The BTC Football Trading Thread
-
In terms of the draw I have found it to be less important again. Same with 2-0.
2-1 I have so far seen great success capping the home odds @ 3.0.0-2 and 1-2 I've found it harder to get a handlle on but I believe it looks like away teams 2.5+
This is just my own data but it would be interesting to see how it correlates with yours. -
@richard-latimer Agreed Richard and as you say the conventional wisdom is where there is a firm favourite, but I also found interesting that combined Odds of 5 still maintain a high strike rate in three of the four filters and this is where there is a good volume of trades too. Its all about the learning for me at the moment
-
@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Some findings:
So I've been analysing my filters to look at the impact of odds . Basically these are four filters which I've been either paper trading or actually trading and in each case recording as much information as I can on each, goal times, results, odds etc and I've been looking at various ways of finding common factors for trades which don't work out.
In this case I came up with the theory that if I combined the odds of both teams it may make an interesting measure - the following sample of over 1000 games where I recorded starting odds of both teams.
You will see two figures because for a number of trades where stats suggested a goal, I traded out and the recovered the position, I mark these as Yellows on my data, for the purpose of the number in brackets I've counted any of these yellow trades as Reds hence the adjusted figures.
I separated the total Odds by rounding up or down. so 5 is 0 to 5.4/ 6 is 5.5 to 6.4 and so on. Whats interesting is that:
a) There is clearly a significant difference within certain filters which will, if the trend continues inform my selection.
b) Its helped my highlight the most consistent filters across the odds ranges and potentially will let me drop at least one filter on that basis.All of this for me is about finding ways to eliminate the emotion from the decision making process on trades. Hopefully may be of some interest:
Filter One:
Total Odds of 5 , % Green = 87% (83% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 6, % Green = 85% (82% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 7, % Green = 93% (85% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 8, % Green = 88% (84% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 9 plus , % Green = 98% (91% Adjusted)Filter Two:
Total Odds of 5 , % Green = 82% (73% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 6, % Green = 78% (72% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 7, % Green = 88% (76% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 8, % Green = 100% (98% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 9 plus , % Green = 93% (93% Adjusted)Filter Three:
Total Odds of 5 , % Green = 90% (84% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 6, % Green = 86% (82% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 7, % Green = 97% (90% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 8, % Green = 88% (81% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 9 plus , % Green = 100% (95% Adjusted)Filter Four:
Total Odds of 5 , % Green = 90% (83% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 6, % Green = 86% (83% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 7, % Green = 91% (79% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 8, % Green = 87% (80% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 9 plus , % Green = 96% (89% Adjusted)In summary when it comes to Filter 2 I am obviously having to work far too hard with any odds from 5 to 7 and may well just trade with combined odds if 8 and over from that filter if the data continues to back it up.
In all cases combined Odds of 9 plus are giving a S/R of in the region of 90% plus so when shortlisting trades on busy days I'll focus on those (again if the trend continues)
I'm sure theres a lot more to consider, one question I'm asking myself and be keen to get views, is the balance between maintaining a volume of green trades and the %, by which I mean, in each filter the volume of trades is pretty much double under combined odd of 5 and 6, to the rest, so for example on Filter 4 I'd be arguing to keep Odds of 5 and 6, reject odds of 7 and 8, and keep odds of 9 plus .. maybe I'm overthinking that?
Anyway hope its of a bit of interest.
It's interesting for sure but in effect it seems to be finding what I have found for some scorelines. In order for the number you are looking at to be higher you need a one side bias which would naturally make one or other of the teams a heavy favourite. The higher the number the heavier the favourite.
For 0-0 I find this helps massively. For 1-0, on my filter, I need an odds on home fave no greater than around 1.75. For 0-1 and other scorelines it doesn't appear to be as important but still plays a part. A smaller underdog is less likely to get back into it and a smaller away fave more likely to hold what they have.
-
SHG Karagumruk v Antalyaspor currently 0-0
-
Some findings:
So I've been analysing my filters to look at the impact of odds . Basically these are four filters which I've been either paper trading or actually trading and in each case recording as much information as I can on each, goal times, results, odds etc and I've been looking at various ways of finding common factors for trades which don't work out.
In this case I came up with the theory that if I combined the odds of both teams it may make an interesting measure - the following sample of over 1000 games where I recorded starting odds of both teams.
