The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG)
17:00 - Bohemians 1905 v Karviná - HT: 2-0 / FT: 3-0
18:00 - Brest v Saint-Étienne - HT: 0-0 / FT: 0-1
18:00 - Strasbourg v Bordeaux - HT: 3-1 / FT: 5-2
18:15 - Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Hapoel Tel Aviv - HT: 0-0 / FT: 2-1
19:30 - Watford v Chelsea - HT: 1-1 / FT: 1-2
19:45 - Genoa v Milan - HT: 0-2 / FT: 0-3
19:45 - Hibernian v Rangers - HT: 0-0 / FT: 0-1
20:15 - Everton v Liverpool - HT: 1-2 / FT: 1-46/8 in the Under 1.5 Goals lay
8/8 in the SHG
Back tomorrow
Layla tov
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@dj-reid said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG)
17:00 - Bohemians 1905 v Karviná
18:00 - Brest v Saint-Étienne
18:00 - Strasbourg v Bordeaux
18:15 - Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Hapoel Tel Aviv
19:30 - Watford v Chelsea
19:45 - Genoa v Milan
19:45 - Hibernian v Rangers
20:15 - Everton v LiverpoolWhat are your criteria for a SHG Keith?
There isn't one. I just noticed that my picks tend to have SHG.
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG)
17:00 - Bohemians 1905 v Karviná
18:00 - Brest v Saint-Étienne
18:00 - Strasbourg v Bordeaux
18:15 - Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Hapoel Tel Aviv
19:30 - Watford v Chelsea
19:45 - Genoa v Milan
19:45 - Hibernian v Rangers
20:15 - Everton v LiverpoolWhat are your criteria for a SHG Keith?
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@dan-peacey Yeeah, what I was thinking. Just saw today that Aguero is having to retire. There was a cardiac arrest in a Norway 1 game a week or 2 go.
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@matt-ayles said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
The Chelsea game has been suspended due to a medical emergency in the crowd but Betfair odds on things like first half goal continue to tick up as if the game is still going on...
They've finally cottoned on.
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The Chelsea game has been suspended due to a medical emergency in the crowd but Betfair odds on things like first half goal continue to tick up as if the game is still going on...
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@steve-sandell quite a lot then haha
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@steve-sandell said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Interesting figures for Nov. My whole database consisits of 29 leagues
Nov - SHG was 77% normal is about 80%. so SHG was well down compared to the normal this wont stay like this its impossible has to rise back up
0-0 Ft score is at 8% normal is about 4% so we have had double the amount of 0-0s which is madnessso if anybody had a bad or not so good Nov this is properly why and remember it cant and wont stay like that
Nov - 851 games 660 SHG = 77%
72 0-0s = 8%Do you record 1x2 odds as well? Reason I ask is my selections were way down but not necessarily my strike rate. For a scoreline to qualify for me it must hit a certain pre-match odds range.
For example 1-0 is very much a home favourite odds on thing where as 1-1 has a much wider range but a small gap in the middle where I believe teams are perhaps too equal in strength.
Yeah i record 1x2 etc got about 36000 games on a spreadsheet
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@steve-sandell ah gotcha, remember tho its all in the strength of people filters to pick out the better games. If you just look at it from a general picture then youll get general data. Thats what the markets want, thats were you find your edges. Id say apart from this last week, there have been an abundance of goals in games predicted to have plenty, for example keiths selections all had pretty good stats pre match for goals, alongside my picks too youd have been very happy with that kind of month. So while big data suggests poor month, actually there have been patterns in solid games staying true.
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@steve-sandell from these shg s/rs what are the min odds you are taking, these s/r from HT only seem rather small and also we cant tell if you are taking value, id expect a shg filter to be high 80s or even 90 min to be something id look at trading within, if this is purely ht only entry. Think of it like this if you are with an 80% s/r then you need 1.25 just to break even (pre comms) even if you started trading 1.3 thats still a small edge on price and ideally youd like more cushion. With these margins a slight variance hit will be very costly. Remember there will be people with varying results based on their own filters. Price is often missed on these kind of posts but reveal way more. Have you got a spreadsheet we can look at to try spot a tweak for you?
This is just taken from my database. It was just too show how fewer goals there were in Nov
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@Steve-Sandell its all in the individuals filters and what price they take (value) general data can tell a lot but actually the markets have been over kind this month in terms of price. Something I didnt capitalise on myself. Weather was a huge factor this past week as james said.
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@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Bloody ell England women don't mess about. Do you think Kane was fuming? He'd love to pump his stats in a game like that.
Didn't watch it but he'd probably enjoy a few hat tricks in the U23's as well. Best striker of our generation haha!
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@matt-ayles said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Bloody ell England women don't mess about. Do you think Kane was fuming? He'd love to pump his stats in a game like that.
Was a crazy game! Must have been so demoralising for Latvia.
I've managed to get tickets for the Euro 22 QF at the Amex which will feature England assuming they win their group.Shame you have to travel to the Amex. Then again my only experiences have been as an away fan and they hate us as much as we hate them!
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@steve-sandell said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Interesting figures for Nov. My whole database consisits of 29 leagues
Nov - SHG was 77% normal is about 80%. so SHG was well down compared to the normal this wont stay like this its impossible has to rise back up
0-0 Ft score is at 8% normal is about 4% so we have had double the amount of 0-0s which is madnessso if anybody had a bad or not so good Nov this is properly why and remember it cant and wont stay like that
Nov - 851 games 660 SHG = 77%
72 0-0s = 8%Do you record 1x2 odds as well? Reason I ask is my selections were way down but not necessarily my strike rate. For a scoreline to qualify for me it must hit a certain pre-match odds range.
For example 1-0 is very much a home favourite odds on thing where as 1-1 has a much wider range but a small gap in the middle where I believe teams are perhaps too equal in strength.
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Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG)
17:00 - Bohemians 1905 v Karviná
18:00 - Brest v Saint-Étienne
18:00 - Strasbourg v Bordeaux
18:15 - Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Hapoel Tel Aviv
19:30 - Watford v Chelsea
19:45 - Genoa v Milan
19:45 - Hibernian v Rangers
20:15 - Everton v Liverpool -
@steve-sandell the bad weather at the weekend seem to effect alot of games i thought
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Interesting figures for Nov. My whole database consisits of 29 leagues
Nov - SHG was 77% normal is about 80%. so SHG was well down compared to the normal this wont stay like this its impossible has to rise back up
0-0 Ft score is at 8% normal is about 4% so we have had double the amount of 0-0s which is madnessso if anybody had a bad or not so good Nov this is properly why and remember it cant and wont stay like that
Nov - 851 games 660 SHG = 77%
72 0-0s = 8% -
@keith-anderson
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@dj-reid said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Iay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG)
17:30 - Maccabi Netanya v Ashdod
19:30 - Newcastle v Norwich
19:45 - Wrexham v Yeovil
19:45 - Hellas Verona v Cagliari2/4 in the Lay Under 1.5 goals & 2/4 in the SHG.
The first 3 games had a red card in the first half.
The game that didn't have a red card finished 0-0
Do you trade out on a red card or let them run?
Yes, I would normally trade out…but I didn’t last night. I had a zoom meeting, so I was heavily distracted
