The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@alan-steward Hi Alan, I used to have a strategy call the snowball which was from UFT and it was formulated around this idea that if you back the unders that you look to lay say every five minutes so if an early goal does go in then yes and you've got a couple of lay bets in the market that will reduce the amount of your loss so that is something I could look at most definitely.
Yeah I agree with you that if the game livens up then you exit the trade the only issue with that is that a lot of ttrad8ing is being done automatically due to time restrictions. Perhaps on BFBM there's an option that if there is say two shots on target it would exit the trade automatically?
I think strong faves do give you the good odds from a value perspective, but of course strong favourites may start strong and therefore the chance of an early goal is heightened. I don't know if there is anywhere on the BTC software where you could look at slow starters? That way you could look at the odds and if the teams in question are slow starters there's gonna be value in that trade?
Not sure where on the site you can find bus parkers
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@darri Hi Darri,
Some great comments thank you I have a few questions:
Id consider looking for high scoring teams, who start poorly. – how would you find this is the stats do you think? at the moment I have been looking for low % in goal times with my selections, how else do you think I might be able to do this as part of the software?Think the starting price is essential for these trades, too low and it wont be a good risk/reward. A starting price on unders above 1.8 would be a good start – yeah I think this is something I'm definitely going to be looking at as I think you are right if you are not getting the value this could end up with it being a problem certainly if you see issues with the strike rate
Do you think there is a strategy there it just needs tweaking, it's why I reached out just to see if anyone who's possibly trading unders might have some ideas? -
@john-folan Hey John, I used to trade the gg's but I never seemed to settle on a strategy that was profitable for me longterm. I always struggled with back to lays, where I had two strategies - a 12 tick hedge and of course the ever popular dob's. The only other strategy was lay to back but the problem I had with that strategy is not putting in a stop loss and getting caught out on numerous occasions all through my inability to accept a loss. So horsetrading has been put on the backburner for me but it is something that I would like to explore more once the horse racing trading software comes out. I do think working 9:00 to 5:00 Monday to Friday does make it a little tricky, it's why a lot of my trades are automated cause I'll be away from the screens working.
There does appear to be a stat for conceding or scoring a goal early doors set up in the filters but I don't know if it's working correctly? But I do check goal times once I have my selections but of course you can always be undone with an early goal.
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@nick-allan for me literally every strategy you want to build or test can be built using this thread
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1926/stats-software-members-challenge-july-2020
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@nick-allan I don't like trading unders it really messes with my head... I'm an overs man... However;
You really should be looking at starting odds circa 1.95 to 2.20 and maybe look to drip stakes into the lay side say 3, 4 or 5 drips Split over 80/90 ticks to almost immediately reduce your exposure.
If you back at 2.20
Lay @
1.9, 1.6 & 1.3Or lay @
1.95, 1.7, 1.45Or lay @
2.0, 1.8, 1.6 & 1.4Maybe play around with the numbers and try 3, 4 lays or even 2... But definitely try reducing exposure.
And if the game starts lively maybe get out after 5/7mins.
But as @Darri said look for strong favs but I would add... against bus parkers.
Hope this helps
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@nick-allan this strategy has been a curse to many and its a hard one to grasp, 2 goals can come in very quickly before betfair unsuspends and boom you are in trouble. With your way of trading out on 20 then you run the risk of a full loss. Perhaps have a look at the videos @Martin did about this strat, i know he stopped doing them due to results but might help fill in your gaps if you have a slightly different set of criteria. Id consider looking for high scoring teams, who start poorly. Man city could be an example. Think the starting price is essential for these trades, too low and it wont be a good risk/reward. A starting price on unders above 1.8 would be a good start, and maybe look to exit for a set amount. But its how big that loss is when the early goals come, thats the game breaker for them and why many avoid it. Its like a low profit potential and high ceiling for a full loss. Im sure its doable tho so hopefully martin can help.
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Hey guys,
As its the international break I thought I would ask some advice on an under 2.5 goal strategy that is struggling a bit with its strike rate. So the strategy places a trade backing under 2.5 goals at kick off and exits after 20 minutes with the win or a loss.So strategy is set up on BTC in the image attachment:
Once it brings up all the selections I'll check the goal times from zero to 10, and 10 to 20, I don't want to see anything over 10% in each section, if it does I won’t take the selection. I’m looking for teams that basically don’t score a great deal of goals in the opening 20 mins. So I don’t really focus on picking teams with strong U2.5G stats as im only interested in the opening 20 mins.
