The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@lee-woodman I appreciate that you say look at this strike rate but look at the strike rate from what time frame? Do I look at a daily strike rate? Weekly? You make a good point about leagues that the one thing I haven’t looked at and I can certainly look at that.
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@nick-allan I used to have a nightmare on Saturdays aswell and as others have said, there will be something in the data. First you have to rule out the issue being you, which can obviously happen if we’re trading a lot more games. You can do this by checking you results sheet (not PL but actual SR to see if it drops off). If It does then it’s time to figure out why! For me I found I had a few leagues which were just terrible in terms of SR and they just so happened to be busiest on Saturdays - so if I removed those my SR bumped right back up. There’s no point dropping the stakes as it’s just pointless, unless it’s a temporary measure whilst testing something out, but you want to look through your data first to at least get a hypothesis of what it could be then maybe paper trade to test your theory
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Not to be in Perugia or Kaluga .. sorry folks.. on the naughty step
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@nick-allan i dont think staking is the issue. A losing trade is a losing trade no matter your stake. Theres something in your data you havnt spotted that can reduce the losers
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@nick-terracciano bank protection is paramount, im still only doing £10 per pt and my bank is around £8k so its not money im losing its just frustrating
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@martin-walker been contemplating reducing the stakes per trade to say .25 instead of 1pt or even paper trade on a Saturday for say 2 months to see if there is a big difference, its annoying that the busy day of the week is bar far the one that's less profitable
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@martin-walker that’s what I’m beginning to think trading Saturdays makes no difference It just magnifies my overall results. No good disguising it. My best move so far has been to protect my bank whilst I try to improve
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@nick-allan i can say with 100% certainty that the day of the week is not the issue. I dont have the answer but id certainly look deeper into it than day of the week
If you take saturdays out youll end up in the same position just over a longer period.
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@darri Yeah I thought it wouldn't be this the start software cause I agree that's very good. It's kind of hard to calculate my strike rate because I use a lot of splits stake strategies. For example my first half golf strategy goes in at at 15 mins and 30 mins so how do you calculate it? Via an average odds?
Yeah all of my strategies have basically been tested for 100 trades per strategy using paper trading, but I have to agree that perhaps I didn't utilise the strike rate correctly as I looked it very much from a p&l perspective as opposed to a strike rate because it's difficult to do that in a split stake situation.
The question about Saturday's was a genuine one I wanted to find out if people did struggle on Saturdays as I really do. I absolutely agree with you in relation to variance that drawdowns are probably going to be more prominent when you've got days where you are trading more games. Just wondered if the resolution is to perhaps maybe not trade those days? But I agree that if a strategy is been tested it should be fine for any day's trading. Its just frustrating that all.
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And another one in Russia FK Kaluga currently 1-1 I like a SHG
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I like another goal in Perugia too currently 1-1
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Goal in Hamburg
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Goal in Russia 2-1
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@nick-allan the stats software is fantastic its not the issue.
Yes your edge is beating the probability the market sets of an event happening. So how big is it? For example, if you have a SHG strat that uses odds of 1.25 to back. Your strike rate is 85%. Over thousands of games that edge will win but its not exactly significant and will see a lot of variance. The closer we are to the probability the more we might see it go up and down in S/R. So not just this month but how big a gap do you have between your strike rate and the odds you are taking? So on weekends when we have more trades we leave ourselves open to variance as we are trading more games, dont care about what day it is and perhaps stop daily totalling and just update results end of week. Over the course of this strat (im assuming you have months of data behind your strategy before your putting money in) how many bad saturdays have you had compared to good ones. The bad ones always stick in the memory. Its why i think this is to do with your strat rather than 1 particular day of the week.
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I also like Another Goal at Hamburg 1-1
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I like a SHG in Russia
Spartak Tuymazy vs Chelyabinsk 1-1
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I don't see how they can take it back. Their fault for leaving the market open. On many occasions, people have lost money due to betfair collapsing and the standard response has been some nonsense about risk and responsibility. Well, that works both ways; their responsibility to close a settled market.
No doubt they are covered with one of their in-play loopholes... Keep us posted @John-Folan
A little while ago I entered a trade... World Cup I think, there was a foul in the pen area market not suspended and I entered my trade based on time and not because of the foul... Got matched BEFORE it went to VAR, a pen was awarded and my matched bet was cancelled!!!
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@darri yeah i look at all trades, so i do analysis daily and look at a monthly P&L perspective daily per strategy as well. what i dont understand is that i do the same thing everyday and don't have. When you say edge what do you mean? surely the edge is in looking at a SR long term?
i agree with you that a strategy is good it should work long term, but for some reason and i dont know why Saturdays are costing me big time, if i take Saturdays out of my trading calander this month i would be 9.5 points up instead im 1
the stats i use are the ones on this site are you saying they are not up to wack?
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I don't see how they can take it back. Their fault for leaving the market open. On many occasions, people have lost money due to betfair collapsing and the standard response has been some nonsense about risk and responsibility. Well, that works both ways; their responsibility to close a settled market.
Happened to me a few months back didnt suspend on a var pen i looked at replay def a pen so traded the goal.
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I don't see how they can take it back. Their fault for leaving the market open. On many occasions, people have lost money due to betfair collapsing and the standard response has been some nonsense about risk and responsibility. Well, that works both ways; their responsibility to close a settled market.