You will see two figures because for a number of trades where stats suggested a goal, I traded out and the recovered the position, I mark these as Yellows on my data, for the purpose of the number in brackets I've counted any of these yellow trades as Reds hence the adjusted figures.
I separated the total Odds by rounding up or down. so 5 is 0 to 5.4/ 6 is 5.5 to 6.4 and so on. Whats interesting is that:
a) There is clearly a significant difference within certain filters which will, if the trend continues inform my selection.
b) Its helped my highlight the most consistent filters across the odds ranges and potentially will let me drop at least one filter on that basis.All of this for me is about finding ways to eliminate the emotion from the decision making process on trades. Hopefully may be of some interest:
Filter One:
Total Odds of 5 , % Green = 87% (83% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 6, % Green = 85% (82% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 7, % Green = 93% (85% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 8, % Green = 88% (84% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 9 plus , % Green = 98% (91% Adjusted)Filter Two:
Total Odds of 5 , % Green = 82% (73% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 6, % Green = 78% (72% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 7, % Green = 88% (76% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 8, % Green = 100% (98% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 9 plus , % Green = 93% (93% Adjusted)Filter Three:
Total Odds of 5 , % Green = 90% (84% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 6, % Green = 86% (82% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 7, % Green = 97% (90% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 8, % Green = 88% (81% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 9 plus , % Green = 100% (95% Adjusted)Filter Four:
Total Odds of 5 , % Green = 90% (83% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 6, % Green = 86% (83% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 7, % Green = 91% (79% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 8, % Green = 87% (80% Adjusted)
Total Odds of 9 plus , % Green = 96% (89% Adjusted)In summary when it comes to Filter 2 I am obviously having to work far too hard with any odds from 5 to 7 and may well just trade with combined odds if 8 and over from that filter if the data continues to back it up.
In all cases combined Odds of 9 plus are giving a S/R of in the region of 90% plus so when shortlisting trades on busy days I'll focus on those (again if the trend continues)
I'm sure theres a lot more to consider, one question I'm asking myself and be keen to get views, is the balance between maintaining a volume of green trades and the %, by which I mean, in each filter the volume of trades is pretty much double under combined odd of 5 and 6, to the rest, so for example on Filter 4 I'd be arguing to keep Odds of 5 and 6, reject odds of 7 and 8, and keep odds of 9 plus .. maybe I'm overthinking that?
Anyway hope its of a bit of interest.
-
@malcolm-pipes said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Thanks all. Advice taken and I knew I was doing something a little silly. I will not be risking that much again.
I would only add that what you do with a small bank must be mimicked with a bigger bank. Get into good habits with a smaller bank so that if you manage to grow it you will automatically carry those good habits over.stake only what you are comfortable with.
There are many good links around here to help you with staking.
-
Thanks all. Advice taken and I knew I was doing something a little silly. I will not be risking that much again.
-
@malcolm-pipes said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
HTLTD/HTLCS
Tampines v Home United
I went for HTLCS at 10 with a liability of 8 points (my bank is very small at the moment as I am new to this).
Goal after 5 mins for a very quick profit. Thanks Ryan. The thing is despite the very small amount of money involved and no real problem if I lost all my liability my heart rate was way up. Does it get any easier on the old ticker?
No.
-
@Malcolm-Pipes everyone typing similar messages lol. Was going to say, if your heart is pounding it sounds like overstaking. Somehow we need to learn to remove emotion, which is even harder to do if your hearts screaming at you.
-
@james-woodroffe was just about to type the same thing
-
@malcolm-pipes mate don’t ever risk 8 points with a small bank, that’s asking for trouble. Forget about profit whilst learning and just stick to doing the right things the profit will come with time.
-
@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
HTLTD/HTLCS
Tampines v Home United
I went for HTLCS at 10 with a liability of 8 points (my bank is very small at the moment as I am new to this).
Goal after 5 mins for a very quick profit. Thanks Ryan. The thing is despite the very small amount of money involved and no real problem if I lost all my liability my heart rate was way up. Does it get any easier on the old ticker?
-
@mark-maguire That does make sense, bash them about a bit see if they can handle the game then you know if they will make it or not.
-
@john-folan easy money lol
-
1-1
-
@john-folan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mark-maguire I’m having some of it at 3.4. Also backed under 2.5
Cashed the two out for a profit overall. 12 minutes left
-
@mark-maguire I’m having some of it at 3.4. Also backed under 2.5
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@john-folan might have a little nibble John
