The BTC Football Trading Thread

mick mcmahon

@keith-anderson Thanks Keith - I made £3.20 on the Sampdoria game

Was thinking of doing SHG for the Lazio game, but there's been three already in the first 15 mins!

Ryan

@mark-maguire Love how visual that is as well, it gives you the visual cue to go for it

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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@alan-steward how are you picking your games nowadays? Filter or something else

I do trade from live IPS but most of my games are filtered

Akiva Anderson

@mick-mcmahon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@Keith-Anderson Thanks for doing the 3% thing. I'm also a newb with a bank of £122 in my betfair account (I have more in bet365 and smarkets from match betting - but forcing myself to keep small whilst i learn...) so looking forward to following along and learning.

One quick question - what odds are you looking to hit for your SHG? I think mentioned it in your original 3% thread but can't find it.

In relation to the 3% club go as high as 10% of my bankroll. I know that’s not recommended, but I’ve always been aggressive in my trading. I actually don’t do that now, but that’s because I’m trading with substantial sums and I no longer need to.

Mark Maguire

and a nice goal sees me green up straight after my second drip

Mark Maguire

@Ryan Biggest battle for me has been the balance of knowledge and stats .. the latest piece of the jigsaw has been the BTC ratings - the ELO and Goal Supremacy in particular - I also get a relative performance stat which shows form based on opposition played - all this helps counter me "Over thinking" and one of the best things I've done was one of the simplest - having the cells automatically turn red or green according to the percentage and odds .. if I get more than two reds I'm in caution mode, if they're all green I can be aggressive. Still a long way to go but its going ok so far.

Ryan

@mark-maguire I LOVE this write up!!!

Mark Maguire

So I promised @Keith-Anderson to post my selections today such as they are, like others was looking forward to Bologna and Fiorentina games which would have been the strongest trading games today.

I'm left with:

In the 02.5 market on my filters I have

Sampdoria vs Cagliari
Lazio vs Empoli

But I'll trade both cautiously, as I've said elsewhere my filters are based on what happens in games but not necessarily goals scored, essentially attacking intent and accuracy consistently. I aim to trade in and out early on split stakes (I'm out of the game on 60 minutes). I get quite a few early goals and that has dictated my split stake strategy.

Once I download the filters I put them through a Poisson model then Bayesian model.

This helps dictate my staking or leave alone

So for the above my poisson showed

Sampdoria game with a 50% chance of o2.5 (odds of 2.17), a 76% chance of over 1.5 (1.53) and a 91% chance of a FHG (1.18)

So I colour code my sheet and it automatically goes red (caution) with 02.5 % below 70%, 01.5 % below 85% and FHG % below 90%

For Samp I will put small stakes in early because I like the FHG % and I like the Home odds at 1.7, (below 1.85 is good) but I will very much dictate my split staking according to whats going on in the game - I need a certain number of shots on target to qualify my third and fourth entry points.

Additionally my Bayesian model says Samp should be more like 1.59 so they are value and I may LTD if odds dictate.

For Sassulo same process applies but even more caution:

42% (2.54) o2.5
70% (1.53) o 1.5
79% (1.36) FHG

And the Bayesian model says Sassulo should be more like 2.02 and Genoa 3.5 (Betfair have 1.75, 4.6)

So I'm likely to wait and see the action and wait for value on this one.

Finally I have an O1.5 filter

This throws up Sampdoria as above 76% .. I'll wait a bit and lay Under 1.5 for value

Then I have Lazio vs Empoli where I see an 83% chance of O1.5 - I prefer over 85% but will take a look although I think Lazio should be 1.95 not 1.6.

Summed up as a cautious days trading ..

By the way the projected score lines are

Sampdoria 2-1
Sassulo 2-1
Lazio 2-2

I don't get excited by 2-1 or 1-2 scoreline from Poisson but dabble in correct score market for 2-2, 1-3, 3-1 etc because I've found value in backing the correct score and trading out after a couple of goals. The reason I dont get excited about 2-1, 1-2 is thats almost the default for the Poisson. Anything Variance to that is of interest.

