The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Late goal Braga 1.90
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Just wanted to ask a question about calculating value in relation to Strike Rates.
Pretty easy to calculate if you've got one set of odds say 1.5, but what happens if you're looking at split stakes? Do you calculate the SR using an average odds model?
So using the over 1.5 Ryan's model as an example if on the 30th minute min when 1st trade goes in odds are say 1.4 and then on the 50th minute when the second trade goes in the odds are say 2.0. Would you use a calculation like this 1.4 + 2 = 3.4/2 = 1.7. So if 1.7 is ave odds the SR would need to be at least 58% or greater to make profit?
Of course with split stakes it does make it more difficult because you could get a goal that goes in when the first trade is placed at 1.4, would you then have to calculate a different strike rate?Hopefully this makes sense? It’s a bit hard to describe
Nick, what I always do is work out your avg win (pts) and your average loss (pts) then when you have this data you'll know what strike rate you'll need to achieve for decent profit/green... With Ryan's Split Stake and entering first stake on 30mins you want min 1.4 odds... Hopefully you'll be around the 1.45/1.5 mark.
Hopefully this helps.
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Just wanted to ask a question about calculating value in relation to Strike Rates.
Pretty easy to calculate if you've got one set of odds say 1.5, but what happens if you're looking at split stakes? Do you calculate the SR using an average odds model?
So using the over 1.5 Ryan's model as an example if on the 30th minute min when 1st trade goes in odds are say 1.4 and then on the 50th minute when the second trade goes in the odds are say 2.0. Would you use a calculation like this 1.4 + 2 = 3.4/2 = 1.7. So if 1.7 is ave odds the SR would need to be at least 58% or greater to make profit?
Of course with split stakes it does make it more difficult because you could get a goal that goes in when the first trade is placed at 1.4, would you then have to calculate a different strike rate?Hopefully this makes sense? It’s a bit hard to describe
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@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'm going to say it, I rate Sterling.
He should be playing more lol
Would you have him back at Liverpool?
Not a chance for me anyway.
I agree. It rarely works out for player or club when they return. Also, he's a Judas!
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'm going to say it, I rate Sterling.
He should be playing more lol
Would you have him back at Liverpool?
Not a chance for me anyway.
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@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'm going to say it, I rate Sterling.
He should be playing more lol
Would you have him back at Liverpool?
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expecting a SHG too):
19:45 - Blackburn v Peterborough
3-0 at HT. Perfect. I’m not going to bother with a SHG now.
Layla tov!
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Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expecting a SHG too):
19:45 - Blackburn v Peterborough
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@Ryan I had Chigs and Guiseppe as joint first, but then Chrystelle mucked it up with the raw bread... as you say
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@dave-hayes I had the lady as winner, until she served raw bread mind!
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@Ryan Bake off was good and we(Me and my wife) chose the right winner
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHG chelsea vs juve 1-0 HT
SHG malmo vs zenit 1-0 HTGoals! 3/3 for tonight, thats now a run of 8/8 on posted trades, hope some have got on
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay under 1.5 Goals: Likely to be a SHG too
17:45 - Villarreal v Manchester United
19:45 - Nottingham Forest v Luton Town
19:45 - Ipswich Town v Rotherham United2/3 in the 1.5’s and 2/3 from the SHG.
Red card in the Forest v Luton match and Luton missed a 2nd half penalty. It happens
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SHG chelsea vs juve 1-0 HT
SHG malmo vs zenit 1-0 HT -
@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHG villareal vs united 0-0 60 mins
Goal! That price was far too nice
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@darri man u been terrible de gea pulled out worlie save... Got 90th min Ronaldo winner written all over it
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SHG villareal vs united 0-0 60 mins
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Lay under 1.5 Goals: Likely to be a SHG too
17:45 - Villarreal v Manchester United
19:45 - Nottingham Forest v Luton Town
19:45 - Ipswich Town v Rotherham Unitedle jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game...
