The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@alan-steward Thanks Alan. I did say I'd re-assess at the end of the month but of course in that time pretty much zero, zilch, nada happened other than a bunch of oh so nearly trades that won giving more positive data to the collection.
That being said I'll re-assess once more at the end of June once I've hopefully got a few more actual trades under the belt.
I don't want everyone to think I'm only hitting high scores. This isn't the case at all. Simply not ruling them out immediately.
For example 2 and 3 FHG also incredibly rare but when paired with early goals it's becomes a lot less rare.
You only have to look through a bunch of results on soccerway to see that most games with an early goal have at least one more in the half. Not all but a much larger amount than if you go past a certain point in the half.
Anyway, I can only let the results speak for themselves and if they don't I'm not to proud to come away and move to something less complex while I keep collecting data. I can't be too proud.
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@Richard-Latimer And more quality points right here... Again I've bolded them
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Well the advice is there if you choose to take it, I know we have to make our own mistakes but after making these mistakes we have to convert to a certain way of doing it - the path that lots of decent traders are suggesting you follow. There’s not many traders starting at the bottom (myself included) that can come in and do things a whole lot different to the pros
I think it’d be easier to assist with your data if it was a collection of data which you said ‘this looks great for LCS on 70’ or ‘this looks great for FH goals’ then people could maybe look and suggest a tweak. What you’re asking is probably for someone to look at your data with a completely different mindset to how they would normally assess data which is obviously hard to do.
Anyway, good luck with it, this is just my 2 cents worth and like I said, it wasn’t intended to be criticism, just something I realised in my recent hiatus which I think you’d do well to realise aswell
We'd all love to help with your data mate but I've looked at it and it's far too busy to get inside and offer enough advice to make it profitable for you... You need to do that yourself... But only trade it when you can see it's profitable.
In the meantime trading Ryans Split Stake or/and Garys SHG will help you become profitable
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@Richard-Latimer There's some quality info here mate and @Darri has hit the nail on the head with what seems relative to your current strat... I've bolded it below
@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer the chances of a game going from a simple 3.5 trade which id say happens 30-40% of games to then a 5.5 trade which id say is less than 20% of time is quite significant, add to that this is then a 3 goal SHG which adds to the rareness. The odds your taking are not matching that change. Hence why im saying your making this so complex for yourself. I will have a look later but im not wanting to get into specifics too much. Im just concerned that perhaps the advice offered was brushed off too easily from others (me, keith and alan) who are doing this consistently, all of us saying the same thing too and wanted to give one last attempt at helping again. Ill leave it here and can chat privately to not clog up the thread, just be careful mate not to get trapped in that vicious cycle again. Keep this so simple, iv ditched my late goal trades for a far more peaceful trading plan, your even seeing likes of keith doing the same. Please see that and not just ignore it.
I have data which is post COVID showing the following numbers
Measured over 5949 games;
1 SHG 79%
2 SHG 44%
3 SHG 20%
4 SHG 7%You say you're trying to be dynamic with your data to find the right games well in my mind it's such a small window I can't see it being that profitable... Coupled with that to profit from the above numbers your offered odds need to be inside of the probability of the above numbers... Are they... Maybe not???
It's possible to find consistent probable games with more that 1 SHG @Lee-woodman has created a very good filter for that but there's also one freely available to you in the members section of the Stats software... Gary's SHG
The last time I measured it's performance was as follows (straight out of the box with no additional filtering, but to my list of leagues which I can offer freely to anybody who'd like them)
Data measured from 1st August 2020 - End Feb 2021
SHG post 59mins Betfair time 77%
SHG post 45mins Betfair time 85%If you had layed every match on Garys filter post COVID (August-End Feb) you'd be just over 45pts green (avg 7.5pts per mth)
Coupled with similar available profits from say Ryans Split Stake your bank could be quite healthy right now.
We all want you to succeed mate and we're all asking you the same thing... Stick to a proven filter until yours can perform better
Please listen to what we're asking you to do...
You can succeed at this
You can easily become a profitable trader
You can do this!!!
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@lee-woodman cheers Lee. Like I said, I will only keep going so far with it without making serious coin.
If/when that deadline is reached I'll switch to something tried and tested while I continue to collect data.
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@richard-latimer Well the advice is there if you choose to take it, I know we have to make our own mistakes but after making these mistakes we have to convert to a certain way of doing it - the path that lots of decent traders are suggesting you follow. There’s not many traders starting at the bottom (myself included) that can come in and do things a whole lot different to the pros
I think it’d be easier to assist with your data if it was a collection of data which you said ‘this looks great for LCS on 70’ or ‘this looks great for FH goals’ then people could maybe look and suggest a tweak. What you’re asking is probably for someone to look at your data with a completely different mindset to how they would normally assess data which is obviously hard to do.
Anyway, good luck with it, this is just my 2 cents worth and like I said, it wasn’t intended to be criticism, just something I realised in my recent hiatus which I think you’d do well to realise aswell
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In the meantime I would still like people to take a look at the spreadsheet which I've filtered to show only qualifying trades.
There's a lot of info on there and for me it has been highly illuminating.
