The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Thanks all by the sound of things Singapore is similar to Iceland good strike rate but little value
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'll weigh in on this when I'm home. Should have enough data to offer something.
It takes a really long time to build any worthwhile data on red cards it seems.
Going purely on the difference of a red in the FH against no red because that's all i'm interested in intially backing s SHG, this is what I've found.
From 700+ selections 36 had a FH red. S/r without is 91%. With reds is 92% so although small data makes this inconclusive it's certainly no immediate reason to exclude.
The 3 losers averaged @ 6.00. Add another point in case of an odds bounce and let's say a lay price of 7.0. So 3x6 =
33 wins @ .98
32.34
3 losses @ 7.0
-18.00
p/l = +14.34Home red is 10 selections with 1 loser @ 6.8 (add another 1pt for an odds bounce to make it 7.8).
9x.98 = 8.82
1 loss = -6.8
p/l = +2.02By that logic it's 26 away reds with 2 losses amounting to a p/l of +12.32 on those.
The other thing to consider is that one of 2 losses is a league I've just put on the red list.
In the first instance I see no reason to exclude reds from the FH at all.
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100% strike rate for me but odds of 1.12 currently for another goal
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I’m seeing an increasing number of games from Singapore in people’s filters of late which is a league I haven’t even considered.
How profitable is it in general?
Great league, great SR but not good odds! It’s one league I’m happy to take lower odds because the results are good
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I’m seeing an increasing number of games from Singapore in people’s filters of late which is a league I haven’t even considered.
How profitable is it in general?
One of the better ones for me
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@chris-osborne Does well on my filters, a goals filter and a SHG filter, although I dont have a huge amount of games from there on either filter.
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I’m seeing an increasing number of games from Singapore in people’s filters of late which is a league I haven’t even considered.
How profitable is it in general?
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I'll weigh in on this when I'm home. Should have enough data to offer something.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
I tracked all red cards on my filter, clear difference in strike rate when not entering after a red card.
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@stuart-capstick Complete common sense rule. Well said.
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@lee-woodman
Depends on who has the red. Away favs with a lead or drawing tends to be a losing trade.
On the other hand, a leading underdog playing away tends to be a winning trade.That said, the stats all include red card games. The best for your own mental well-being is to establish a rule (get out or stay in) and simply stick to that.
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@steve-sandell I’ve often thought about red cards and whether to trade them and I’m still on the fence a little, I too would like to see data to see the impact but obviously it’s quite a particular set of data we’re after because a red card could come early or it could come much later - I’m not sure what data I’d need to see to convince me whether there’s a big difference in statistics. Obviously mass data could be skewed by information on games I have no interest in trading and would never see on my filters
I think a big reason people avoid them is the big perceived momentum change - an open game with teams going for it could see a 10 man team just defend the current result in a game which they’d attack in normal circumstances. There’s also the value change which again is hard to quantify, a team with 11 vs 10 is expected to score and dominate but it’s not always as easy as having that extra man advantage. I personally haven’t checked the odds shift from just before a red card to just after to see what the effect it has on odds
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Stat of the day just been looking at the MLS in particular La Galaxy. Sine 2017 they have played 61 games at home and scored at SHG in 59 of them at all odds ranges. Thought that was good going for a home team
Also dont understand this myth with red cards. When you are setting up filters for games there isnt a red card filter. For me red cards are just another thing to think about which clouds your judgement. Like shots on target 15 shots no goal, 4 shots 2 goals. Nobody can predict a goal or no goals
Would love to see some data on games with red cards and goals scored -
@daniel-mills that first ones a good pick!
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This afternoons games for me:
Didn't get matched yesterday, but still SHG's. Looks like a busy weekend based off the next few days on my filter!
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@matt-ayles said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Was just writing about a Rangers SHG as its 0-0 HT and the stats are crazy but then there was a Rangers red card which I've learnt from the academy is a big red flag.
Might be worth seeing how it goes first 15 mins, see if it's still crazy one sided even with 10 men as it is their home leg but I'll be proceeding with extreme caution...
Goal 67th min. Was one of those you had to be watching to see the game flow.
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Was just writing about a Rangers SHG as its 0-0 HT and the stats are crazy but then there was a Rangers red card which I've learnt from the academy is a big red flag.
Might be worth seeing how it goes first 15 mins, see if it's still crazy one sided even with 10 men as it is their home leg but I'll be proceeding with extreme caution...
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Busy weekend approaching so will stop here for tonight, games left im interested in are heavy favs so not much value will be seen. Happy with the trades this midweek and hopefully can take that form into the weekend. Should be around saturday and late sunday, but will post when im on any SHGs
