The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I looked into the England idea a bit more. I went back to 2018 and there are o1.5 FH goals in roughly 1/3rd of our games. So using 1.4 as standard it would not be a profitable strategy.
I did notice there are fewer FH goals when England play away, play in friendlies or it's 0-0 at 10 minutes. Opening goals tend to be scored within 10 minutes or after 30. Maybe there's a strategy that you could enter an unders market around the 10 minute mark and look to exit around 30. Then again that's true for most games.
The real lesson here is, if you're going to watch an England friendly, make sure you get down the pub early because you might miss the action or there might be none to miss - either way, an early pint will soften the blow!
The lesson is two fold. Don't watch an England friendly and if you are forced into it, take an eye mask so you can get some kip haha
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I looked into the England idea a bit more. I went back to 2018 and there are o1.5 FH goals in roughly 1/3rd of our games. So using 1.4 as standard it would not be a profitable strategy.
I did notice there are fewer FH goals when England play away, play in friendlies or it's 0-0 at 10 minutes. Opening goals tend to be scored within 10 minutes or after 30. Maybe there's a strategy that you could enter an unders market around the 10 minute mark and look to exit around 30. Then again that's true for most games.
The real lesson here is, if you're going to watch an England friendly, make sure you get down the pub early because you might miss the action or there might be none to miss - either way, an early pint will soften the blow!
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@james-rome excluding tonight, there has been o1.5 goals in the FH in only 1 of the past 12 England games which was against Denmark in the Euros.
If the odds are roughly 1.4 like today that’s a good return. I’ll have to go back further to see if it’s actually realistic or if the past year of defensive football has got to me.
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@dan-mackinnon I think that's how we set up seems to be keep tight to ht open up when there's more space second half
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England always seem to be slow starters, even against the smaller nations. I saw u1.5 FH goals started at 1.4. Yes, one nation might score but I can’t remember the last time there was 2 FH goals in an England match. I wonder if there’s a potential strategy there?
I’ll get on with some private research and see what I find. More out of curiosity than anything
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@darri thats pretty much the conclusion id come to, when i first looked at it it was a bit like a kid in a sweet shop, eyes lit up and greedy thoughts entering my head lol. when i looked deeper if i was to halve my stake and do both i would be no better off and have the stress of the higher liabilities, as you say at the end of the day its the same games. i was just wondering what other people made of it.
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@liam-willis the biggest thing here in terms of you finding data on other strats is the fact its on the exact same games. If the other strategy had a mix of other games and same games then you could accept that on rare occasions some games will have higher liability. However here you are exact same games. So you are just adding liability. So id very much encourage just selecting one of these (the best performing) and forget the other side strategies that come along. We could trade countless markets and strategies on same games but that presents risks especially at big volume. Fair enough some matches here and there but not having your entire trading on exact same games.
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@lee-woodman i do just similar to you now i just do shg after 50 and ive automated it, i spent too long just bouncing from one strategy to another and not really mastering any. now ive just got the one and comfortable ill be looking to add another strategy and now ive dived into the data its surprised me how 1 filter can throw up so many different strats so im thinking is it worth adding another or just carry on.
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@liam-willis I echo the comments here, I would stick to one strategy and stick with that one.
I’d go through the data and pick the most profitable, easiest one to execute and on the biggest market.
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@liam-willis Its quite personal what you trade and not many of the trades will be truly independent of each other. LCS, LTD at HT, LTD, O1.5, O1.5 SH, O2.5 etc - all of these will have quite a lot of games which are waiting for just one goal later in the second half. I had a filter which originally started as a filter for 2+ SH goals but then i looked at other angles in it and started trading it for 2+ SH goals, LCS at 60' and O2.5 and even though each was profitable in its own right it just felt messy and too busy and like i said before, so i often i was waiting on just one goal for all of the trades. A loss was hard to deal with because it felt like 3x the loss, even though my overall liability was no higher than now. In the end i realised i prefer the simplicity of LCS at 60' and i focussed just on that - it was the best decision i made! Now i can concentrate purely on that strategy and ive worked up to doing just that with a maximum liability of 5%
So if i were in your situation again i would look at a) which is most profitable and b) which strategy/style you prefer trading then make a decision on one from there. If you do insist on trading 2 then dont be in a position where you could lose more than 5% on the back of goal. Theres no harm in recording data from the other to monitor.
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@liam-willis I usually just choose my favourite one, the problem with doing more than one on the same game is you increase the liability and risk in terms of staking percentage. The other option would be to divide your stake up for it.
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@ryan yeah thats it mate just wondered how people dealt with that decision, trade one or both and how they go about bank management for that
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@liam-willis Ok so are you saying here you have a strategy and looking at the data it would also work for another market....
Example LTD and over 2.5 goals?
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@darri boom
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHG brage vs landskrona 0-0 HT
GOAL! This is the only trade for today so a good start to September
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SHG brage vs landskrona 0-0 HT
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questions for everyone: you have a filter with a good amount of data but it shows to be profitable for more than one strategy. 1) so do you just trade 1 and ignore the rest 2) trade both or all strategies it throws up. 3) if trade more than one do you split bank e.g 2 strategies cut the stakes by 50% or add the same staking plan for the 2nd for example you have a shg strat and you use 4% but then you notice a ltd strat do you now use 8% total.
just something to think and debate during the boredom of the international break lol -
Did have an LTD for today but despite the markets being open its been rearranged
Have a potential SHG for today so will post if qualify
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@liam-willis It's so easy with Automation... If you trust your filter it's just plug n play... Ryan's filter will make good monies on leagues which convert @ >=80%