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I think if I'm not seeing good returns by the end of June this is exactly what I'll do.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer Darri is spot on with a lot of advice and I think you will realise it at some point, or at least I hope you do. I think it’s a tough approach to look at a certain data set and try to find as many different angles in it, especially as some are quite specific. I appreciate you are trying to be quite dynamic but I really think your best approach would be to trade one or two strategies that are working and then collate your own data separately on the side. Then rather than analysing and tweaking the data after every few games just wait until you have a LOT of data and see what it looks good for. You can check out FH goals, SH goals, late goals or whatever takes your fancy but pick one and use it for that, then you will start to tweak it slightly to take it from say 80% SR to 85% (for example). I really would also cut out a lot of the lesser leagues; not lesser based on results but on lesser quality (Ecuador, Egypt etc etc)
I don’t say this to criticise or from a position of hitting the heights of continued successful trading but as someone who has made a lot of these mistakes, stepped back from everything and realised the simplicity and focus is absolutely vital. I hope you listen to what Darri has to say, he is making valid points with the intention of helping you along and I think if you accept his advice and adjust what you’re doing then you will do ok
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One other thing. Any tweaks can and will be undone should I need based on the fact I've not thrown away a single piece of data.
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@darri I want a more peaceful trading plan down the line for sure. This isn't the time for peace.
I understand all the skepticism but I'm further down the rabbit hole than I've ever been with anything else on this. Almost 6 months of data.
I would just really like the experts to have a look for themselves and just get a glimpse of what I've seen. Like I said, I've made it as easy as possible by filtering out the noise for only those where trades would qualify based on current data.
I would also like to make clear that while I've tweaked certain average and odds, I've never just done this randomly to backfit. All tweaks have been either cutting off averages too high or too low based on where the outliers are. Same with odds.
Like I said before, I won't just throw money at this forever and within my own head there is a deadline.
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@richard-latimer the chances of a game going from a simple 3.5 trade which id say happens 30-40% of games to then a 5.5 trade which id say is less than 20% of time is quite significant, add to that this is then a 3 goal SHG which adds to the rareness. The odds your taking are not matching that change. Hence why im saying your making this so complex for yourself. I will have a look later but im not wanting to get into specifics too much. Im just concerned that perhaps the advice offered was brushed off too easily from others (me, keith and alan) who are doing this consistently, all of us saying the same thing too and wanted to give one last attempt at helping again. Ill leave it here and can chat privately to not clog up the thread, just be careful mate not to get trapped in that vicious cycle again. Keep this so simple, iv ditched my late goal trades for a far more peaceful trading plan, your even seeing likes of keith doing the same. Please see that and not just ignore it.
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I'm not making huge tweaks on a daily basis by the way. I did for a while but the tweaks are getting less and less.
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@darri I would just really like you to look at the analysis tab as I've filtered it now. I fully expect that things will evolve over time but the basic premise holds true even without looking at every single criteria. Goals breed goals.
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@richard-latimer it really doesnt matter about odds and absorbing losses, strike rates will be different based on each odds range you take. So essentially your trading a game without long history of that scenario actually working? And after each trade your then working on a new assumption? I know you dont want to stop but just think about that more. The advice we have given over last few months are all solid, me, keith and alan all want you to succeed. I still cringe at that scenario list it takes up a whole page and then some scrolling. Im not sure if this applies to you but i used to always be looking for that strat that beat everyone else's, kind of sounds like what your doing when your saying your taking lower odds than everyone else, those odds are that price because of time of match nothing else, so your strike rate then changes to fit that so losses actually are still same relatively. I dont understand why you dont just trade one of the ready made strats provided by the forum until your data is further on instead of these changes after every game. Id love to see you settled with a solid strategy and working on things in background. As alan said we dont need to invent the wheel we already have enough. These strats might not be earth shattering but you start to compound them and they work wonders. Look around the forum how simple are the trades the good traders are doing. Ill leave it here cause like iv said i dont want it to ever feel like im nagging, i just cant bite my tongue when i want to help someone in trading, who i think i can help. Good luck with your trading bud, hopefully you can turn the corner and make this all work
i promise ill butt out with my opinion from now on unless you ask for help, just wanted to try one last time, especially during such a quiet period, often these are good times to take stock and analyse best course of action going forward. -
@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer how are you getting on trading wise mate? Are you a bit more clearer with what your looking at now?
Yeah, there's not been much to trade the last week. I'm very clear and many poor trades made recently have been ones where I didn't have the data to back it up. Only no negative data if that makes any sense.
Where things have gone well it's been trading on positive data and leaving those with either no data or only negative data. I miss out on those where no data begins to turn into positive data but it's all about safeguarding. I believe too much in what doing to stop. Also the main draw is lower odds than what everyone else is doing right now.
I can absorb more losses.
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@richard-latimer how are you getting on trading wise mate? Are you a bit more clearer with what your looking at now?
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Absolutely bugger all for tomorrow again. Jeez, what a snooze fest at the moment.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
That scuppered that!
Same game. Will back a 6th (3rd H2) goal 70th minute.
Matched @ 2.6
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
That scuppered that!
Same game. Will back a 6th (3rd H2) goal 70th minute.
Matched @ 2.6
Going to end 4-1. Process of elimination is a bitch haha!
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
That scuppered that!
Same game. Will back a 6th (3rd H2) goal 70th minute.
Matched @ 2.6
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0
