The BTC Football Trading Thread
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SHG Standard v Oostende currently 0-0 small stake
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@steve-sandell said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHG De Graafschap v Breda currently 1-0
Goal 2-0 90mins
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SHG De Graafschap v Breda currently 1-0
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@steve-sandell said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHG Fortuna v Holstein currently 1-1
Goal 1-2
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SHG Fortuna v Holstein currently 1-1
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Like ryan says, there will always be another trade. No need to risk it
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman
Depends on who has the red. Away favs with a lead or drawing tends to be a losing trade.
On the other hand, a leading underdog playing away tends to be a winning trade.That said, the stats all include red card games. The best for your own mental well-being is to establish a rule (get out or stay in) and simply stick to that.
Yes there’s so many factors that it’s hard to quantify the effect. It’s easier to gauge if you are using judgement in trades but getting relevant, purely factual data is very very difficult. I’ve always just stayed in if I’m already in, but stayed out the trade if I’ve not yet entered and I don’t lose sleep over red cards, it’s just something I’ve wondered about the effect
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@stuart-capstick well put mate and a good voice of reason
its as ever very easy to build a good strategy, its how you manage that strategy that determines your longevity in this industry. How you manage it will be very personal preference and specific to individual. Just find whats right for you, however take note on why some of the pros have lasted longer than others, its very clear that some common methods are done very similarly. Great seeing what new voices have to say and try see if it adds to your overall trading/mindset. -
This, as with everything else in trading, is a question of approach to risk.
If you are comfortable with laying high/backing low and your strategy suggests value for a particular price, great.
The problem comes when you hit a bad run or simply variance. Often people, and I'm not referring to those necessarily in this discussion, hit a few losing trades, start to doubt and make errors: lose confidence in their strategy and miss trades, overstake, tinker etc.
We've seen it with the laying U1.5, LTD, late goals, the whole shebang.
This is why you need a strategy/staking system where you will feel pissed off if you lose but not despairingly sick.
This is why Darri, John et al are advocating either stay in, get out or don't enter in the case of red cards. Trading isn't demanding in an intellectual sense but can be extremely difficult in terms of decision making. Whatever is easiest/most comfortable/least likely to prey on your thoughts, do that. -
@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Thanks all by the sound of things Singapore is similar to Iceland good strike rate but little value
Price and value are not the same thing remember. Iceland is very profitable for me and so is Singapore, the prices are lower but conversely the SR is a lot higher.
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Thanks all by the sound of things Singapore is similar to Iceland good strike rate but little value
Not on my list for this reason too, hard to get matched at a price you like, i do believe the others when they say its high s/r but for me not value in my strategy. People keep going on about s/r here and i totally agree if s/r is good enough with those odds then its profitable but also its a risk to the bank and if im reducing stakes just to accommodate it then not for me. Keep everything simple and this all becomes much easier to become consistent.
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@steve-sandell said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
In contrast a red earned between 45-60 it seems is even rarer with only 17 selections from 700+ overall. While s/r is only 82% it's still only 3 losses and a lot can happen still. Also worth noting all 3 losses are away reds. Home reds is 5/5.
Also worth noting, one of the losses is in Ukraine, another league I have recently put on a red list after the data shows it to be one of the few poor performers.
Ukraine and Russian lower leagues known for match fixing
Oddly enough my results for for Russian 2nd tier are very good.
That's because you have Mafia connections, Richard.
Yeah, I just make a call.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@steve-sandell said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
In contrast a red earned between 45-60 it seems is even rarer with only 17 selections from 700+ overall. While s/r is only 82% it's still only 3 losses and a lot can happen still. Also worth noting all 3 losses are away reds. Home reds is 5/5.
Also worth noting, one of the losses is in Ukraine, another league I have recently put on a red list after the data shows it to be one of the few poor performers.
Ukraine and Russian lower leagues known for match fixing
Oddly enough my results for for Russian 2nd tier are very good.
That's because you have Mafia connections, Richard.
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer extremely small data sets here and also just your own filters data. Red cards are only to be avoided for a couple reasons. Great you have this but please dont try to come to conclusions this early doors. Its an unwritten rule for a reason, people havent just made it up from nothing.
They change the way a game flows. As traders we are looking to avoid risks. A red card changes our regular games plan. Therefore adds risk as its an unknown as to how it will affect THAT game. If you are a data only trader then for me i avoid, if you are an inplay watch see how the game pans out, does the red affect the games flow etc.
