The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@nick-allan yeah i turned off notifications for this thread cause of all the chat, its annoying when your not say english :scotland: and its just filled with chat/banter when there are other threads for that chat, but its the euros so iv accepted it and only posting my trades then logging off, ill also interact with others who are wanting to discuss trades and trading info rather than my opinion on an england player and what he eat for breakfast
anyone else?
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@martin its all just probability, its why we all know the roullette table is a quick way to lose money, once you can get yourself in a position where you can predict as close to the actual probability of an event happening then this game gets easy. The only thing id have said here is being consistent with it, will you be able to repeat game after game with this watching every first half, or could you turn up at half time on a busy day without having seen the first half and go yep good price, key players playing and good inplay stats, boom enter. What info other than you watching makes you think holland should have been 1.5 at HT? What makes you predict it will be a 2/3 win for holland? That for me is where the edges will be different game to game because it will be heavy in terms of opinion, compared to say knowing what the average odds are for these match situations and just getting in if they are better odds than they should be. Like i say tho match odds inplay arent my area of knowledge and im sure there will be others with better understanding than me.
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@martin ah sorry i thought you were meaning a swing trade of backing holland at HT then cashing out after a goal, as its not really a trade id do i dont really know what % are likely, id have been having a twitchy moment when it went 2-2, but yeah we both know any market has a good strategy in it. For me my SHG for the sake of just waiting 5-10 mins and getting a great price for just one goal in the next 35-40 mins made my life easier, maybe not more money but easier, more things can happen when backing favs below evens than just backing a goal between 1.25-1.4 at HT-55 mins, risk/reward for all strategies i suppose, like i say my specialist areas is SHGs and that really all i can be sure of the rest id just be speculating, but based on your % chance sounds like you had a good edge.
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@darri true but I would have the Dutch at 1.5 at HT given how strong they were and just going by the percentages this would make it value. I like goals but 1.15 was so thin at that time and I thought Holland at 1.71 had a great chance to be the scorers if there was an early second half goal. I think Holland wins this game at least 2 out of 3 times, so potentially I lose a trade 33% of the time but that would still make me money.
I've been looking a lot into game theory in Professional Poker recently and want to bring some of that into my Betfair trading. I've found in this tournament so far it's led to much more robotic trading where I know - I will do y if x happens etc.
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@nick-allan yeah i turned off notifications for this thread cause of all the chat, its annoying when your not say english :scotland: and its just filled with chat/banter when there are other threads for that chat, but its the euros so iv accepted it and only posting my trades then logging off, ill also interact with others who are wanting to discuss trades and trading info rather than my opinion on an england player and what he eat for breakfast
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Morning gang,
At this stage I’ve gone for O1.5 in the Scotland v Czech Republic match and have risked 1.6 points to make 1 point.
Looking at the other matches and will post if anything else comes up. -
@martin as for FHG, i too got hit with yesterdays game, im gonna leave them for this comp, i think a good FHG strat requires actual data and less inplay reading as they are already a hard enough market to crack. So just SHGs and LTDs for me
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@martin i suppose you could look to do that, for me that just brings too many other variables other than i just need one goal from either side, one slip or a yarmolenko wondergoal and then boom you have a losing position, from what iv seen there has only been one game in which the odds at HT were not above 1.2 for a SHG so the value in the markets are great, your then looking at say 5-10 mins till it hits what id say is a good min price for 35-40 mins worth of a trade. If your perhaps not used to match odds in these int comps then we dont really know exactly what average prices should be for these heavy favs. Whereas a goal market is roughly the same any game and therefor easy to spot the value plays. Game by game basis tho id say as long as your selective there are good swing trade there, just easier on goal markets as its less opinion based.
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Nothing on my Under 1.5 Goal lays today, but worthwhile mentions for Laying Under 1.5 goals -
14:00 - Scotland v Czech Republic
16:30 - Mariehamn v HJK
17:00 - Poland v Slovakia
18:00 - Stabaek v Tromso
20:00 - Spain v Sweden -
Didn't post yesterday because I was in the pub!!
