the moment showing what I'm looking at so I can just get a greater understanding of why I enter the trade.
But the moment I only do the second-half goal in the profitable members filter but you don't get many selections throughout the week so I'm just wondering what people look for when trading a SHG in play. Do you ever look at the pre match stats on say over 1.5, or 0.5 second-half goals and maybe look for a minimum percentage there?

[Nick Allan]

@steven-fletcher said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@adam-cubbage wait for back testing? im in the forward testing phase of a strategy but cant bring myself to start going back through all the data for the scores so am hoping the software comes sooner rather than later

do we even know when the back testing is going to be available?

[A Former User]

@nick-allan

Awesome strike rate,
I always use the inplay stats for mine.

[Nick Allan]

@mr-emmet-moorehouse said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I have a question regarding my method:

If my SHG filter is giving me a strike rate of between 83 and 85% after 9 months of data, does it really matter about the additional research that I do?

I'll do it anyway, because I like to feel confident and informed about each trade, but other than my own sense of comfort, am I achieving anything by spending 60-90 minutes on Sat and Sun morning doing confirmatory research?

cracking strike rate if you get the value of say 1.35 plus entry, care to share the filter? I use the profitable filter on the members page but im always on the look out for another as there arent many selections per day

[A Former User]

I think today I'll choose 5 games for back under 2.5 goals strategy but look at SHG throughout the day

My gut tells me Aston Villa vs Arsenal will have SHG but will see what the stats say.

Good luck guys

[Mark Maguire]

Obviously its a day where choosing is probably the hardest bit with a fair few opportunities.

A little selection here :

LTD

Young Boys vs Lugano
St Gilloise vs St Liege
Plymouth vs Fleetwood

Will green up if goals go my way.

01.5

Plymouth vs Fleetwood
Young Boys vs Lugano
Wolfsberg vs Leipzig

(Will green up)

02.5 Split Stake out after sixty mins regardless

Celtic vs Aberdeen
Borrusia Moenchengladbach vs Bayern
Slovan Bratislava vs Bystrica

FHG

Wolfsberg
Celtic
Moenchengladbach

[A Former User]

@martin-walker

Hi Martin, I haven't run my back under 2.5 through the filters yet, so I couldn't comment on that, I chose my own games tbh.

[Richard Latimer]

Only these 3 today and if the under lets me down again so soon I'll probably take them off the table for a bit while I collect more data.

Lay Under 1.5:

Lay Over 3.5:

[Martin Walker]

Anyone elses filters had loads of leagues added to them. Its messed mine right up

[A Former User]

Good morning guys and good luck today

[Adam Cubbage]

@chris-king said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@adam-cubbage I’ve done similar a number of times. It is a bit of work but it’s satisfying when done and really valuable I’ve found as helps to get to know your strategy in more detail and plan better approaches.

that's a good way to think about it, thanks for the thought

[Chris King]

@andy-donnelly Yeah backtesting will be superb. Really looking forward to running my filters through it

[Chris King]

@chris-osborne yeah, I will just work with what I have without the 3pm.
One thing that brought me closer to that decision is a strategy I’m testing that gave me way too many weekend selections.
I began split testing it on weekdays only for a few months thinking it’d be really nice to have something one day that gives me the weekend off!
The result was a 3-4% strike rate increase, better ROI and barely any difference in profit so I’ve eliminated weekends on that one.

I often feel that players feel more pressure to perform well on Saturdays and somehow that affects results in the long term. I have no evidence to back that up however.

[A Former User]

@chris-king

You can also see patterns of outcome without going into a too deep analysis, which for me is more valuable. There is a small element of luck in all our trading which we sometimes forget.