The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@eamonn-hogan cheers mate that’s a great help
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@ben-dobie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Can anybody tell me if there is much to play for in the Welsh league and NI premiership at this stage of their seasons, can never get my head round these promotion and relegation groups
Yes mate, similar to scotland. Rather than the teams playing each other 4 times and having to play 44 games, they play 3 times which makes 33 then 5 games in the split league making 38 games
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Can anybody tell me if there is much to play for in the Welsh league and NI premiership at this stage of their seasons, can never get my head round these promotion and relegation groups
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
FHG man city vs psg (to win 1pt) lets see if psg getting fergie talk helps them come out firing
GOAL!
So here is the example of what i mean Pre-Inplay-Price
Pre match stats look good for this to have a FHG 9/10 games home/away have had at least one FHG. PSG needed a goal on aggregate they were behind.
Inplay this match had a glaring danger, the pitch, what i didnt do was panic, i watched to see if it affected the flow of the game it didnt and psg were pressing.
Price was very good for a FHG between these two teams and really should have been below 1.3Its a simple model but always helps to filter out the games i do and dont like before/during a game. Just look for the things we dont like, if it affects or game then exit or leave.
you have a very good understanding of price too, something that comes with time and experience for sure
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
FHG man city vs psg (to win 1pt) lets see if psg getting fergie talk helps them come out firing
GOAL!
So here is the example of what i mean Pre-Inplay-Price
Pre match stats look good for this to have a FHG 9/10 games home/away have had at least one FHG. PSG needed a goal on aggregate they were behind.
Inplay this match had a glaring danger, the pitch, what i didnt do was panic, i watched to see if it affected the flow of the game it didnt and psg were pressing.
Price was very good for a FHG between these two teams and really should have been below 1.3Its a simple model but always helps to filter out the games i do and dont like before/during a game. Just look for the things we dont like, if it affects or game then exit or leave.
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
FHG man city vs psg (to win 1pt) lets see if psg getting fergie talk helps them come out firing
Wahey!
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@mark-maguire I have a very simple process albeit each stage has its own criteria. But if you go with pre-inplay-price then any game could have the same weight and i only ever trade when a game matches all 3 areas. If im entering anything with my own hard earned money it needs to be the highest quality picks. Thats assuming these are inplay trades, SHGs from HT onwards would fit this model
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FHG man city vs psg (to win 1pt) lets see if psg getting fergie talk helps them come out firing
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@mark-maguire just depends on what your definition of weak/medium/strong are. Example not a real one but just theory: leeds vs man utd, if stats show this game will have a 80% chance of a 2nd half goal, the inplay looks good, the price for your entry is say 1.5. This game is then a qualifier based on your historic data and testing of the strat. But lets say brighton vs burnley is also on that list. Same % chance, same inplay, but the price is then 1.6 are you then saying this game is then weaker or stronger than the leeds vs united game? Loads of factors to that. Thats why id suggest you keep it simple and forget the tiering. if its your own opinion on whether that game is stronger or weaker or if its data thats deciding is the question. Happy to help off this thread if you dont want to reply on here, send me a message if youd like or hop on the private coaching. If its shg trades ill happily help, those are my trades and area.
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@darri another good point and im doing some work at the moment on the impact of leaving the weak ones out..problem is when they work the odds are really good but definitely something I have to perfect is which games not to trade
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@mark-maguire careful with the tiered plans, if you think a game has a medium to weak chance why are you bothering to trade it? FOMO? Only ever do the games your most confident about.
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@mark-maguire however if they are different markets and different strategies then i dont mind having them on same game as long as they dont conflict. But in your example your doing same game and same market so just avoid cause your then not trading different strats just upping stakes on some games, which moves slightly into a risky trade. For example on a day you have 2 trades. Game 1 appears on all 3 filters, Game 2 on just one. Having them on all three does make it more likely it will win, but if your putting on more stake. This will affect your strategy/strike rates. On game 2 it loses and you lose 2% but game 1 loses and you lose 6% thats a big hike now to climb that back using just 2% staking. Just complicates the whole thing. Keep it simple. If a game is on all 3 just write it down as one game to trade with your usual stake just means the game is a good one to look at doesnt mean we add more money to it.
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2hg Ludogorets game 67 mins
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@matt-wood thanks matt
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@darri great stuff and makes complete sense the way you put it. I've got a staggered approach to staking already rating weak, medium and strong depending on odds and form and only fully stake on strong and during the game based on stats .. and perhaps I'll use the duplicate games as. further indicator of strength but stick with current max stake.. Thanks again
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@mark-maguire If they are for trades in the same market then no 3x staking isnt needed cause essentially the filters have all/at least 2 filters have picked same game. All you would do here is treat that game as one trade with normal staking. What to do here is just use them to find all the individual games, write down that list of games and trade with just one stake per game. So for example leeds vs man utd pops up on all 3 filters. Your bank is £100. And your typically staking 2points/2% (£2) of the bank on them per stake. What your proposing is to then stake 6points/6% (£6) i would not advise that, just stick to the 2 point/2% on that game. Essentially the role of the filters is to help identify the games to potentially trade. If these are for the same strategy dont treat them as separate make it more inclusive. If the filters are picking the same game bonus you now know that game has a better chance so make that game a priority dont then stake higher for that game. Each trade we do should have the same % chance of winning and therefore same staking. Key here is to diversify if you want to add multiple strategies dont pile them up on individual games on same market.
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@mark-maguire Personally for me I wouldn't do it as my bank is so small that such a big hit on a bad game would be REALLY bad.
Also take a look at those filters and look to see what the longest consecutive losing runs were, imagine if you were tripled up on those games during that run. Could your bank cope with that?
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@alan-steward Yea Im very wary of German 2nd tier as well, stats have to be tip top for me in that league!
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@Matt-Wood thanks mate yes thats my dilemma .. as you say it feels agressive, but equally if the numbers add up independently for the three filters should my mindset be to regard them as such. Its a newbie question I know but just interested in everyones thoughts