Laying Under 1.5 goals in the Euros is going okay. The good thing is, even when it's 0-0 at HT you can LCS.
Was on all three matches yesterday.
Layed Under 1.5 Goals in the England v Croatia match. Managed to claw something back from their SHG.
Layed Under 1.5 goals in the Austria match. This was really cheap. Great that it was 1-1 at HT. Managed to LCS at HT too. It was reasonably priced and quite a good match.
Layed Under 1.5 Goals in the Holland v Ukraine match. LCS odd at HT were 7.6 - too high even for me. Holland where on top so I backed them at around 1.75 at HT. Traded out when Holland went 2-0 up. Opportunity was there to LCS at 2-2, but for some reason I didn't take it - I blame the alcohol!
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Have layed u1.5 goals in all 3 of todays Euros for 0.25pts green in each match
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Layed u1.5 goals in all 3 games today
Running P&L for Euros 0.25pts green
England v Croatia - Red -0.69pts
Austria v North Macedonia - Green 0.25pts
Netherlands v Ukraine - Green 0.25ptsRunning Euros 2021 P&L 0.06pts green
Basically scratch after yesterdays games so hopefully todays can bring more favourable results... To be fair if I wasn't so hung over I would have gone SHG in Austria & Holland... However... Let's do this!
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Todays Non Euro SHG watch-list;
Will look for SHG with good attacking intent and if following score lines;
0-0, 1-0, 0-1 & 1-1
SHG's in both the Norway games but the 2 games in Finland didn't go in-play... You can always place a bet on these within Betfair Sportsbook, however the games were either 2-0 or 0-2 at HT so I wouldn't have jumped on them... For me with these selections HT results need to be within 1 goal and ideally below 3
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14-06-21 Todays Non Euro SHG/Goal watch-list;
Will look for SHG with good attacking intent and if following score lines;
0-0, 1-0, 0-1 & 1-1
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@martin Been losing faith in the FHG market since COVID, however normal service should resume now crowds are slowly being allowed back in... Are tournaments good for FHG generally? Never measured the stat myself.
Re SH, my SHG trade has been working a charm
Back the plus 2 goal market at HT
Back 0.2pts @ current odds
Back 0.2pts @ plus 1 whole pt
Back 0.2pts @ plus another 1 whole ptLay current score, queue LCS
Queue LCS 0.306pts @ 1.8
Queue LCS 0.306pts @ 1.5If 1.8 LCS is matched you might have chance to trade out of the plus 2 goal market but with both lays matched I generally let it run.
If only 1 or 2 parts matched in the plus 2 goal market you can either take the green, remove red or even remove half the red if you wish.
At HT I look for a minimum 1.8 in the plus 2 goal market and sometimes I might queue 1.9 or evens... Depends how I see the IPS/game flowing.
Give it a try and let me know what you think... I've tweaked a few trades I've learnt/picked up from other pros
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin i think the big comps are different, qualifiers tend to be just something these big teams have to play, here their nations demand them to do well. In the qualifiers the markets are also not in your favour cause of the huge gulf in class, yet less motivation to perform. Here netherlands at home, in front of an expectant crowd, main players playing well, it now doesnt feel unlike what normal domestic football feels like flow wise so there is less variables with int comps than just regular internationals. In a regular domestic game the betfair markets would take a frickin age to reach 1.3 from the 1.15 it was at HT, it only took 8 mins the markets are so much better for traders and like you said on the video these ints seem far easier to read
Interesting, I'm looking at the match odds more when overs are so thin at HT and trying to just look at it from a mathematical point of view. Feels like the plays are fairly straightforward once I do that, thought Holland would be 1.5 at so when I saw 1.71 that was an easy trade.
The only thing I've been caught out on so far is the first half goal market. Been getting on about 20 mins in and am 0/3 there. Italy, Switzerland and Holland games, could just be variance and prices were good on all three but all were 0-0 at HT.
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
is there a euro 2021 dedicated trading tread?
People are just posting their trades/opinions/questions etc in here as it’s just the ongoing football thread
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is there a euro 2021 dedicated trading tread?
