The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I’m LCS in the Scotland v Czech Republic match. Currently 0-1 at HT
Yep, surely has to be a Scotland goal now
Lay odds only 3.55
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I’m LCS in the Scotland v Czech Republic match. Currently 0-1 at HT
Yep, surely has to be a Scotland goal now
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I’m LCS in the Scotland v Czech Republic match. Currently 0-1 at HT
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Does, or has, anybody experimented with trying to 'time' the runs in their data?
By this I mean, lets say you had a 30%sr that was reliable on a large amount of data for your system. After 15 straight loses on said system would you consider increasing stakes slightly as you could be getting 4-5 winners in the next 15 games.
Opposite would be true as well, in same said system you have 2-4 winners in a row, would you reduce staking slightly as a run of losers should be coming according to your data and statistics.
I imagine most would say keep it simple
I was just curious if anyone had tried it.What you can do is work out your longest losing streak (max function on excel) and, all things being equal with a large enough set of data, increase staking on the next trade.
E.g. if your longest losing streak from 1,000 pieces of data is 4, you could increase staking by a SENSIBLE amount on the 5th trade
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Hard to believe there’s only 12,000 at Hampden. I’ve definitely missed the Scots at International tournaments.
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@dan-mackinnon Yea I was kinda thinking something similar, without all those fancy terms and explanations
Was just curious if anyone had tried it.
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@matt-wood there is a poker term “Resulting” which is when you change your plan based on the outcome of a previous hand rather than the facts. There's also the law of large numbers which suggests that if you do something repeatedly you get the mean over a long period. If you also take into account random sequencing you could go 100 wins in a row. You can't predict what's random as much as your brain wants you to.
Other than tempting the trading gods I don't think switching back and forth would be of any benefit because eventually it'll still find a way to even out over the long term.
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Does, or has, anybody experimented with trying to 'time' the runs in their data?
By this I mean, lets say you had a 30%sr that was reliable on a large amount of data for your system. After 15 straight loses on said system would you consider increasing stakes slightly as you could be getting 4-5 winners in the next 15 games.
Opposite would be true as well, in same said system you have 2-4 winners in a row, would you reduce staking slightly as a run of losers should be coming according to your data and statistics.
I imagine most would say keep it simple
I was just curious if anyone had tried it. -
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin Been losing faith in the FHG market since COVID, however normal service should resume now crowds are slowly being allowed back in... Are tournaments good for FHG generally? Never measured the stat myself.
Re SH, my SHG trade has been working a charm
Back the plus 2 goal market at HT
Back 0.2pts @ current odds
Back 0.2pts @ plus 1 whole pt
Back 0.2pts @ plus another 1 whole ptLay current score, queue LCS
Queue LCS 0.306pts @ 1.8
Queue LCS 0.306pts @ 1.5If 1.8 LCS is matched you might have chance to trade out of the plus 2 goal market but with both lays matched I generally let it run.
If only 1 or 2 parts matched in the plus 2 goal market you can either take the green, remove red or even remove half the red if you wish.
At HT I look for a minimum 1.8 in the plus 2 goal market and sometimes I might queue 1.9 or evens... Depends how I see the IPS/game flowing.
Give it a try and let me know what you think... I've tweaked a few trades I've learnt/picked up from other pros
Love this will look into it a bit more!
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson nah i wasnt honest, also i wasnt saying make a new thread for all the trades was more just the chat and banter side of posts this past week so that fans can post back and forth about their players etc, but clearly I havent read the room very well and ill keep quiet
:scotland: ill just stick to posting winnersYou're fantastic at that. No doubt. Enjoy the Scotland match this afternoon. Alba gu bràth!
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@keith-anderson nah i wasnt honest, also i wasnt saying make a new thread for all the trades was more just the chat and banter side of posts this past week so that fans can post back and forth about their players etc, but clearly I havent read the room very well and ill keep quiet
:scotland: ill just stick to posting winners -
@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson sorry for helping people
Don't take it bad! I was only joking. I actually like and read all your posts!
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@keith-anderson sorry for helping people
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
happy to be the minority, was just saying, since saw someone else also comment
It's a bit rich from someone who struggles to write under 3 paragraphs!
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happy to be the minority, was just saying, since saw someone else also comment, dont think there should be a separate chat just keep it in the off topic thread like most stuff is
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@nick-allan yeah i turned off notifications for this thread cause of all the chat, its annoying when your not say english :scotland: and its just filled with chat/banter when there are other threads for that chat, but its the euros so iv accepted it and only posting my trades then logging off, ill also interact with others who are wanting to discuss trades and trading info rather than my opinion on an england player and what he eat for breakfast
anyone else?
No
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@martin no cause then ill get all the notifications if iv made it, we have plenty threads already for banter and chats
