The BTC Football Trading Thread

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@alan-steward I laid under 1.5 goals in this match, expected a few goals in the second half, when city's second goal went in on 92nd minute it was clearly offside so knew it would be overturned and gave up on it, couldn't believe it when Victory got a final second equaliser.....

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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

SHG Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City CS 0-0

City have been struggling of late and somehow Victory have pulled out some credible results considering their previous form this season... Stranger things happen but don't see this game finishing 0-0

0-1... Reckon there's more to come in this match

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Back from a sunny week in Pembrokeshire... Lovely place very clean and tidy, always helps when the sun is out but highly recommend for a staycation.

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SHG Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City CS 0-0

City have been struggling of late and somehow Victory have pulled out some credible results considering their previous form this season... Stranger things happen but don't see this game finishing 0-0

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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

SHG newcastle vs perth 0-1 HT

I wont be able to post the update till after cricket today, its a snooze fest day in the football otherwise so good luck all and dont get caught out chasing in quiet periods, stick to your plans

BOOM! ended 1-1 and goal came 70th min, nice winner to come home to

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@daniel-cooper I do both on my two strategies. One is to win 1pt the other is a max liability. For me pre match stuff i look to win 1pt and with inplay stuff when prices fluctuate so much and you have a clearer idea of whats going on, be more aggressive and lay for a max liability. It rewards you to take lower prices so the wins are bigger. Its a personal choice one, for me if im fully confident in my strategy its to a max liability and if im playing it defensive ie pre match im laying to win 1pt, keeps the liability controllable.

Akiva Anderson

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Absolute s**t again today football wise. Can't wait to the Euros start.

Nothing from my Lay Under 1.5 goals today.

Couple of things I do fancy:

16:00 - Notts County v Chesterfield - Will have a lay of Under 1.5 Goals. It's an elimination Playoff match (Sounds American)! Could be goals.Odds are low, but that probably reflects the poor league average for over 1.5 goals

17:30 - Larne v Cliftonville - Whoever wins qualifies for Europe. Will probably Lay Under 1.5 goals in this match too. Larne are a good price at EVENS. Larne are a full-time team, Cliftonville are part-time and Cliftonville's semi-final match went into extra time mid week. I'll be beacking Larne and Laying Under 1.5 Goals

Again, these are more gambles than trades. At your own peril.

I’d be shocked if there wasn’t a SHG in this match. Quite a good game. Under 1.5 goals lay came in after 30 mins

I’ve moved my profit to the Larne v Cliftonville match.

Great day, considering there was no football!

Notts County v Chesterfield: Lay Under 1.5 Goals
Larne v Cliftonville: Back Larne to win at 2.14
Larne v Cliftonville: Lay Under 1.5 Goals

Daniel Cooper

@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@daniel-cooper said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Howdy folks. I'm confident this has been discussed many times over, so apologies for the repeat questions - can't find other posts about it.

I think we all work in "points" i.e. we make trades based on X number of points of our bank. I find the majority of my trades are Lays nowadays, and an awful lot of these are outrights - trades that I don't go in to with no intention of trading out - I think this is very common on the forum nowadays.

So, question, those of you that use Lays most of the time like myself - do you Lay to win X pts or Lay risking X pts liabililty? So, if you're a 1 pt trader, do you Lay to win a pt or risk a pt in liabililty?

Hope that makes sense. Would like to know your rationale behind your decisions!

While we're here, if I have a strike rate, is there an easy way to calculate the minimum Lay Price in order to make profit/break even?

Thanks folks

Calculate the lay odds:

You can do this in two easy steps, which could be combined into one excel formula:

Take your strike rate and divide by 100. Then divide that into 1

e.g. 50% 1/(50/100)= 2

convert back odds to lay odds-

1+(1/(back odds-1))

Example strike rate 86%

Back odds = 1/(86/100)= 1.16
Lay odds = 1+(1/(1.16-1))= 7.25

Cheers Stuart! I appreciate this

Stuart Capstick

@daniel-cooper said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Howdy folks. I'm confident this has been discussed many times over, so apologies for the repeat questions - can't find other posts about it.

I think we all work in "points" i.e. we make trades based on X number of points of our bank. I find the majority of my trades are Lays nowadays, and an awful lot of these are outrights - trades that I don't go in to with no intention of trading out - I think this is very common on the forum nowadays.

So, question, those of you that use Lays most of the time like myself - do you Lay to win X pts or Lay risking X pts liabililty? So, if you're a 1 pt trader, do you Lay to win a pt or risk a pt in liabililty?

Hope that makes sense. Would like to know your rationale behind your decisions!

While we're here, if I have a strike rate, is there an easy way to calculate the minimum Lay Price in order to make profit/break even?

