The BTC Football Trading Thread

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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Silkeborg seem to be hitting most of my watched SHG filters today although not the one I've recently been posting (none again today)... I think it's certainly one to watch

Its on mine too but i find Denmark to be so hit and miss - im not sure why!

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Silkeborg seem to be hitting most of my watched SHG filters today although not the one I've recently been posting (none again today)... I think it's certainly one to watch

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@ryan So true... Many of the simple trades aren't sexy... But they are bloody effective

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Morning all, just this one on my list for an SHG today:

11am - J-League - Sapporo - Sagan Tosu

Will most likely be watching the Europa League final too to see if opportunity presents itself.

Closing out May +14.7 points up - well pleased with that!

Ryan

For me I have repeated the same things for years....

'Trading can be as simple or as complicated as you make it'

I've been slated by so called other traders for years because I use the LTD - but it works, Ive been profitable for over ten years

Keep it simple - if it works for you don't worry about it, enjoy it.

There is talk out there that trading needs to be like being chased by a tiger while being set on fire - it doesn't need to be that scary or dramatic. Often the easiest and simplest ways of making profit on Betfair are in front of us but they aren't sexy.

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@karl-mccarthy Hi mate with Keith's selections as Darri has said and Keith will state "Set & Forget" every day of the week... His strike rate is phenomenal.

I've taken Keith on trading his selections against his set & forget... It was bit of a Hare & Tortoise affair... But not only was Keith's way much simpler and slightly more profitable it was easier on the 6 inches between the ears.

I know split stakes (o1.5) inside out and now have my own successful variation of the theme, I'm even working on perfecting split stakes on o2.5 (some of my filters are that strong) but with Keith's strike rate it's a no brainer... Set & forget

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@liam-willis Well put mate. We all at one stage run into some sort of master strategy idea that no one else has spotted, its so obscure for a reason the amount of smart minds that enter betfair trading over the years have looked into it. Im not saying there arent new ways to make money/more money. All im saying is look around at the pro traders or those posting consistent greens over long term. How simple are their trades? They are almost too basic. The major thing here is for me that i learnt, simplicity isnt a negative view or deemed as playing safe, its actually what id call smart trading. If you have something thats super easy to understand, it then becomes easily repeatable trade after trade after trade. The more complicated your strategy hence why i referred to richards sheet of scenarios, the harder it is to follow each game and the more likely you are to make a mistake. Look at the simplicity of keiths selections and today as an example. We all could have traded plenty of unique strategies on that game, enhancing the profit or beating how much keith made on it. Yet the thing is by trying to trade more uniquely we then add risk when it wasnt needed. How simple was it that keith placed this pre match and let it run. Yes potentially you could have made more profit in the game itself but you have to look at would the extra effort of trading around that trade have been worth it, would the extra effort have been more risk added too. Its not to target people individually but we all go through a cycle at some stage of trying to over complicate everything, i did. For me try think less about being obscure and just focus on finding something reliable that involves very little variables, something thats so basic you can repeat trade after trade, something that can be scalable, so a good liquid market and build data around that. Honestly if your trading is that simple yet profitable there really isnt any need for these GOLDEN strategies. Its a false hope we get sold at times of beating the markets yet actually the big/pro traders arent doing anything fancy they just do the basics but do them well and consistently well and in fact that is what beating the markets truly is. Just look around this forum, how easy are mine, alans, btc lads and keiths picks? Very very basic yet very very consistent long term. There is plenty of edges to build into these basic markets, its not as simple as ill just SHG this game etc, there are variables to look at but the more obscure you go into that the harder it will be to repeat. You dont need an obscure strategy to beat the markets you just need something that reliable and consistent that you can repeat game after game, the more complicated the more error prone and in turn the more demanding mentally it will have, which for anyone wanting to do this long term will want to avoid the extra complications (burnout) trust us we have been there, at least i have over the years. Keep it simple lads.

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@karl-mccarthy the thing here is mate why the need? these are making profit consistently with zero inplay effort on your part. You then looking to trade out is just taking away the simplicity of this. Maybe there is something in looking at when a goal goes in before 30 mins then cash out? But in all honesty i think just letting these run as set and forgets will be good for consistent profit and for everyones mental state. Adding exits on things that already work as full set and forgets is just for me an added extra that is gonna make you then be active. Like the theme of alot of the advice tonight keep it simple, if you dont need to add something then dont.

