The BTC Football Trading Thread

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@matt-wood Yeah been burnt a few times with German 2nd tier but these stats looked strong lol

Matt Wood

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Have queued SHG LCS in Holstien Kiel game... Queued small stakes (0.15pts red) @ 4.0... Am intrigued with the pre game stats and IPS isn't exactly shabby

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Why did I doubt Bundesliga 2 with small stakes

Green is green

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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Have queued SHG LCS in Holstien Kiel game... Queued small stakes (0.15pts red) @ 4.0... Am intrigued with the pre game stats and IPS isn't exactly shabby

2-0

Why did I doubt Bundesliga 2 with small stakes

Matt Wood

@mark-maguire Triple staking on a single game, even from 3 different filters sounds a tad aggressive to me. Im sure the more experienced traders will correct me here if I'm wrong, please do guys, but if a game 'went bad' you will have essentially lost 3 times what you were willing to lose on what would kinda be one trade.

Of course I could be totally misunderstanding here

Mark Maguire

@alan-steward thanks for the response mate, as per response to @Darri its an Ov2.5 strategy. with three different filters, and yeah I guess im questioning whether to stake separately for each based on the per centres so far.

Mark Maguire

@darri thanks for the response mate, yeah I should have said what the strategy was. Its turned into a combination, started as Ov2.5 looking to get in and out, and then because of a load of data capture and analysing some trends I've essentially added a re-entry under a strategy for Another Goal. The three filters are set up for the Ov2.5 goals market and then it turns essentially into a SHG if certain criteria are met. So the 3 are the same but produce different results, I guess the initial question is would you triple stake if all 3 throw up the same game ..based on the per centages so far. Cheers again for responding.

Matt Wood

@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Good afternoon everyone, hope your trading is going well. New to the site and had a question in relation to unders trading, I've got a filter that I created myself for under 2.5 that I'm having limited success with, nothing major but it's very much in its infancy as I've only joined the site about three weeks ago. Just wondering if there is perhaps a under's 2.5 or perhaps 3.5 thread somewhere where I can maybe get some ideas about what I should be looking for? At the moment I'm looking for things like solid defences, and goal times in the 1st 20 minutes where I tend to exit. Just really looking for some ideas so and some direction of where a thread might be? Any help would be greatly received

Afternoon Nick. Im not sure if there is a single thread about unders but here are some links to a few bits I have looked at:

https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1913/under-2-5-market

https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2543/u2-5-with-odds-between-2-and-2-5

https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2465/help-filter-under-3-5

https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1374/under-2-5

Also this is the filter I am currently testing. I am counting a 'Win' if no goal in the first 10 mins. My strategy, should this prove successful as a test will usually be out of the market by 12mins. Currently a 81.97% success rate. I would ideally like this over 85 before going any further with it.

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Have queued SHG LCS in Holstien Kiel game... Queued small stakes (0.15pts red) @ 4.0... Am intrigued with the pre game stats and IPS isn't exactly shabby

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Interesting game in Bundesliga 2 Holstien Kiel v Sandhausen

Sandhausen are 100% conceding SHG in their 10 previous away games... Red flag is Holstien Kiel are not exactly free scoring at the mo.

And Holstein open their scoring with a FHG... Might be tempted with SHG if it stays within 1 goal at HT

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@nick-allan Also @Martin-Futter has done a lot of work with the u2.5 goal strat... He might also be able to offer some good advice.

Trading unders messes with my head big time

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@mark-maguire Yes mate if it's SHG then you would be in good hands with @darri or @Keith-Anderson... If it's Split Stake o1.5 or o2.5 then I'm sure I can offer some good advice.

After reading your post it seems it's all for the same trade but each filter has a slightly different angle to find games doing the same trade... I ask this question as I've done similar with my Split Stake filters but not traded duplicate games with 3 x's staking which I believe you're also asking?

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@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Good afternoon everyone, hope your trading is going well. New to the site and had a question in relation to unders trading, I've got a filter that I created myself for under 2.5 that I'm having limited success with, nothing major but it's very much in its infancy as I've only joined the site about three weeks ago. Just wondering if there is perhaps a under's 2.5 or perhaps 3.5 thread somewhere where I can maybe get some ideas about what I should be looking for? At the moment I'm looking for things like solid defences, and goal times in the 1st 20 minutes where I tend to exit. Just really looking for some ideas so and some direction of where a thread might be? Any help would be greatly received

Tagging @Matt-Wood as I know he’s looking at an unders strategy

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@mark-maguire hey bud, couple of things, whats the strategy? And are all 3 filters the same strategy just looking at different games? If this is a SHG strategy id love to help its my area of trading and my main trades. If not im sure posting the strategy on here would then be able to direct you to the right people, loads of us doing different things and specialise in different areas. Feel free to message me, the btc guys or on this thread happy to help

Nick Allan

Good afternoon everyone, hope your trading is going well. New to the site and had a question in relation to unders trading, I've got a filter that I created myself for under 2.5 that I'm having limited success with, nothing major but it's very much in its infancy as I've only joined the site about three weeks ago. Just wondering if there is perhaps a under's 2.5 or perhaps 3.5 thread somewhere where I can maybe get some ideas about what I should be looking for? At the moment I'm looking for things like solid defences, and goal times in the 1st 20 minutes where I tend to exit. Just really looking for some ideas so and some direction of where a thread might be? Any help would be greatly received

Mark Maguire

Can I ask some of the established heads on here their thoughts on this.

So when I started I created four filters all along the same lines with nuances of difference between them and have tracked/min stakes traded them for a collective 1300 trades to date. Their are obviously duplications in terms of filter results but I have tracked them individually and recorded the data of goal times, countries etc etc. My question is that because they are all doing quite nicely .. one produced 82% SR from 250 ish trades but too many 0-0's so I've suspended it. The other three have produced respectively: 84% from circa 425, 87% from 475 and 89% from 220. Should I/would you continue with these but stake them as different filters or, when there is a duplication in the filters treat it as one.. i.e. split normal staking three ways if it appears on all three. There are enough unique results for me to want to keep them going and they've also all performed well (89% plus) in an extra goal strategy .. what would you do? Thanks in advance .. ps I know its early days and Ryan has warned me I may get 20 reds in a row at some stage so far from getting giddy about these early results. And those results don't account for the stupid mistakes I've made chasing reds..

Matt Wood

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Late goal tula vs spartak moscow 1-1

GOAL! 1-2 henrik larssons son bagging the goal, you love to see that as a celt

Didnt twig that was his son. The young lad has some big shoes to fill!