The BTC Football Trading Thread

Rene Ostenfeld

@ryan Thx for the "tip" - my problem is always to determine when to close the deal. Today I have 2 other bets where there is a profit before the game has started. Do you have a rule of thumb ? I the case of PSV Jong vs. Breda I got out at 4% - I think that is the best it can get ? or ?

james everard

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-everard are you starting to believe yet haha??

HI Richard great how we have managed to turn it around the last three matches but to think we have needed injury time winners in 2 of them hopefully the luck won't run out.
Remember we still have Liverpool , Newcastle and Man City away and Chelsea at home, so still a long way to go , if Liverpool can get something out of Man City in a couple of weeks and we win our next two matches i will be much more confident.

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I was looking at https://www.football-data.co.uk/ who have a part of their website dedicated to Wisdom of the Crowds https://www.football-data.co.uk/wisdom_of_crowd_bets.php
The selections have made a small profit each year. The thought occurred to me to look at what the effect of the World Cup 2022 had been (if any) on their profit and loss. Looking at my Excel spreadsheet I compared each January and February profits to this years during the period 2016 to 2023. It shows that a profit was made each year. 2023 profit was the lowest but only by a couple of points. The question then arises ‘does the World Cup affect profits’ and my conclusion is that it probably does but only by a small amount. I couldn’t look at France 2018 as it was played during the summer period.

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Been away all weekend so back on it today, normal format , good luck today peeps

Ryan

UPDATE Took 1.79 and out!

I'm doing a pre match trade on Jong PSV v NAC Breda

Over 2.5 goals @1.81 - market not really formed, not loads of money on it.

BUT

Graph trending down
Acca boys know Netherlands if a goal fest
Stats suggest this price is value - ALTHOUGH I"M NOT GOING INPLAY

I'm looking for it to break 1.80, I personally think this should be around 1.74/1.75.

Ryan

@chris-osborne Matchbooks pretty solid! I've been using it a little bit for my main leagues stuff and it's ok.

Perhaps the first time ever I actually feel somebody might get a decent market share.

Ryan

I wasn't actually expecting that total meltdown from United!!

@terry-cooke said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Me being a Man U fan right now!

Adam DelGaizo 0

Good opportunity to lay Roma if they go ahead against Juve.

Mr. Emmet Moorehouse

That was a close game.

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@terry-cooke said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Me being a Man U fan right now!

Ditto! Absolute shambles today

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Me being a Man U fan right now!

homer simp

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This post is deleted!

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I''ve got to nip out soon but will be laying Under 1.5 in Waalwijk v PSV

Bet365 feed must have gone down but it seemed like they spent the last half an hour making substitutions and getting carded! Withhout doubt worst single result in months an annoyingly after a poor day which could have been avoided yesterday. These are things sent to test us!

In fact what makes this worse is I just realised I made a mistake. The numbers were all way too big. It actually means I need to do my daily slectin differeently because this slippeed thhrough way too easily.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I''ve got to nip out soon but will be laying Under 1.5 in Waalwijk v PSV

Bet365 feed must have gone down but it seemed like they spent the last half an hour making substitutions and getting carded! Withhout doubt worst single result in months an annoyingly after a poor day which could have been avoided yesterday. These are things sent to test us!

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5 Leverkusen

Richard Latimer

I''ve got to nip out soon but will be laying Under 1.5 in Waalwijk v PSV

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@neal-simmonds Don’t adjust the staking after a loss or losing day….that’s basically chasing losses and will ultimately lead to a disaster

Set your staking, say 1% per trade, and run with that for every trade. Adjust on a monthly basis, nudging it up or down depending on the months results, always keeping the % as the same

Neal Simmonds

@Everyone Hey Gang! I got a lot on my mind! (That's how it is with me)

Firstly. I started trading some football a couple of days ago, I'm kicking off with Martins Back the over 1.5 Goals , Tomaz's Lay the over 1.5 & The ELO Away Team Lays!

I'm still training myself on the Footy Software and first results on my own Home Team Win Strategy don't look great (Work In Progress) So the question is are these the only 3 strategies its currently safe to trade for a Newbie?

Secondly. Staking! Now. My view on staking is that you should never risk more than 1% of your bank on a single position! I'm currently staking no more than 0.01% of the Bank whilst I'm testing! at this level of staking, what are your thoughts on doubling the stake on a losing day by strategy?

Specifically strategies with a ridiculously high hit rate like Martins Back The Over 1.5 Goals between 1.25 - 1.35 which implies a massive hit rate! but on a day like yesterday (4 Mar 2023) when it was down! 7 positions & 3 lost, I'm thinking you could double up your stake the following day and then again the day after that if needed providing you stayed within the overall scheme of not risking over 1 - 2% of the total bank?

I'd love to hear your thoughts, is this too big of a gamble?

Dan MacKinnon

@chris-osborne liquidity on both is pretty decent. Better than Betdaq.

Then again, I’ve only used them on horse racing so don’t know about more obscure football games.

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@alex-rule said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-everard - Smarkets/Matchbook for me. They both offer a better service level I think than Betfair. Really easy to communicate with them if needed.

Hows liquidity though?