The BTC Football Trading Thread

[A Former User]

Walsall on LTD also but not as s&f

[A Former User]

@lee-snape

Looks like a good day. I had Benfica on the ltd.

Just got one game for tonight though which is Wrexham, I’ve placed a order of 5 on the LTD

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

One for Tuesday. Lay Under 1.5:

1-1

[Akiva Anderson]

I'm back!! Spent a week in Paris as my daughter was performing at Disneyland Paris. Glad to be home - those alcohol prices was frighten ya!!

I actually did a little trading, not much as I had been drinking!

Have I missed anything?!

[A Former User]

My results from yesterday which arent from my strategy because I'm on call this week and had to set some Let it Run trades which i felt comfortable on.

[A Former User]

Afternoon guys and good luck today

[A Former User]

@david-milligan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I have a question for people using the SHG filter;

If strike rate is approximately 85% and for sake of argument we are laying the correct score as our entry into the market, we need the odds to be less than 5% (i.e. implied probability of 20%) to give us an edge on the market.

Does this sound sensible? Has anyone done this in practice? For example the Benfica match yesterday, 0-0 at half time was up around 7s

It doesn’t always work like that unfortunately! I do agree that it’s wise to set an odds limit (I personally avoid games less than 1.20 to back but I only actually enter at minimum 1.26 by queuing) but you could actually find that all of the games which are under 1.2 are winners, this by removing them it actually skews the strike rate

So like Martin said just test it for a while and set your own odds limit, based on a combination of your best guess of the data and what is comfortable for you

[Martin]

@david-milligan work out your average odds and work out your odds limits, then test. Best advice I can give on any strategy to be honest

[David Milligan]

I have a question for people using the SHG filter;

If strike rate is approximately 85% and for sake of argument we are laying the correct score as our entry into the market, we need the odds to be less than 5.0 (i.e. implied probability of 20%) to give us an edge on the market.

Does this sound sensible? Has anyone done this in practice? For example the Benfica match yesterday, 0-0 at half time was up around 7s

[Richard Latimer]

One for Tuesday. Lay Under 1.5:

[A Former User]

No Trades for me tonight, I'm on call and have to go out

Good luck all

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Just the one tonight. Lay Under 1.5 Jong Ajax

These are some fun odds!! I'll be leaving it unmatched @ 11.0
I'm not crazy. My data is 28 without loss over the odds of 7.0

The other thing to keep in mind is that 26 of those have been over 2.5

2-0

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Just the one tonight. Lay Under 1.5 Jong Ajax

These are some fun odds!! I'll be leaving it unmatched @ 11.0
I'm not crazy. My data is 28 without loss over the odds of 7.0

The other thing to keep in mind is that 26 of those have been over 2.5

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Just the one tonight. Lay Under 1.5 Jong Ajax

These are some fun odds!! I'll be leaving it unmatched @ 11.0
I'm not crazy. My data is 28 without loss over the odds of 7.0

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer

Nice Richard, once I have mastered my under 2.5 goals strategy I will automate it to run 24-7, my eventual plan.

[A Former User]

@matthew-harrison

Yeah, I think you will struggle with that one, signed a center-forward on loan from Wolves, and has 2 goals in 3 games so far.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm purely set and forget. I don't want to be tied to my screen and making decision inplay anymore.

[A Former User]

@lee-snape said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer

Have you looked at Benfica vs Boavista? I have them as a possible over 1.5 after 10 mins

Benfica come up as a LTD candidate but odds aren’t in range. Currently at 9.5 so would need a drop of 4.5 which is very unlikely

[A Former User]

@nick-allan

I always go with my gut feeling in-play and try not to depend on 1 outcome unless I'm superconfident.

[Nick Allan]

@lee-snape thanks buddy but i was just curious as im thinking of implementing a few inplay strats, but i have some interview prep to do