The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Having a rather up and down month myself, first time in a long time not getting any real long runs of good results. Still been a quality last few months so variance just keeping me in check, just doesnt look like it will be the usual 20-30% bank rise like normal, last month was 89% bank rise of which 40% of that was football last month. Trading gods determined to mock me this month by making it a small one should still be a profit come end of month but small one. Hopefully with the euros/copa america as extras this year will mean ill keep the bank driving upwards. Just end of season drab for me so far
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals:
17:00 - Viking v Mjondalen
19:00 - Molde v ValerengaViking v Mjondalen - odds are available pre-kick off. Mjondalen are likely to put men behind the ball.
Molde v Valerenga - We'll have to wait for desirable odds in-play
Lay Under 1.5 Goals: - RESULTS -
17:00 - Viking v Mjondalen - FT: 2-1
19:00 - Molde v Valerenga - FT: 2-3Matched on the Viking v Mjondalen match.
Unmatched on the Molde v Valerenga match
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
SHG toulouse vs nantes 1-2 HT
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals:
17:00 - Viking v Mjondalen
19:00 - Molde v ValerengaViking v Mjondalen - odds are available pre-kick off. Mjondalen are likely to put men behind the ball.
Molde v Valerenga - We'll have to wait for desirable odds in-play
Nice shout mate, been real busy today but got on the Viking game... Guessing Molde didn't reach odds pre KO
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Going for SHG in Sarpsborg match. 0-0 HT
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Ill do a proper sit down at the weekend and then update on what iv done pre tournament, will be belgium and england to win their groups and then likely a dutch of a few teams to win outright. Then as tournament goes into the latter stages start to hedge against those positions via the individual matches and get into a risk free positions. However all speculation right now apart from the group winners so ill leave it for today and report back later, just wanted to see what people are thinking of trading wise, not so much the punts.
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@darri I was just looking at Italy and their possible route thinking it looked good. I'm not too clued up on their national team as well as I used to be so a little research on that first.
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So far from what i can see italy, should they win their group could have a fairly good journey to the quarter finals. So that price (12.5) could come down reasonably before then
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@richard-latimer add to that if they do win their group they have to probably play france, germany or portugal in the last 16 round, not ideal but that would be where the big swing would be price wise, england beat any of those and market bias would be unreal.
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England are always way too short in terms of price. Only need a bunch of patriotic flag shaggers and the price comes crashing in haha!
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@matt-wood that group is just too unpredictable to see a clear roadmap for them, if they get into 3rd spot could be a tie against holland or belgium next round, if they get 2nd its then englands group winners. For me that group is too much speculation and too much can happen. Probably better outright to look for a safer team to at least have a safer route to win their group and then go from there with the roadmaps.
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Just before this goes with opinions, try to remember price/value and keep this trading related, in a way i should have setup its own thread before i posted the question
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With the squad that Southgate has picked and the group itself, getting out of the group will be the best we can hope for even with the incentive of latter stages at a full Wembley we are miles behind the likes of Belgium and France.
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@james-rome The Portugal group is very difficult and ill be avoiding that entire group of teams, for me i think england are actually too short as an outright pre tournament (6.4) Thats why iv gone with the group winners instead (remember im scottish so traders hat on here) Croatia arent the same quality they were before, that team hasnt aged well enough, england have and i can see either czech or scotland stealing points from them. I dont see englands price moving massively given the 3 teams involved in that group. If england were to beat a top 5 nation on the way id then say that they will shorten massively as the hype rises but not too much movement from the groups. If both my group winners win ill then reinvest that into a planned roadmap nation and scalp along the way. Still to see the roadmaps for each group yet but will do over weekend after my cricket.
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Anyone having any trades/bets on the euros pre tournament? Would be good to see what everyone is looking at. Im sure bookies will lump us a few free bets to entice. But also for traders who like the outrights what we looking at? Good to see some ideas.
So far i have:
Group winners: Belgium and England, both good prices and offers good hedging opportunities in the individual matches as both likely to be fav each gameIll have a look at potential roadmaps over the weekend and try see a potential long trade
I am thinking of laying England if they get out of the group... Tempted to back then lay but I just got this guy feeling about the Croatia game that it may not go well so I am going to wait. My thinking is England will probably go out but if they don't I won't care if I lose as England will have won
My dark horse to win is Portugal squad is strong and flopp would be Spain very old squad
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@richard-latimer not gonna turn it into a to and fro mate, but did he actually get a chance or was it one or two mistakes then everyone jumped on him and thats how we remember him? The pressure on goalkeepers is unbelievable one or two slips and your gone, TAA can have 20 crosses into the box and none hit all game yet if hart passes wayward once or twice his whole career is over. Thats the point im making im not saying he was world class, it was yourself that said he was firmly a city keeper and England no 1, was saying that his career is a great example of one or two bad mistakes the get over analysed and then suddenly he is a rotten keeper even tho he helped win city the prem with some great saves, that was my point.
Anyway this chat isnt really for this thread, just shows that we are all to itchy for the euros and summer leagues to kick in and back to daily trading.
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer i think its because there are far fewer spaces for keepers too, can only have 1 keeper in a game and unlikely to have 2 keepers on the bench. Therefore we remember the fails of keepers more. Its like in trading, we actually forget about the easy wins (hopefully numerous) yet over analyse the losses (hopefully seldom) but they sting more, its the same with keepers, no one really cares too much about the clean sheets or the easy saves they do every game at these big clubs yet when it comes to the crunch big moment we remember them all too well. Outfielders get way more chances because you have squad depth at teams and everyone always wants a better right back so easy to go get a rebound career transfer, look at that capoue and moreno last night, both fell out of favour over here yet just won the Europa league at a team who wanted to revive their careers, not many keepers get that opportunity, hart sadly went from a city team with almost 70% possession per game to burnley who'd rather defend, also had spells at torino (not a big club) west ham and spurs all of which already had good goalkeepers so its not as if he got a chance. Its just we remember them because there are so few of them, easier to remember, rather than thinking of capoue or moreno who had the same slump.
Wasn't Hart replaced at City due to his less than stellar ability to play out from the back. More of an old school type than the desired attributes of a top keeper moving into the modern day.
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Anyone having any trades/bets on the euros pre tournament? Would be good to see what everyone is looking at. Im sure bookies will lump us a few free bets to entice. But also for traders who like the outrights what we looking at? Good to see some ideas.
So far i have:
Group winners: Belgium and England, both good prices and offers good hedging opportunities in the individual matches as both likely to be fav each gameIll have a look at potential roadmaps over the weekend and try see a potential long trade