Thanks folks

Calculate the lay odds:

You can do this in two easy steps, which could be combined into one excel formula:

Take your strike rate and divide by 100. Then divide that into 1

e.g. 50% 1/(50/100)= 2

convert back odds to lay odds-

1+(1/(back odds-1))

Example strike rate 86%

Back odds = 1/(86/100)= 1.16
Lay odds = 1+(1/(1.16-1))= 7.25

Daniel Cooper

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@daniel-cooper Personally I always back (such as next overs) in even points which gives me a varying profit, or if laying (LTD) I will lay to win 1 pt which obviously gives me varying liability. Im not exactly sure why I do it this way but in the scheme of things I don’t think it overly matters, so long as my liability doesn’t go above my maximum

https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

Cheers Lee! I appreciate your input! That link is helpful. A bit of googling helped me to work out that my minimum odds of 1.35 to Back are equavalent to 3.85 to lay! Happy days I used this: http://www.bettingtools.co.uk/back-lay-equivs

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@daniel-cooper Personally I always back (such as next overs) in even points which gives me a varying profit, or if laying (LTD) I will lay to win 1 pt which obviously gives me varying liability. Im not exactly sure why I do it this way but in the scheme of things I don’t think it overly matters, so long as my liability doesn’t go above my maximum

https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

Daniel Cooper

Howdy folks. I'm confident this has been discussed many times over, so apologies for the repeat questions - can't find other posts about it.

I think we all work in "points" i.e. we make trades based on X number of points of our bank. I find the majority of my trades are Lays nowadays, and an awful lot of these are outrights - trades that I don't go in to with no intention of trading out - I think this is very common on the forum nowadays.

So, question, those of you that use Lays most of the time like myself - do you Lay to win X pts or Lay risking X pts liabililty? So, if you're a 1 pt trader, do you Lay to win a pt or risk a pt in liabililty?

Hope that makes sense. Would like to know your rationale behind your decisions!

While we're here, if I have a strike rate, is there an easy way to calculate the minimum Lay Price in order to make profit/break even?

Thanks folks

Akiva Anderson

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Absolute s**t again today football wise. Can't wait to the Euros start.

Nothing from my Lay Under 1.5 goals today.

Couple of things I do fancy:

16:00 - Notts County v Chesterfield - Will have a lay of Under 1.5 Goals. It's an elimination Playoff match (Sounds American)! Could be goals.Odds are low, but that probably reflects the poor league average for over 1.5 goals

17:30 - Larne v Cliftonville - Whoever wins qualifies for Europe. Will probably Lay Under 1.5 goals in this match too. Larne are a good price at EVENS. Larne are a full-time team, Cliftonville are part-time and Cliftonville's semi-final match went into extra time mid week. I'll be beacking Larne and Laying Under 1.5 Goals

Again, these are more gambles than trades. At your own peril.

I’d be shocked if there wasn’t a SHG in this match. Quite a good game. Under 1.5 goals lay came in after 30 mins

I’ve moved my profit to the Larne v Cliftonville match.

Matt Wood

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Jesus! This is boring!!

Yep! So bad Ive had to do some household jobs!!!

Akiva Anderson

Jesus! This is boring!!

Eamonn Hogan

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

SHG newcastle vs perth 0-1 HT

I wont be able to post the update till after cricket today, its a snooze fest day in the football otherwise so good luck all and dont get caught out chasing in quiet periods, stick to your plans

Boom well done

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SHG newcastle vs perth 0-1 HT

I wont be able to post the update till after cricket today, its a snooze fest day in the football otherwise so good luck all and dont get caught out chasing in quiet periods, stick to your plans

Akiva Anderson

Absolute s**t again today football wise. Can't wait to the Euros start.

Nothing from my Lay Under 1.5 goals today.

Couple of things I do fancy:

16:00 - Notts County v Chesterfield - Will have a lay of Under 1.5 Goals. It's an elimination Playoff match (Sounds American)! Could be goals.Odds are low, but that probably reflects the poor league average for over 1.5 goals

17:30 - Larne v Cliftonville - Whoever wins qualifies for Europe. Will probably Lay Under 1.5 goals in this match too. Larne are a good price at EVENS. Larne are a full-time team, Cliftonville are part-time and Cliftonville's semi-final match went into extra time mid week. I'll be beacking Larne and Laying Under 1.5 Goals

Again, these are more gambles than trades. At your own peril.

Steve Sandell

@steve-sandell said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Going to Lay U1.5 Uruguay v Paraguay World Cup qualification game both teams hanging on to qualification so both need a win
Also both teams gone O1.5 in there last 4 matches except 1 Paraguay game finished 0-1 with a missed penalty
Paraguay ave 1.5 goals at home & 1.3 away
Uruguay ave 1.8 goals at home & 1.8 away
currently 3.05 to lay u1.5

Will sit and wait at 2.96

0-0 damp squib on to the next

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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Will also be trading the plus 2 goal market for SH in Macarthur match.

Macarthur like a home BTTS

o2.5 Goal Market
0.2pts @1.8
0.2pts @2.8
0.2pts @3.8

Queued Lay u1.5 Goals
0.32pts @1.8
0.32pts @1.5

0-2

Not a lot of traction there, only 1 part matched... Took green as Wellington may try and sit this out although do fancy the Macarthur goal