The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@mark-maguire so are you saying that you have an game selection for say over 1.5 and its man u vs burley for example and burley are 7 you wouldn't place that trade even if it covers all your other criteria? but if its say man u vs saints and saints are 5 and its the same o1.5 market you would look at that trade?
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SHG Vejle v Viborg currently 1-1
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SHG Darmstadt v Dresden currently 1-0
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@nick-allan so basically I've found that as well as the selection criteria regarding goals, shots on target etc the starting odds (match odds) for the teams that come up on my filters have an impact - so one filter for example I was analysing yesterday - if I removed those games where the combined starting odds were 7 or 8 (I round up/down) then the strike rate improved from around 80% to 90% - this was based on paper trading every game on the filter, it meant I would trade around 60 less games overall. I'm currently applying the same maths to my other filters.
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
he odds of each team to win in the games have a fairly big say in the percentage of trades that are green or red.
can you elaborate on this buddy? no sure what you mean?
I find this the case as well but only for certain scorelines. Close odds for 0-0 and 1-0 draw way too many blanks. Also 0-1 to an extent.
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
he odds of each team to win in the games have a fairly big say in the percentage of trades that are green or red.
can you elaborate on this buddy? no sure what you mean?
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@nick-allan I generally trade the 02.5 and another goal markets, in terms of the overs market the stuff thats becoming more and more clear on my filters is that the odds of each team to win in the games have a fairly big say in the percentage of trades that are green or red. Especially on a Saturday therefore I automatically eliminate trades in the filter that don't fit my odds criteria. And essentially go through a process of ranking the trades and picking the strongest.. that can be a top 5 or top 10 or whatever I think I have time and capacity to trade.
I'm still very much a newbie to all this but I've found that works for me.
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@dan-mackinnon yeah definately dan , its a day to forget but im level for the month so im not in a loss situation, onwards and upwards
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@darri cheers darri some very good points there, thank you buddy
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@nick-allan judging what other people have said it seems like yesterday was just a bad day. As I said on Richard’s blog, sometimes it is just variance. If your SR is correct then losses are inevitable. It’ll be great if every 8 wins we got 2 losses and the pattern repeats forever, unfortunately that’s not how random sequencing works! Just remember, you have bad days and you had good days but “this too shall pass”.
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@matt-ayles thanks matt, yes treading has days like this and we have to accept it and move on, think it was just the amount of loss, a 6PT losing day is hard to swallow, but swallow we must and move on
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@mark-maguire yeah Saturdays do seem to be my worst day, the thing is that due to the amount of trades its the most labour intensive, hence my question of does anyone not trade Saturdays
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@mark-maguire yeah i agree Saturdays always bring up tonnes of trades and being more selective is important, its hard to find these in say an O1.5 market, i do find myself focusing on how many games we have seen O1.5 in both last 10 games and H2H but struggle to find other metrics?
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@liam-willis Thanks liam, i have to say i perhaps dont look at a game enough and spend the time needed to access its validity and thats something i need to work on
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
manage to make 6 points so far this month, prob one of my best months so far, lost it all today, all of my strategies had a meltdown!!! to say im gutted is an understatement, Risked the same points as i have all month the only difference is the amount of trades due to the amount of fixtures.
does anyone not trade Saturdays because of this? anyone just forget Saturdays as they are not profitable?
you need more data to know if Saturday's are not profitable, how have they been during the rest of your testing?
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@ryan its interesting whats going on there .. they've formed a strong link with Lincoln City and the new manager at Gainsborough is Youth Coach at Lincoln .. the idea is to develop young talent and get some young Lincoln players experience of mens football, its been a tough start for the youngsters but they're winning their home games
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@mark-maguire yes very close to me!
I don’t go Gainsborough very often it ain’t the nicest lol
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@nick-allan strategies are not won or lost in one day. You have to forget about each individual day. The weekends should be no different to the weekdays. Your strategy when it hits 100-1000 doesnt care what day it is when it shows its p/l. The fact you are having a bad weekend is just variance. More games means more chance of swings. Your strategy if a good one long term will have good and bad weekends and it will average out over the year. If you keep having bad weekends try to look deeper into your strat for a tweak as there will more than likely be a few things you can change. People always feel this way after weekends because its when we get most trades, strategies are to be managed long term not short term. Best advice would be if it keeps occurring to look over data and try narrow down. Your strategy is either good long term or not, its all about a long term edge, doesnt matter when those trades are made.
