The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@richard-latimer Agree very few leagues will get to 20 home games, but most big leagues will go beyond 10 games. A lot of teams coming up to their 11th home game of the season in the next month or so, so you’ll start to discount the early weeks of the season on the 10 game filter soon.
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@andy-donnelly said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer No I don’t use previous seasons, so you’re right it’s not really been a problem yet as very few leagues have exceeded the threshold. But we are almost getting to that point now in some of the big leagues so makes sense to make this tweak now
Because it's all home/away specific the only leagues I can think that would ever qualify is English lower and even then it wouldn't be until just before the end. If you were using previous seasons data you could argue there would be a point to it but hardly anything will ever reach 20 home/away specific games in one season.
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Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
20:00 - Bordeaux v Marseille
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@richard-latimer No I don’t use previous seasons, so you’re right it’s not really been a problem yet as very few leagues have exceeded the threshold. But we are almost getting to that point now in some of the big leagues so makes sense to make this tweak now
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@andy-donnelly do you use prev seasons as not much will qualify on 20 games in the current season? Most leagues a little shorter and some much shorter than that.
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I think I’ll revert to 10 games for now. It won’t change my previous results a great deal as barely any have exceeded this yet anyway.
In parallel I will keep the same filter with 20 games running and look to compare results and potentially aide final selection decisions on the days trading.
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@andy-donnelly said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin Great video on the unders.
Question on the bit you mentioned around using 10 matches of home/away data rather than 20 matches, would you recommend restricting most strategies to last 10 home/away?
Realised that my filters are largely set to 20, as it happens most winter leagues are still below or only just exceeding this threshold so now is a good time to tweak it.
Has anyone done any comparative testing to see whether 10 or 20 makes a material difference to their strategies?
I like 10 as I feel it's more relevant but still give enough of a scope, sometime five games feels too short to me. Also it worked well when I first tested it a few years back. You could always have two filters with different scope and test to see which works best.
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@mark-maguire another great write up!
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@andy-donnelly You could initially carry on with you 20 filter, but make a note if it doesn't appear in you 10 filter and see if you can garner any info from there?
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@andy-donnelly said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Thanks Richard/Mick.
I’m wondering whether the best thing to do is to add a clone of my filters to see both options (10 and 20). Might be a lot of extra work to track fully, but even if it just allowed me to vet my chosen selections each day and see whether it would also have made the list on the other data set, that may prove useful to spot drop offs in form
Just checked. I'm lying, I use 10 haha! Think it was the default and is a nice balance between form and long-term.
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Thanks Richard/Mick.
I’m wondering whether the best thing to do is to add a clone of my filters to see both options (10 and 20). Might be a lot of extra work to track fully, but even if it just allowed me to vet my chosen selections each day and see whether it would also have made the list on the other data set, that may prove useful to spot drop offs in form
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The other thing I always think about is the old saying. Form is temporary, class is permanent and the way I look at it, the more data backing up my filter the better.
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@andy-donnelly I've been doing mine on 20 for so long now that it would be foolish to change as it's where all my data is. That said, I also use the previous season but only after each team has played 4 matches in the league (so generally 2 home, 2 away) but this is just for fitness.
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@andy-donnelly I'm far from any sort of expert but i believe its to do with form. Some key player(s) could have been smashing in goals for fun earlier in the season but injured for the last 8 games. Again too small a number could skew it too, it the last 3 games where the top 3 in the league. I always presumed, circa 20 teams in a league, 10 means they should have played some top and some bottom so have a nice spread.
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@martin Great video on the unders.
Question on the bit you mentioned around using 10 matches of home/away data rather than 20 matches, would you recommend restricting most strategies to last 10 home/away?
Realised that my filters are largely set to 20, as it happens most winter leagues are still below or only just exceeding this threshold so now is a good time to tweak it.
Has anyone done any comparative testing to see whether 10 or 20 makes a material difference to their strategies?
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So todays picks for me (Over 2.5 - looking for earlyish goal and out by 60 mins)
Bayern vs B Mönchengladbach (unsurprisingly)
Helmond vs DordrechtIn terms of approach, Bayern is green all the way : O2.5 73% (1.46), 01.5 90%(1.19) FHG 98% (1.10)
Projected score of 4-0 and by my maths Borussia should be at 27 (Bayern at 1.29) Currently 1.36 and 7So I will in principle trade aggressively but the odds will be against decent returns, so I may hold back for a bit of value, trade the first half goal market - odds may send me to over 1,5 FHG to trade out. And trade the scoreline at 4-0 (v small stakes) If away goal Bayern always good for a come back trade.
This also comes up as an O1.5 trade but odds may prevent me doing this unless its a slow start.
Helmond - I think we are dealing with two poor teams and caution because I think the home odds should be higher ( 2.02 vs 1.9) Both teams concede plenty of goals.
Stats on my model are O2.5 51% (2.11) 0 1.5 77% (1.4) FHG 91% 1.18
Projected scored 2-1
So will cautiously trade based on both teams ability to concede and the high FHG percentage, but third and fourth drip will depend on in play stats.
Yesterday ended with decent green. Overall +2 points - Lazio over 1.5, early goals and green up for Sassulo and Samp and just had a decent day with Samp because the gap between 1st and 2nd goal combined with in play stats sent me back in using some of the green to trade the overs again, then after another goal I traded LTD - albeit I didn't expect the goal to come from Cagliari so asking myself whether the LTD was a good or bad trade (but I was using green)
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@keith-anderson LOVED it when you did this before!!
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Not sure if anyone has manually added the Unders Galore Remake filter (I'll get @Adam to add it to members filters) but I know a couple have a nice winner at 2.7 in Kuwait yesterday. Not usually a league I would trade but not ruled out any leagues yet in testing. Still testing as want to make sure it is still a solid filter but promising start.
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@martin-walker good work!
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@dan-peacey said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Only 1 selection for tomorrow
Amorebieta v Tenerife
what strat do you use? edit : ok, LTD
