The BTC Football Trading Thread

[Richard Latimer]

Lay Under 1.5:

[Mr. Emmet Moorehouse]

Fortuna Dusseldorf 2-0 Braunschweig at HT- I'll go for a SHG if I can get the entry right.

[A Former User]

@oliver-moore

Don’t get me started on var I had a game recently with 2 var goals late on. It’s why I love trading the lower leagues now.

[A Former User]

@matthew-harrison said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

One of the worst feelings ever

Yep, nasty. It's almost as bad when you are watching the game and as the clock runs down the strikers continually miss the easiest of chances or VAR scrubs out that goal you were waiting for.

[Mr. Emmet Moorehouse]

These are my list of candidates tonight. I'll post here if I my research and the first half stats/play leads me to have a punt.

[A Former User]

@mark-maguire

I have Lille and Brest also. Hoping to get in at odds of 5

[A Former User]

One of the worst feelings ever

[Mark Maguire]

Just a couple for this evening

LTD

Lille vs Brest
Heracles vs Telstar

Lille will be an O1.5 trade as well

01.5

LASK Linz vs Lustenau
Vorwarts Steyr vs BW Linz

02.5 Split Stake (out after 60 mins regardless)

Raith vs Ayr

[Chris King]

Nothing on the filters for me today so tested a little experiment tonight on the Europa Leagues that was fun;

Laying the applicable U1.5G market using a split stake at HT.

In at HT or in-play aiming for odds of 1.75 with 75% of total liability so £10.00 stake at £7.50 liability.

Then in a second time at 59 mins topping up to maximum risk, so roughly odds of 1.25 with the remaining 25%; another £10 stake

Approx £20 stake at £10 liability(risk). The stake will increase if you can get odds lower than 1.75. The risk will stay the same when sticking to the 75%/25% maximum risk rule.

Trading out with a profit when the first goal is scored, even if this is before the second stake goes in.

If no goal trading out for a loss on 75 mins. A loss is approx 50-70% of maximum risk, so £5 to £7.

A late goal (I let one run on to 77-78 mins ) resulted in £2-£3 profit

A really early goal resulted in over £10 profit as initial odds were 1.37 (1.37 £20.28 potential profit £7.50 risk)

7 wins 2 losses 77% SR

£23.28 profit to £10 stakes/risk

To select the matches I used the SofaScore XG stats at HT; Any matches that had a total XG of .90 for the first half were potential trades, and narrowed down further by matches that were drawing, had a score difference of 1 goal or a very achievable advantage to gain (level the aggregate score, score an away goal etc). I did go by the aggregate score when selecting as these were all 2nd leg matches.

The XG stat on Sofa can also be compared with the overall in play stats which is a really nice aid to put more reasoning behind the selection.

[Akiva Anderson]

Backing over 1.5 goals in the man united v Barça match.

[A Former User]

@lee-snape Careful with that one its at a neutral ground for obvious reasons

[A Former User]

[A Former User]

Partizan at home and currently going out on away goals, SHG there I reckon

[A Former User]

I Think Rennes match will be good for over 1.5 tonight, they've scored in 100% of home games.

[Akiva Anderson]

SHG in the Monaco v Leverkusen match

[A Former User]

@matthew-harrison

I think there will be plenty of opportunities tonight though, a few teams within 1 goal from 1st leg and also teams that need an away goal tonight.

[A Former User]

@matthew-harrison

Not yet but will look at SHG shortly, Monaco maybe

[A Former User]

@lee-snape

You got anything on tonight lee? I’m not trading tonight as it’s europa league

[A Former User]

Good evening guys and good luck

[A Former User]

3 last minute punts, I wouldn't have the cheek to call them trades :

Inter vs Porto £10.00 over 1.5 @ 4 - lost
Bolton vs AC £10.00 over 1.5 @ 2.36 won £13.60
Man City vs RB Leips £20.00 over 1.5 @ 1.43 won £8.60