Daniel Cooper

@daniel-cooper said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@karl-mccarthy said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson That second goal took its time but I had cashed out not long after the first (for .75 point) and almost got in at the end but was too late. Would be interested to know other people’s approach for u1.5, ie stake and liability, let it run for 2nd, remove liability or just cash out after first goal when market settles?

With Keiths I let them run, its more profitable. With Ryans O1.5 I cash out as prescribed

This being said - the last 100 results would’ve been very profitable to let run or just remove red

Daniel Cooper

@karl-mccarthy said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson That second goal took its time but I had cashed out not long after the first (for .75 point) and almost got in at the end but was too late. Would be interested to know other people’s approach for u1.5, ie stake and liability, let it run for 2nd, remove liability or just cash out after first goal when market settles?

With Keiths I let them run, its more profitable. With Ryans O1.5 I cash out as prescribed

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@karl-mccarthy I've been leting them run

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@keith-anderson That second goal took its time but I had cashed out not long after the first (for .75 point) and almost got in at the end but was too late. Would be interested to know other people’s approach for u1.5, ie stake and liability, let it run for 2nd, remove liability or just cash out after first goal when market settles?

Richard Latimer

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Lay Under 1.5 Goals: - RESULTS -

20:15 - KR Reykjavik v Kopavogur - FT 1-1

Matched. The chance KR missed before the equaliser was horrendous! Had me sweating a bit!!

My own team, Glentoran, clinched European Qualification tonight. We enter the qualifying rounds and normally get put out!! It's the financial side of it that's important

I didn't watch any of it. I saw it went 2-0 in the FH and then quickly corrected.

Eamonn Hogan

I was also on the VR Reykjavik game.

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Lay Under 1.5 Goals: - RESULTS -

20:15 - KR Reykjavik v Kopavogur - FT 1-1

Matched. The chance KR missed before the equaliser was horrendous! Had me sweating a bit!!

My own team, Glentoran, clinched European Qualification tonight. We enter the qualifying rounds and normally get put out!! It's the financial side of it that's important

Akiva Anderson

Lay Under 1.5 Goals: - RESULTS -

20:15 - KR Reykjavik v Kopavogur - FT 1-1

Matched. The chance KR missed before the equaliser was horrendous! Had me sweating a bit!!

My own team, Glentoran, clinched European Qualification tonight. We enter the qualifying rounds and normally get put out!! It's the financial side of it that's important

Richard Latimer

Small loss. Almost scratch. 6 more days and then I'll assess. Any profit in those 6 days and I'll keep going for another week at least. Assess after each week. If it's not making green consistently I'll find something that will and carry on with this in the background.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

At least until the end of the month I'm continuing to follow what I have been doing. After that I'll assess.

Laid under 1.5 FH in KR Reykjavik game @ 2.12

Thought I had it then. Stupid score corrections haha!

Not to be this time. I know it seems a strange strategy but if you look at Soccerway for example, it's amazing how many 2nd FH goals come after an early goal.

I'm sure it won't get there but if it does I'll back a 70th minute goal in this game.

Lay under 1.5 matched @ 2.36

It got there in the end. Curiously enough, the other potential I had which could have been an under 1.5 lay if I choose to go that way also came through. That one is 2-1 now (Vikingur)

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

At least until the end of the month I'm continuing to follow what I have been doing. After that I'll assess.

Laid under 1.5 FH in KR Reykjavik game @ 2.12

Thought I had it then. Stupid score corrections haha!

Not to be this time. I know it seems a strange strategy but if you look at Soccerway for example, it's amazing how many 2nd FH goals come after an early goal.

I'm sure it won't get there but if it does I'll back a 70th minute goal in this game.

Lay under 1.5 matched @ 2.36

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

At least until the end of the month I'm continuing to follow what I have been doing. After that I'll assess.

Laid under 1.5 FH in KR Reykjavik game @ 2.12

Thought I had it then. Stupid score corrections haha!

Not to be this time. I know it seems a strange strategy but if you look at Soccerway for example, it's amazing how many 2nd FH goals come after an early goal.

I'm sure it won't get there but if it does I'll back a 70th minute goal in this game.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

At least until the end of the month I'm continuing to follow what I have been doing. After that I'll assess.

Laid under 1.5 FH in KR Reykjavik game @ 2.12

Thought I had it then. Stupid score corrections haha!

Not to be this time. I know it seems a strange strategy but if you look at Soccerway for example, it's amazing how many 2nd FH goals come after an early goal.