Red cards change the price, quite simply this is why the "pros" stand by the unwritten rule to just avoid entering. Typically a red card will hurt the price and markets will predict a goal is more likely to happen. Im pretty sure from data the spike will not be enough of a difference in comparison to the hike in price. How much of a difference does say at HT the usual price of 1.25 that now changes to 1.15, thats a significant change from 80% chance to 87%, yet in your data your strategy doesnt change that much. Thats a significant edge drop off. This is why people say avoid. However for me its a no to entry but if im already in the trade and iv taken my usual price then i know im in a value price because now the market will be expecting a goal and im already in. Its all about value in this game.
Really id encourage anyone just avoid them, they dont happen that often and might only affect 1-2 games on your list a week, just move on from them. The mental side of this will help you. Also please remember everyones data will be different but its safe to say reds will never be better value than a game without, doesnt mean winner wont still happen but its all about less risk, the more risk we take the more it becomes a gamble.
Just my own opinion, value hearing others on it, but i stand by what others have said about avoiding entering red cards but staying in if already on one if you believe it works in your favour scoreline wise. They are never good value.
Of course but it's all I can go off the same as anyone else.
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@richard-latimer extremely small data sets here and also just your own filters data. Red cards are only to be avoided for a couple reasons. Great you have this but please dont try to come to conclusions this early doors. Its an unwritten rule for a reason, people havent just made it up from nothing.
They change the way a game flows. As traders we are looking to avoid risks. A red card changes our regular games plan. Therefore adds risk as its an unknown as to how it will affect THAT game. If you are a data only trader then for me i avoid, if you are an inplay watch see how the game pans out, does the red affect the games flow etc.
Red cards change the price, quite simply this is why the "pros" stand by the unwritten rule to just avoid entering. Typically a red card will hurt the price and markets will predict a goal is more likely to happen. Im pretty sure from data the spike will not be enough of a difference in comparison to the hike in price. How much of a difference does say at HT the usual price of 1.25 that now changes to 1.15, thats a significant change from 80% chance to 87%, yet in your data your strategy doesnt change that much. Thats a significant edge drop off. This is why people say avoid. However for me its a no to entry but if im already in the trade and iv taken my usual price then i know im in a value price because now the market will be expecting a goal and im already in. Its all about value in this game.
Really id encourage anyone just avoid them, they dont happen that often and might only affect 1-2 games on your list a week, just move on from them. The mental side of this will help you. Also please remember everyones data will be different but its safe to say reds will never be better value than a game without, doesnt mean winner wont still happen but its all about less risk, the more risk we take the more it becomes a gamble.
Just my own opinion, value hearing others on it, but i stand by what others have said about avoiding entering red cards but staying in if already on one if you believe it works in your favour scoreline wise. They are never good value.
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@steve-sandell said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
In contrast a red earned between 45-60 it seems is even rarer with only 17 selections from 700+ overall. While s/r is only 82% it's still only 3 losses and a lot can happen still. Also worth noting all 3 losses are away reds. Home reds is 5/5.
Also worth noting, one of the losses is in Ukraine, another league I have recently put on a red list after the data shows it to be one of the few poor performers.
Ukraine and Russian lower leagues known for match fixing
Oddly enough my results for for Russian 2nd tier are very good.
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Going to keep going.
Between 60-70 is 9 selections with a red and the only loss is France 1. Not redlisted but if it was a random country I would have done so as it's a poor performer thus far. Also to be noted, no loss from a home red.
Also need to bear in mind that the later you get in the lower the s/r will be of course so for exmple I take out any goals pre 60 and I'm left with 6 selections so 5/6.
The later the red the less chance of a goal it seems and this is logical enough. Between 70-80 it's a crapshoot. Same between 80-90 although at this point it doesn't really matter I guess.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
In contrast a red earned between 45-60 it seems is even rarer with only 17 selections from 700+ overall. While s/r is only 82% it's still only 3 losses and a lot can happen still. Also worth noting all 3 losses are away reds. Home reds is 5/5.
Also worth noting, one of the losses is in Ukraine, another league I have recently put on a red list after the data shows it to be one of the few poor performers.
Ukraine and Russian lower leagues known for match fixing
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Thanks all by the sound of things Singapore is similar to Iceland good strike rate but little value
I would argue there is plenty of value if the s/r outweighs the losses in terms of p/l.
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In contrast a red earned between 45-60 it seems is even rarer with only 17 selections from 700+ overall. While s/r is only 82% it's still only 3 losses and a lot can happen still. Also worth noting all 3 losses are away reds. Home reds is 5/5.
Also worth noting, one of the losses is in Ukraine, another league I have recently put on a red list after the data shows it to be one of the few poor performers.
