The BTC Football Trading Thread
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SHG suwon city vs gwangju (k league) 0-1 HT
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@james-rome reworded below mate
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@james-rome dont try to confuse yourself lad, trading is simply what is the actual strike rate of something and you then selecting a better price than it. The fact they are higher or lower just means your strike rate needs are changed. So lets say the market has priced an unders at 5.0 thats a 20% chance of that event happening according to market. Flip that to make that easier to understand, the market now thinks an over has 80% of happening its what i always do as my brain is too simple. Its then your strike rate with those odds in mind to gain your edge. People are often swayed away from odds because of what is traditionally promoted on forums and online. We must be getting on really low lays and backing really good prices. But actually its pigeon holing like that which stops creative thinking. We can still find edges at most prices.
Lets take an example. We have a SHG strategy. We are debating between two types of entries. When odds are 1.25 to back so 80% chance, we have a strike rate of 85%. When 2.0 we have 52% strike rate.
1.25: after 100 trades and backing with just 1 point = +5.8 points/% of bank
2.0: after 100 trades and backing with just 1 point = + 2.96 points/% of bankJust because your then getting on better odds does not mean anything. We often measure these different odds based on number of wins needed to then make 1 loss back but if our strike rate does indeed cover it why wouldnt we take a strategy thats almost double the amount. Its just about your data and your actual strike rate compared to market odds.
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@darri also if laying at 4 or 5 essentially means by high odds more likely to happen am i right ? thats why higher lay odds are more risking higher liabilty as less likely to happen ?
trying to under the value part
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@alan-steward I think Keith is below 5, going with 4 or below isnt he? I am potentially looking at drip laying. I have some staking for this that has worked well in the past and might work well automated.
Indeed, if you can one click automate it then its not that much work. But then if your split stake is working, stick with that
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@alan-steward i think if you look at what keith is doing he is laying at 4.0, so actually he is well in on those stats. If he has a 83% strike rate at those odds every 100 trades he would be making +29.5 points if he was looking to lay for 1pt profit.
If he was even to use 83% and still be using the 5.0 lays thats still a profit of of around +11 points every 100 trades.
Remember just because the odds are higher to lay does not mean it therefore is not value. I once used to think the same way but actually the strike rate and odds on offer are similar to my SHG strategy. try to think flexibly on here its not just do XYZ or we would all be trading the same edge.
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Todays SHG Watchlist
If IPS looks good & Score Line is either 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1
11/5/2021 BASEL LUGANO... SHG Times 0
11/5/2021 BESIKTAS KARAGUMRUK... SHG Times 54 & 80mins
11/5/2021 LEVANTE BARCELONA... SHG Times 59,57,64,83
11/5/2021 AARAU KRIENS... SHG Times 47,59,66,87I trade manually but without queuing as below... Queuing might make things easier.
Current HT LCS odds 6.2 or less queue LCS at odds 4.0 if early goal move on
Current HT LCS odds over 6.2 at HT back plus 2 goals for 0.25pts queue 0.25pts plus 2 goals 1 whole pt on HT... Lay CS at 1.98 if no goal... Trade out, remove red if only 1 part matched, take green if 2 parts matched, let run if 1.98 lay is matched for 2 late goals
@Keith-Anderson Sorry but overall o1.5 may not be up to your stats (circa 83% from 72 games)
Min 1 SHG 89%
SHG post 59mins Betfair time 81%Small sample set but selections from raw data that would show similar results to previous 12 months
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I like the Laying Under 1.5 goal odds in the Manchester United v Leicester City match tonight. This match doesn't actually make my list today, but there's value there at 4.0.
I expect United to play a fairly weakened side tonight, before playing a full strength team against Liverpool on Thursday.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@ryan-carruthers Yeah sure... Understand re laying u1.5... I will chat with Keith, I think he lays @5... That's a fair few wins (4) to bring back red trades, I have had a dabble but can't find value in the odds to trade out in the SH (as far as I'm aware Keith doesn't)... A late FHG may only return circa 0.1pts (if trading) or no trade out option with first goal in SH... Hence I'd rather trade Split Stake using my latest strat below;
0.2pts 10/15mins
0.2pts plus 0.2 decimal place
0.2pts plus 0.2 decimal place
0.2pts plus 1 whole pt
0.2pts plus 1 whole pttypical trade might be
0.2pts @ 1.35
0.2pts @ 1.55
0.2pts @ 1.75
0.2pts @ 2.75
0.2pts @ 3.75Take green or remove red on first goal or exit for red circa 75/78mins
Obviously this may look a lot of work to do manually but is almost a one click operation in automation mode
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@alan-steward I'm only doing the 0-0 / 1-1 / 0-1 / 1-0 buddy
I am toying with checking these as a under 1.5 lay after seeing @Keith-Anderson he has inspired me
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@ryan-carruthers What kind of score line do you see there mate 0-2/1-2
Or you happy to LTD or LCS on any score line?
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Todays games... Not too many games today, these games are taken from a new project I'm working on with the Football Ratings Page... The Fireball o1.5 trades are on
As soon as I can find a way to automate results to the Spreadsheet I will upload it in my signature, I have the results but need to find a way to automate from one spreadsheet to another.
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Lay Under 1.5 Goals: Results:
13:00 - Chievo v Ascoli - FT: 3-0
13:00 - Monza v Brescia - FT: 0-2
19:30 - Hamburg v Nurnberg - FT: 5-2
20:00 - Real Betis v Granada - FT: 2-1
20:00 - Sporting Gijon v Lugo - FT: 1-0 -
Don't forget if your doing a straight lay/back bet there's always Sportsbook
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@james-rome yeah calling it a night
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@steve-sandell said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
wanted to get on the Betis game
same rather it be down then on with suspended all other
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wanted to get on the Betis game
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wanted to go for SHG in porto game but all games seem to be on susepnded
