The BTC Football Trading Thread

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@alan-steward Yes but then Eoghan Morgan jumped ship.

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@alan-steward thats the after party :clinking_beer_mugs: we fake the kindness and gentlemans game for around 6hrs, need to relieve the pumped up aggression somehow

Nah in all seriousness scotland have been pushing on the boundaries of test match status for years now, ireland just got it. Up here its actually quite popular just obviously isnt as good as nations who have full time players etc. We dont get cricket as one of the main sports within schools so its typically something you get into up here by choice. We have a heavy oil industry up here so typically we get alot of families from abroad come and settle and look for teams, think england do that well with the national team . Typically in the leagues i play in we sign overseas players for a year, give them accommodation etc so its well setup, probably better than you might think etc.

But this is a football thread so ill leave it there

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@keith-anderson Actually, all joking aside didn't they get quite good at one point

Matt Wood

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@darri Yeah, didn't even know they played cricket in Scotland... Or is your interpretation of cricket running around the streets of Glasgow whacking people over the head with a cricket bat and it got called off in case the rain softened the bats

We play cricket here in Ireland too!!

You play Hurling in Ireland..much more deadly than whacking someone on the head with a cricket bat!!!

Akiva Anderson

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@darri Yeah, didn't even know they played cricket in Scotland... Or is your interpretation of cricket running around the streets of Glasgow whacking people over the head with a cricket bat and it got called off in case the rain softened the bats

We play cricket here in Ireland too!!

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@darri Yeah, didn't even know they played cricket in Scotland... Or is your interpretation of cricket running around the streets of Glasgow whacking people over the head with a cricket bat and it got called off in case the rain softened the bats

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@alan-steward yeah i can rely on trading in terms of reliability but when it comes to the relying on the weather for my weekends plans up here in :scotland: im still naïvely optimistic

Its why the forum is so good mate, because here we have two different approaches from good traders for people to take little bits from both

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@darri Exactly... And just to clarify I trade straight from filters, SHG, o1.5 & o2.5 as well as trading FHG, SHG or Overs straight from IPS.

I feel I've really rounded my trading during the past couple of years and have been trading circa 4 years... I have been round the block more than once.

I only started posting SHG at the weekend to help cover you not being there and you still turned up

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@alan-steward exactly its all about personal choice and the individuals circle of competence. For me my experience is with SHG/Late goals, yours is with split stakes, keith is now including the 1.5 markets. Keith probably knows that he has a good chance if a FHG is scored in his games that this means the full trade will win rather than needing to trade out. I know what scorelines, odds, types of teams etc i need for a given game. Over a large sum of games i can expect a good return. Its all unique to the way you want to trade. You like inplay stats, keiths, stuarts ltd and mine dont require it. Its all about how we find our edges and how we manage ourselves. Just because you have one way does not therefore mean that someone else is then missing out. I would miss countless good qualifying games based on FH stats or 5-10 min window stats. Those add up. But would i be finding a better mentality of knowing its a good game yes but my data says otherwise. You see what i mean, all relative to the individual. My blog is all about inplay trades and stats/match flow, doesnt mean every strategy or trade i post has to fit that plan. I dont like inplay stats, i think it can often be wrongly inputted, sometimes we see goaline clearances not even count as a shot on target etc, but do i think you can be profitable using inplay stats of course i do. You are proof of that. Likewise people will then say about some of my games might be crap and died out your saying the inplay wasnt that hot, but goals happen from some of the weirdest and wackiest situations too. This game was actually really open and had plenty of chances, would i have missed it based on your IPS. If we compare the two games you said, my game had 25 goal attempts and 14 of those on target, the other game which you said was hotter ended up having 24 and 11 on target so less, but both had at least one more goal in it. Takes just one second for a goal to happen. There are negatives with every approach. Not a one size fits all.

If we have profit over a large amount of time consistently then it really doesnt matter if we use IPS/Pre match stats, who cares. We could trade every single game with our strategies. These tools we use just help us become consistent in finding the good selections for our style. Thats why i love trading because we all see it differently to each other. Meaning edges are everywhere.

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Okay hair cut time

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@darri Sorry not avoiding chat but been busy DIY at home, way behind with the shower room project ... Re type of Trader, yes I am a more conservative trader and have no probs with that... Re trading out on o1.5 goals... Again going back to match selection conversion rates it doesn't matter too much if you trade or not as long as the conversion rate can profit from any/all selections.

And that is key... Conversion Rates.

Trading straight from a filter is fine... As long as it maintains profit.

Same as my IPS selections, if I read the stats correctly and consistently I will profit.

Take this morning as an example... I quickly visited the forum and noticed your shout for the Suwon game... Checked IPS and it seemed to justify a goal so jumped on circa 2.6... However when checking stats for that game I could see the other K1 match was hot so jumped on both.

I jumped on both as your game wasn't hot but at those odds if one came in it would cover most of the other red and at least one game was sure to come in... So I can be a tad aggressive

And sorry but just didn't have time to post mine earlier.