Now if that too generous, should I be looking for lower percentages? as in testing there wasn’t a great deal of difference until the % got over 10. Should I be looking at adding additional filters? Should I be looking at leagues where teams don’t score or concede in the first 20 mins?As I don’t use the football stats as I normally trade the four legged sports I’ll ask a stupid question. Is there a stat for conceding a goal early doors? Even if a team doesn’t score many they might be crap starters? Maybe you could incorporate that?
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Hey guys,
As its the international break I thought I would ask some advice on an under 2.5 goal strategy that is struggling a bit with its strike rate. So the strategy places a trade backing under 2.5 goals at kick off and exits after 20 minutes with the win or a loss.
So strategy is set up on BTC in the image attachment:
Once it brings up all the selections I'll check the goal times from zero to 10, and 10 to 20, I don't want to see anything over 10% in each section, if it does I won’t take the selection. I’m looking for teams that basically don’t score a great deal of goals in the opening 20 mins. So I don’t really focus on picking teams with strong U2.5G stats as im only interested in the opening 20 mins.
Now if that too generous, should I be looking for lower percentages? as in testing there wasn’t a great deal of difference until the % got over 10. Should I be looking at adding additional filters? Should I be looking at leagues where teams don’t score or concede in the first 20 mins?
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Hey guys,
As its the international break I thought I would ask some advice on an under 2.5 goal strategy that is struggling a bit with its strike rate. So the strategy places a trade backing under 2.5 goals at kick off and exits after 20 minutes with the win or a loss.So strategy is set up on BTC in the image attachment:
Once it brings up all the selections I'll check the goal times from zero to 10, and 10 to 20, I don't want to see anything over 10% in each section, if it does I won’t take the selection. I’m looking for teams that basically don’t score a great deal of goals in the opening 20 mins. So I don’t really focus on picking teams with strong U2.5G stats as im only interested in the opening 20 mins.
Now if that too generous, should I be looking for lower percentages? as in testing there wasn’t a great deal of difference until the % got over 10. Should I be looking at adding additional filters? Should I be looking at leagues where teams don’t score or concede in the first 20 mins? -
Thanks
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@john-folan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Does anyone know if its possible to use betfairbotmanager from my phone using the vps without the need for a computer.
I have zero experience with it all and no nothing about it but im looking to learnI don’t use a vps but pretty sure they can be accessed from a phone/tablet. Might be a bit fiddly though.
You should be able to connect to a VPS via mobile using Remote Desktop client... I've not been able to connect my mobile to my VPS since switching to Simply Hosting... I haven't fully explored why it won't connect as I have a tablet and laptop... BUT... Word of caution, I wouldn't advise using a mobile phone as an only means to access Software hosted on VPS, its okay for emergencies but not recommended as an only means... I imagine you'd be better off using Web based trading software
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Does anyone know if its possible to use betfairbotmanager from my phone using the vps without the need for a computer.
I have zero experience with it all and no nothing about it but im looking to learnI don’t use a vps but pretty sure they can be accessed from a phone/tablet. Might be a bit fiddly though.
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@nick-terracciano said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin welcome to my world!!
haha I'd take the value there everyday
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@martin welcome to my world!!
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@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Krylia Sovetov at 2.3 in Russia look a potentially value lay here, Dinamo well on top but 1-0 down, 9 shots to 2 so far inc 6 on target. Dinamo quite big favs pre-match and +128 on the ELO ratings, plus scored in all their home games.
not to be Dinamo had lots of shots in that second half but couldn't score
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Does anyone know if its possible to use betfairbotmanager from my phone using the vps without the need for a computer.
I have zero experience with it all and no nothing about it but im looking to learn -
@alastair-todd i dont think you can do it mate its frustrating i know, the way i do it is to get watch the odds when you can and try and get a rough idea of what the odds will be at certain times then structure your liabilities around that as long as your strike rate is high enough and you are profiting the games you miss out on are irrelevant, im not sure i explained that to well maybe someone else can explain better
