The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@thomas-larsen nice call thank you
You’re welcome
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@thomas-larsen nice call thank you
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@frode-lia tak Frode
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Antwerp look value over fenerbahce tonight, fener have made wholesale changes tonight and not in good form anyway. Backed on the draw no bet just to be safe
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@thomas-larsen Nice
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Over 1.5 in Brøndby -Rangers 1.72
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@dan-peacey said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
This is a general question and I wonder if the answer can be applied over other sports? I would like to know how you price up matches because Im guessing that the betfair odds are pretty efficient and is hard to extract value. Would you price up a football match the same way as say NBA or NFL?
I assume this is referencing the draw being difficult to account for? What I would do in this case is ignore the draw, price up the teams as in, ‘If they played 10 times how many would the team you would have as favourite win.’ Then work out the percentage into odds. Then check the draw no bet market and if your price differs a lot you may have a value selection. Then just use the match odds market to trade as the odds will be bigger because of the draw factor.
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@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dan-peacey It always seems to be a dark art pricing up matches, @Martin is very good at it and will be able to explain his prices which I personally learned a lot from.
@Martin there is a topic for a blog post if ever I saw one
apologies if you have already done it and I'm being stupid 
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@dan-peacey It always seems to be a dark art pricing up matches, @Martin is very good at it and will be able to explain his prices which I personally learned a lot from.
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@darri thanks for the advice
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SHG milan vs porto 0-1
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@dan-peacey if you think they are hard to extract value then thats a false understanding. Would mean no set and forget strategy pre match has an edge. A good way to price up a game is to remember that odds are just % of event happening. People need to value prices based only on % chance of that event happening. How you do that is where we get our edges on the market, im not into NBA or NFL but im assuming youd use data to find value in teams outperforming odds or underperforming in the same fashion. Id encourage you to try not price up the whole match and instead focus on one event or team as it could get complex quickly if your trying to price everything accurately.
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This is a general question and I wonder if the answer can be applied over other sports? I would like to know how you price up matches because Im guessing that the betfair odds are pretty efficient and is hard to extract value. Would you price up a football match the same way as say NBA or NFL?
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@matt-ayles I think some of the sites will do it, you can get the data from Betfair there was a site that you entered it into and it plotted it for you but cannot find it now which is really annoying!
I thought I bookmarked it.
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@james-rome Not sure to be honest, I’ve only used it for bits and pieces
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@lee-woodman i just had a quick look do you know if you can export the results