Akiva Anderson

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@alan-steward yeah mate, i used to argue with myself about it all the time, only really totally understood until i tracked and saw it was actually all just relative. The thing i also agree on which is what i think you were meaning before is bank outlay on such trades, for that i understand but i think both keith and I would be classed as quite aggressive traders, we see that in keith doesnt trade out on those FHGs in those games and i stake above what is typically advised too, for me its getting most out a strategy for others thats just overstaking. Just depends on the traders style doesnt it, as with all things trading personal choice and views on risk are different to each individual. Not one person is wrong as long as they achieve profit.

I’m definitely an aggressive trader. I’d often trade between 5 and 10% of my bank. I’m improving, but I guess it’s the gambler in me!

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@james-rome no problem mate, i think we have maybe seen these tipster like people telling you to lay said team or said horse at these prices, they seem to win alot of selections but actually they fail long term its just an illusion to draw traffic to their site etc. On here we dont have that because we encourage people to track trades from members and themselves to actually see if it is indeed long term profitable. You nailed it by saying its about long term profit and consistency to make profit over that period. The tips and tricks we all post on blogs and on here are just tools to help with consistency. There's a trade in every game, we just need to find the good ones. But trading at its core is getting on better prices and having a better strike rate long term than what the market is implying. The gap between markets implied % chance and your value of actual % chance is how big your edge is. That can be any odds as long as you have a decent edge.

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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

SHG suwon city vs gwangju (k league) 0-1 HT

GOAL! 1-1 good start have a couple lined up today, looks like a busy midweek

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@alan-steward yeah mate, i used to argue with myself about it all the time, only really totally understood until i tracked and saw it was actually all just relative. The thing i also agree on which is what i think you were meaning before is bank outlay on such trades, for that i understand but i think both keith and I would be classed as quite aggressive traders, we see that in keith doesnt trade out on those FHGs in those games and i stake above what is typically advised too, for me its getting most out a strategy for others thats just overstaking. Just depends on the traders style doesnt it, as with all things trading personal choice and views on risk are different to each individual. Not one person is wrong as long as they achieve profit.

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@darri

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-rome dont try to confuse yourself lad, trading is simply what is the actual strike rate of something and you then selecting a better price than it. The fact they are higher or lower just means your strike rate needs are changed. So lets say the market has priced an unders at 5.0 thats a 20% chance of that event happening according to market. Flip that to make that easier to understand, the market now thinks an over has 80% of happening its what i always do as my brain is too simple. Its then your strike rate with those odds in mind to gain your edge. People are often swayed away from odds because of what is traditionally promoted on forums and online. We must be getting on really low lays and backing really good prices. But actually its pigeon holing like that which stops creative thinking. We can still find edges at most prices.

Lets take an example. We have a SHG strategy. We are debating between two types of entries. When odds are 1.25 to back so 80% chance, we have a strike rate of 85%. When 2.0 we have 52% strike rate.

1.25: after 100 trades and backing with just 1 point = +5.8 points/% of bank
2.0: after 100 trades and backing with just 1 point = + 2.96 points/% of bank

Just because your then getting on better odds does not mean anything. We often measure these different odds based on number of wins needed to then make 1 loss back but if our strike rate does indeed cover it why wouldnt we take a strategy thats almost double the amount. Its just about your data and your actual strike rate compared to market odds.

Cheers mate that makes sense not going to lie i have fell for this its like a mental thing feels safer using lower odds but its all about long term profit and consistency. Good example learned alot cheers

Daniel Cooper

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@daniel-cooper said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I like the Laying Under 1.5 goal odds in the Manchester United v Leicester City match tonight. This match doesn't actually make my list today, but there's value there at 4.0.

I expect United to play a fairly weakened side tonight, before playing a full strength team against Liverpool on Thursday.

Did you have a list of Lay U1.5’s today?

S**t, forgot about these. Thanks for reminding me.

18:30 - Fenerbahce v Sivasspor
19:00 - Stockport v Dag & Red
19:45 - Napoli v Udinese

Haha no worries!

Akiva Anderson

@daniel-cooper said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I like the Laying Under 1.5 goal odds in the Manchester United v Leicester City match tonight. This match doesn't actually make my list today, but there's value there at 4.0.

I expect United to play a fairly weakened side tonight, before playing a full strength team against Liverpool on Thursday.

Did you have a list of Lay U1.5’s today?

S**t, forgot about these. Thanks for reminding me.

18:30 - Fenerbahce v Sivasspor
19:00 - Stockport v Dag & Red
19:45 - Napoli v Udinese

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@darri hi mate, yes fully understand strike rates and your right, odds are only relevant to strike rate... You could say it doesn't matter so much what odds you take as long as your selections perform better... Ie you take more green than red but obviously be in a position to replicate winning selections consistently

Daniel Cooper

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I like the Laying Under 1.5 goal odds in the Manchester United v Leicester City match tonight. This match doesn't actually make my list today, but there's value there at 4.0.

I expect United to play a fairly weakened side tonight, before playing a full strength team against Liverpool on Thursday.

Did you have a list of Lay U1.5’s today?