The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Going for one final trade today. Laying under 1.5 in Lorient if still 1-0 70th. Plenty to play for still.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
SHG ac milan vs cagliari 0-0
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SHG Lille vs st etienne 0-0 HT
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After timing but it's a loss so sure it's ok. Explains where I went wrong today.
San Jose - laid under 1.5 - Win
Oostende - Laid under 1.5 FH goals after the 1st - Win
Utrecht - Laid under 2.5 while both teams drawing 2nd half. Neither team could give a fish's tit as they were 20 minutes away from going on holiday - Lose
Hammarby - Laid under 3.5 @ 1-2. Win
Legia - Laid under 1.5 - Neither team could give a fish's tit as they were 20 minutes away from going on holiday with nothing more to play for. To add to that the fans stormed the pitch and threw fireworks on no doubt celebrating. A 10 minute delay and no further score. Lose -
@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer not having go mate, sorry if it came across like that, always hard to try offer advice after games have happened if you get me always sounds after timed, but we have to do these things to learn. Yep if your as stubborn as me then you need to experience the mistakes yourself rather than one of us tell you. Whenever i post a reply giving advice i dont just always direct it at the individual but as a general piece of advice, because im sure others have done the same today. Just make a note for next year
I know mate, don't worry. Value all the input and advice. Just that I'm a stubborn bastard and I rally do need to find out the hard way haha!!
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@steve-sandell nice 3-0. Was just a min early for me though
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@steve-sandell said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHG Kansas v Vancouver currently 2-0
Goal 3-0
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SHG Kansas v Vancouver currently 2-0
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@richard-latimer not having go mate, sorry if it came across like that, always hard to try offer advice after games have happened if you get me always sounds after timed, but we have to do these things to learn. Yep if your as stubborn as me then you need to experience the mistakes yourself rather than one of us tell you. Whenever i post a reply giving advice i dont just always direct it at the individual but as a general piece of advice, because im sure others have done the same today. Just make a note for next year
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@Darri to be honest I was really just trying to say you were correct in that I need to make my own mistakes which is what you said to me the other day. I made them today and hopefully can move forward from here.
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer totally counter that thought of too much weight, for me i reckon its more important than stats at this stage of season. If over the season you have been trading using filters to help and therefore your selections are filtered based on seasonal data, then this means that throughout the season teams have had something to play for. Its always been a factor. The last 4 games and teams not having something to play for means they couldnt care less. Stick to the same process as before dont add in games just for sake of it. If a game is on your sheets make sure a team has something to play for. Its a risk factor and as traders we are trying to reduce risk its what separates us from gamblers. Totally counter your thing of its too much weight, did you see today alisson keeper coming up for a 94th min corner when they are drawing 1-1. atletico madrid scoring 2 in last 5 mins to keep title going, real madrid going for it in the 2nd half. You can be defensive and say its not a factor but you have 2 examples there of games to avoid if you say they have nothing to play for why are you trading it? Your data is based on what they have done when they had something to play for so its battling against your data. Its the data and risk we must protect.
You're absolutely right on today's games. Should never have got involved. Fans coming on to the pitch to celebrate in Poland I guess.
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@ryan massive result keeps their season alive! Did you see that that was the first time in Liverpool history that their goalkeeper has scored a competitive goal!
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@richard-latimer also remember this is the most random period in terms of amount of goals scored, types of teams winning under pressure and teams caving under pressure. All factors we have to measure for risk. Maybe look to stake less on the games with little motivation and keep the main stakes for the games that do? I know from looking at my data because im a goals trader that nothing much has really changed in terms of amount of goals in fact its more, just odds are horrendous at times with market expectations. Just an idea if your still wanting to trade your data, stake half as much on the non motivation based or leave alone, and then keep your normal stakes for your motivational ones.
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@richard-latimer totally counter that thought of too much weight, for me i reckon its more important than stats at this stage of season. If over the season you have been trading using filters to help and therefore your selections are filtered based on seasonal data, then this means that throughout the season teams have had something to play for. Its always been a factor. The last 4 games and teams not having something to play for means they couldnt care less. Stick to the same process as before dont add in games just for sake of it. If a game is on your sheets make sure a team has something to play for. Its a risk factor and as traders we are trying to reduce risk its what separates us from gamblers. Totally counter your thing of its too much weight, did you see today alisson keeper coming up for a 94th min corner when they are drawing 1-1. atletico madrid scoring 2 in last 5 mins to keep title going, real madrid going for it in the 2nd half. You can be defensive and say its not a factor but you have 2 examples there of games to avoid if you say they have nothing to play for why are you trading it? Your data is based on what they have done when they had something to play for so its battling against your data. Its the data and risk we must protect.
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It's been said that I have to make my own mistakes and this is true. While I think possibly too much weight could be put on motivation and having things to play for when looking for goals.....maybe when it comes down to the final 20 minutes of a season and there is nothing at stake perhaps it's best left alone.
Utrecht and Legia have failed in this respect and without them I'd be looking at an ok day.
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@karl-mccarthy real go top and got better head to head so even if they draw not enough
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Are Ath going to throw this away?
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@karl-mccarthy said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Going for late goal Ath Madrid 0-0
Nice and quick.