Ramble over.

mick mcmahon

@Keith-Anderson Thanks for doing the 3% thing. I'm also a newb with a bank of £122 in my betfair account (I have more in bet365 and smarkets from match betting - but forcing myself to keep small whilst i learn...) so looking forward to following along and learning.

One quick question - what odds are you looking to hit for your SHG? I think mentioned it in your original 3% thread but can't find it.

Richard Latimer

@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Another one bites the dust. Bologna gone.

damn been looking forward to that one this morning!

I just have Lazio as a potential now. Talk about slow start to the year.

Richard Latimer

@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@chris-osborne That's Liverpools style mate lol it's like the Arsenal of old everybody said they needed a solid DM everyone seemed to know it but them lol

Not the old old. You mean after Paddy left for Juve I guess. Still would have won the league if Martin Taylor hadn't assaulted Eduardo.

Martin Walker

@alan-steward how are you picking your games nowadays? Filter or something else

Martin

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Another one bites the dust. Bologna gone.

damn been looking forward to that one this morning!

Ryan

@chris-osborne That's Liverpools style mate lol it's like the Arsenal of old everybody said they needed a solid DM everyone seemed to know it but them lol

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@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@dan-mackinnon Its a check for me, I always harp on about it but its so simple the what has to happen Q - if you apply it to every step of the trade its really game changing.

I.e. Liverpool trade now you backing over 1.5 goals

Whats has to happen - Goals
What has to happen to get goals - players need to score, who?
Who gets the goals for Liverpool - Jota, Salah, Mane (assist, moves players out of position to get goals)

RRrrr they aren't there, swerve that.

If you did the same set up with City you'd see their players playing who get goals - looks a safer trade.

To be fair wouldn't you agree that elite teams are difficult to trade anyway due to keen odds... I don't tend to load elite teams on my bot for Split Stakes but I do for SHG... So long as that particular league convert within 80% post 60mins

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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Another one bites the dust. Bologna gone.

Yep, was one of 3 Split Stake picks today... just Milan v Roma standing... Or as I type

Richard Latimer

Another one bites the dust. Bologna gone.

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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

This might be a daft question, but how much of an influence does AFCON have on trading teams without key players I remember Ryan saying he doesn't trade the week after international breaks due to players travelling and wondered if traders factor in depleted squads at this time of season.

All depends if they are the star player. As Martin has already said, it’ll be a big factor for Liverpool, but can’t see it being a big factor for all clubs

I agree we’ve lost N’didi, Amartay and Inheacho, the first two aren’t a goal threat, inheacho would have been playing as Vardy and Daka injured but Injuries more than AFCON bigger factor for us currently.

It’s also FACup this weekend a lot if first team regulars at AFCON probably wouldn’t have played this weekend.

What I don’t understand from Liverpool is they’ve known about this for a long time why did they not get back up for Salah and Mane in the summer

Akiva Anderson

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

This might be a daft question, but how much of an influence does AFCON have on trading teams without key players I remember Ryan saying he doesn't trade the week after international breaks due to players travelling and wondered if traders factor in depleted squads at this time of season.

All depends if they are the star player. As Martin has already said, it’ll be a big factor for Liverpool, but can’t see it being a big factor for all clubs

Ryan

@dan-mackinnon Its a check for me, I always harp on about it but its so simple the what has to happen Q - if you apply it to every step of the trade its really game changing.

I.e. Liverpool trade now you backing over 1.5 goals

Whats has to happen - Goals
What has to happen to get goals - players need to score, who?
Who gets the goals for Liverpool - Jota, Salah, Mane (assist, moves players out of position to get goals)

RRrrr they aren't there, swerve that.

If you did the same set up with City you'd see their players playing who get goals - looks a safer trade.