The BTC Football Trading Thread

[A Former User]

@mark-maguire

I would of put money on Breda smashing Jong Ajax. Other way round

[Akiva Anderson]

SHG in the Hapoel Tel Aviv v Maccabi Haifa match. 0-0 at HT

[Richard Latimer]

Lay Under 1.5:

[A Former User]

@mark-maguire

Breda and Milan for me also. Stats very strong

[Martin Walker]

SHG potentials

13/03/2023 17:00:00 Istanbulspor AS Sivasspor
13/03/2023 19:00:00 Graafschap Zwolle
13/03/2023 19:00:00 Almere City Venlo
13/03/2023 19:00:00 Roda Jong AZ
13/03/2023 19:00:00 Breda Jong Ajax
13/03/2023 19:45:00 AC Milan Salernitana
13/03/2023 19:45:00 Crusaders Cliftonville

[Ryan]

@rene-ostenfeld @Terry-Heller that is a much smarter way of doing it, I am not that adept with spreadsheets

[Mark Maguire]

A couple tonight .. missed a day yesterday with "man flu".

LTD

Ac Milan vs Salernitana

Will also be o1.5

Other o1.5

Samsunspor vs Bandirmaspor
Istanbulspor vs Sivasspor
Breda vs Jong Ajax

FHG

Ac Milan
Breda vs Jong Ajax

[A Former User]

@rene-ostenfeld I can see your point and to get the percentage right the R column formula would be more accurate if it was

=O3/SUM(O3+P3+Q3)*100

Similarly for The S and T columns

[Rene Ostenfeld]

@ryan in the first row there are 19 matches in

When calculating the chance the outcome adds up to 95% and not 100 - because for that row there are not 20 matches.

[Ryan]

@rene-ostenfeld I've already done all the maths for you in this sheet and we divide it by 20 as that's the sample size, 10 from the home team and 10 from the away team. Hence why I did 20.

[Rene Ostenfeld]

@ryan Maybe i am mistaken - but i think we need to add up the matches. In some cases there are not 20 matches. Correct me if I am wrong but the outcome win/draw/lost should add up to 100 ?!!

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer

Yeah the second the home/heavy favourite goes 2 up im out of there. I always leave a little bit on the draw though. last night it worked a treat . Juve/Marseille and Granada

[Martin Walker]

@michael some of the filters are from people on here some are my own. I just track them and tweak to what im looking for. Ryans on the stats software is a good one to start with.

I dont just blindly follow the filters i have though, i narrowed about 40 selections into the 21 games. I also didnt trade all 21 games. Think i chose about 8 of the best

[Ryan]

@stephen-brooks-0 Hey bud,

I just put this together for you

https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/4257/ryan-s-value-video

[Michael]

@martin-walker I mean that so many factors play a part in nailing SHG - ie taking from six filters! Great work

[Martin Walker]

@michael thanks. Its hard to answer specifically as these were from about 6 filters i use. All use slightly different angles.

What do you mean by wide ranging

[Michael]

@martin-walker This is great, Martin. Good work. May I ask what your filter is looking for with these? I find SHG so wide ranging!

[Martin Walker]

@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

SHG potentials - will most likely trade 0-0 1-0 0-1 and wait for 1.3 minimum to reduce the list. Will also spend a couple of minutes checking form and inplay stats of any that make the cut just incase some terrible games have slipped through

12/03/2023 10:30:00 Ankaragucu Alanyaspor
12/03/2023 11:15:00 Nijmegen Utrecht
12/03/2023 12:30:00 Club Brugge KV St. Liege
12/03/2023 13:15:00 Servette Luzern
12/03/2023 13:30:00 Heerenveen Ajax
12/03/2023 14:00:00 Lorient Troyes
12/03/2023 14:00:00 Vejle Fredericia
12/03/2023 14:00:00 Angers Toulouse
12/03/2023 15:00:00 Horsens FC Copenhagen
12/03/2023 15:00:00 Waregem Gent
12/03/2023 15:30:00 Grasshoppers Winterthur
12/03/2023 16:00:00 LASK Linz Salzburg
12/03/2023 16:00:00 Basaksehir Besiktas
12/03/2023 16:30:00 SV Werder Bremen Leverkusen
12/03/2023 16:30:00 Legia Stal Mielec
12/03/2023 17:00:00 Brondby Silkeborg
12/03/2023 17:30:00 Genk St. Gilloise
12/03/2023 18:30:00 Wolfsburg Union Berlin
12/03/2023 19:00:00 Feyenoord Volendam
12/03/2023 19:45:00 Marseille Strasbourg
12/03/2023 20:30:00 Sporting Boavista

These went 21/21

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I've got 275 qualifying selections and 265 of those wins so rather than be too cautious I'm going to throw myself into it from here. I think the ones I'm not taking that go on to win at this point are ultimately proving as damaging as taking them knowing there may well still be areas to tighten up over the course of time.

That said, here are my Under 1.5 Lays for Sunday:

Also laying Over 3.5 Ferencvaros

Actually......scrap the last. As much as I THINK it will win.....I''m going to play it safe for now

Put through the ringer today but 4/4 and almost got everything back I lost on Sat.

Costa Rican game was ridiculous. Home side 1.22 faves, 26 shots, 9 on target and they lose 0-2 with a late late late goal.....for once the sofascore lot are probably right. Mafia!!

Still after 2 score corrections I'm just glad the most unlikely event occurred when the likely one didn't!

[Richard Latimer]

@matthew-harrison said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer

Yeah I seen that they had a xG of 1 before Marseille scored. Marsseille have been terrible of late. But they should still see off a team with one of the worst away forms when they are 2 up with 14 minutes to go

Agreed. As soon as the 2nd went in I couldn't care less though haha!