The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Forgive me in advance this may be a) a ramble and b) nonsense.. however...
So I was invited to a game today, first in a while having worked in football for a few years . The match was Marseille vs Rennes, great stadium and fans are "interesting" .
Anyway the way I've approached trading so far has been to try and balance the statistical analysis of data, with knowledge of the game - I think pretty much everyone here loves football and therefore knows football. @Ryan did a piece a while back about watching games and I want to reiterate how important I think it is from both the point of view of gaining perspective and long term making more balanced judgements.
Having worked in the game I've got a slightly different attitude towards goals stats which I'll expand upon some other time.
Anyway todays game I fully expected a couple of goals and a Marseille win.. In the first half Rennes set up with two deep lying banks of four and Marseille through Guendouzi and Under down the left (I think it was Under - long way a way) played into their hands by playing too slowly and not switching play quickly enough - my Marseille mate was getting very frustrated and it was all a bit dull and predictable - Rennes if anything looked to have a bit more about them - I said to my mate at half time they just need to switch to the right quicker, theres acres of space there.
So sure enough nil nil at Half time. Second half within a few minutes they switch play and score and add another game over.
Now the reason for the ramble isn't to say yeah I know my football, its that if I'd been sat behind my computer during that first half I'd have been letting doubts creep in about my prediction - and any stats I had wouldn't have done anything to analyse Guendouzi and Under being lazy. It relied on the Manager to get things switched at Half Time and the predictable result to take place. I think my point is that taking a minimum number of games (10 is my minimum) over which period managers and players will affect games both positively and negatively and a pattern will of course emerge. But there will also be games where Guendouzi and Under can't be arsed for the whole game and any stats you have are out of the window, it will never be perfect.
But learn the game, learn what creates goals, which teams managers affect games and what the external factors which affect performance are.. did they play in Europe, have they got PSG coming up and so want to save themselves .. is the team full of glory players (Payet) who only perform when theres a bit of attention on them .. all of these factors may give you a rubbish Saturday for example, but I'm suggesting that a balance between a statistical/data driven approach and broadening your knowledge of the game has to help long term. Happy to be told I'm wrong but thought it worthy of discussion
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SHG Tromso v Brann currently 1-0
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@steve-sandell said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHG Wolfsburg v Frankfurt currently 0-1
Goal 1-1
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Anyone else on Valerenga today? Eliteserien was doing very well but with that result it's just gone negative.
Sometimes my calculations are a little off. Still should be showing small profit on this league after 20 selections.
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer I don’t understand how it can work to have a filter which is so susceptible to just 2 losses in all honesty. If you are constantly taking leagues on and off the ‘s**t list’ then you will struggle not to get done by the bad end of variance and may explain the lack of traction. Personally I’d play only the leagues which have 20+ results AND hit your min SR and then review the list every few months.
I'm not at all. Vast majority of leagues are good. The if there's only 20 selections and you take higher odds then of course that's susceptible to 3 losses.
The more selections the less variance will show.
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@richard-latimer I don’t understand how it can work to have a filter which is so susceptible to just 2 losses in all honesty. If you are constantly taking leagues on and off the ‘s**t list’ then you will struggle not to get done by the bad end of variance and may explain the lack of traction. Personally I’d play only the leagues which have 20+ results AND hit your min SR and then review the list every few months.
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
To be fair the base filter is 89% so the trade would of still been good if i didnt play it stricter
Any smaller edge though. How has the Eliteserien been for you? Despite it only being 85% after 20 selections I'm not keen on taking it out for now.
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To be fair the base filter is 89% so the trade would of still been good if i didnt play it stricter
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@martin-walker interesting
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@richard-latimer its on my base filter but 1-1 does better when the away team scores more than 70%
Molde were 67% so i dont write 1-1 on my trading plan
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer it was on my list but not at 1-1
Does your filter sort this bit out or do you sort manually?
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer it was on my list but not at 1-1
Great call.
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It was Valerenga again last time too. They don't seem to be able to score when drawing at HT haha
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@richard-latimer it was on my list but not at 1-1
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer I was on it. I presume you are exaggerating when you say it’s gone from ‘really well’ to ‘negative’ after one result?
No, it was doing well then it hit a 2nd loss then today. 20 selections, 3 losses. Small loss overall from what was a medium profit and then a small one.
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SHG Wolfsburg v Frankfurt currently 0-1
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@richard-latimer I was on it. I presume you are exaggerating when you say it’s gone from ‘really well’ to ‘negative’ after one result?
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Anyone else on Valerenga today? Eliteserien was doing very well but with that result it's just gone negative.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@steve-sandell said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHG Dortmund v Union Berlin currently 2-0
Goal 3-0 nice and quick
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SHG Dortmund v Union Berlin currently 2-0
