The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Lay Under 1.5 Bohemians
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Lay Over 1.5:
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@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dan-mackinnon yep and we know from blogs, surveys and feedback there are lots out there doing well. Sadly the ones who aren't tend to be the ones who shout the loudest, as I always say people remember the losing trades more than the winnings ones.
I think people should take a step back and re-read my comments. Maybe the ones who 'shout the loudest' are just the ones who are prepared to question the 'system'?
I'm not on here to lose money, but it seems as soon as someone raises the question generally about losing , then the defensive barriers come up, and all the usual 'Variance',' european Break, 'Intenational aftermath', 'seek the longer goal' - it is commented regularly. I dont see a lot of people on here (there are some) commenting that they have made money - in fact. if you have then i congratulate you.
I vaguely remember @richard latimer saying that he had scratched even this year for a prolonged period ( i could be wrong) and i thought to myself, here is a guy who does humongous analysis on his trades and yet X years later he is still 'scratching around'please dont take this as a negative post - i love BTC, and i love the people and banter on it - it was a genuine question as to how many people really are profitable on the footy trading ?
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Lay Under 1.5:
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Lay Over 1.5:
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SHG in the Midtjylland v Aalborg match. 0-1 at HT
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First of the night. Lay Over 1.5:
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@martin I think this idea would help me. I’m one of those who only follow the set and forget strategies. Some in-play trading sounds great. The mindset videos and podcasts are great but I don’t think they are pushing me forward, I think I’m past that stage now. Also really like your video on how to split testing strategies. Gives you a real idea how the pros approach creating a strategy.
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@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I feel like this thread is good for chat and some football trading but we should have a more dedicated thread for football trading itself? Maybe even some time slots where we can trade and chat together that we know when they will be.
What do you guys think? Would this be a good idea?
Sounds like a good idea
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@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dan-mackinnon yep and we know from blogs, surveys and feedback there are lots out there doing well. Sadly the ones who aren't tend to be the ones who shout the loudest, as I always say people remember the losing trades more than the winnings ones.
When reading the post I came to think of Loss Aversion. I you ever read "thinking fast and slow" by Tversky and Kahnemann this is explained in detail. Some studies have suggested that losses are twice as powerful, psychologically, as gains.
I started the 26/2 and have traded more than I should. But I am in this for the long run - this will take years to master.
I have attached my own accumulated profit graph and as you can see I have bumps in on the way as well. I consider myself "lucky" to have made a small profit and are preparing my self for a some "bad runs" to come. !
The videos Martin and Ryan are posting I find very helpful as this forum. It makes me stay on track and help with the psychological aspect of trading like "loss aversion" and all the other bad bias's our brain are wired for.
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I think the other thing to point out if we are comparing sports, is what types of strategies are being used.
As Martin said on another chat recently, you have to expect much bigger swings of variance in set and forget trading. I could be wrong but I don’t believe there is much going on with regards to set and forget on cricket at the moment as an example, whereas most of the guys are using set and forget or at least running trades that they don’t get exit on the football side, so always likely to see more downturns
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I feel like this thread is good for chat and some football trading but we should have a more dedicated thread for football trading itself? Maybe even some time slots where we can trade and chat together that we know when they will be.
What do you guys think? Would this be a good idea?
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@akiva-anderson so true!
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@dan-mackinnon yep and we know from blogs, surveys and feedback there are lots out there doing well. Sadly the ones who aren't tend to be the ones who shout the loudest, as I always say people remember the losing trades more than the winnings ones.
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Some people aren’t cut out for trading. That’s the truth. I felt like that was me a few years ago. Glad I stuck with it. This is my first bad month this year. Pretty certain it’ll turnaround, but it can certainly be frustrating.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@daniel-mills bang on. Your story pretty much mirrors mine exactly!
It feels strange to call myself profitable as it’s easy to confuse “profitable” with “professional”. But each year I’ve been here I’ve had a bigger bank than I started with. I’ve got a blog that breaks it down.
The big shift for me was to focus on one strategy and really learn that. Keith was inspiration for me because he only trades 1 strategy and no one on here would say he’s failing at football
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@stuart-wallace-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Do people on here really make money on a regular basis?
I would doubt it tbh.I do. I've been on here since 2020, and in all honesty, took longer to drop some bad habits (stake sizing, bankroll management etc) than I'd care to admit. I had a moment last year where I needed to ask @Ryan and @Martin for some help in the private coaching on a strat and it very quickly put me back on the right track. I doubled my bank size over the course of a year (including the blip!), and I feel pretty confident it's not going to take as long next time round.
The biggest thing that being on here 3 years has done is giving me the patience to stick out the bad runs and not pay too much attention to daily P/L, good or bad. @Samo posted some advice a few posts down to someone who was having a bad month and I'd echo that completely.
I used to copy peoples trades on here intermittently in the beginning, probably a bit of FOMO, that didn't work out for me. Now I leave everything on BFBM and very rarely see the yellow and black on my phone anymore.
I know you post on the cricket threads a lot and I'd say that football is probably not as profitable as cricket, but I know feck all about cricket and would tank my bank if I tried to copy what I do for football.
Just one more thing, and I don't think it's mentioned on here a lot, but I got into this to make more money. Specifically because of things like wanting a better life, bit of money on the side etc and when I've been stressed about money in my home life, I've ended up taking bigger risks with my trading or more frequent trades outside of the plan. Despite telling myself this was a savings / fund to build up a decent sized professional bank to make money and not for spending, I'd see opportunity in matches where I don't have an edge. I'm not ashamed of any of it because getting over that has made a big step in my trading and hopefully someone reads this and gets the same outcome.
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@martin-walker OOI how many games did you get on in March?
