The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@andy-donnelly said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer just checked the stats and they are now listed. They weren’t earlier, so all good now
They're not the same games though. Fiorentina were down to play Udinese at the weekend.
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LCS Fenerbahce 1-1
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@andy-donnelly wow good work @Adam!
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@richard-latimer just checked the stats and they are now listed. They weren’t earlier, so all good now
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@andy-donnelly yeah may as well if you have time!
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@andy-donnelly said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I see a couple of the postponed games from the weekend in Serie A are now being played today and tomorrow. Anyone know how these can be re-added to the stats software? Or will they automatically be re-added some time later?
I’m sure I had both fixtures in my filtered lists over the weekend but stupidly deleted the lines of data from my spreadsheet so can’t reconfirm the stats
You sure about that? I have Fiorentina v Torino and Cagliari v Bologna. These aren't the games from the weekend.
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@martin ok no problem, I may go old school and do manual checks on these two games and tread carefully staking wise
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
3% Club - Day 5
Lay under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
20:00 - Espanyol v Elche
Out this morning, just wanted to post this ASAP. I got the lay at 3.40 last night. I see it’s now 3.55
Wow, after getting 3.6, i'm now on 11% green already !
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My filters today: O2.5 backing to get early goal and out by 60 mins. Could be a conservative day today
Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax
O2.5 63% (1.73) O1.5 84% 1.28 FHG 91% 1.18
Projected score 1-3
I think Ajax should be slightly stronger fav (1.56 vs BF 1.7) but caution based on Overs odds. FHG allows cautios small stake then follow in play , may trade correct score (back with small stake to exit on green)Jong PSV vs Almere
O2.5 63% (1.72) O1.5 85% (1.27) FHG 94% (1.14)
Projected score 2-2Will trade based on decent FHG and O1.5, and I like 2-2 as a correct score trade .. allows for flexibility over the first couple of goals and depending on in play stats will decide to let run or exit, Cautious note - odds (I think PSV should be 2.18 but still no clear fav will dictate caution in staking)
Benfica b vs Porto b
02.5 64%(1.69) 01.5 85% (1.27) FHG 95% (1.14)
Score 3-1
Big note of caution is the league, so small stakes based on FHG and O1.5. Big interest for me is I think odds are wrong !
BF have 2.3 /2.5 My extended model says Benfica B should be 1.66 and Porto 7.26 so will look at value lay of Porto B (If nothing else it will help test my model)Two 01.5 trades
Fenerbache 87%(1.24)
Toulouse 90% (1.19)Put the Torino game through my model but percentages aren't great 37% 02.5, 65% 01.5 and FHG 81% so will sit that out
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@andy-donnelly good spoT Andy, The Fiorentina one was on mine . I'll put it thoughts its paces now you've raised it
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@andy-donnelly not sure it will update in time on such a strange circumstance
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I see a couple of the postponed games from the weekend in Serie A are now being played today and tomorrow. Anyone know how these can be re-added to the stats software? Or will they automatically be re-added some time later?
I’m sure I had both fixtures in my filtered lists over the weekend but stupidly deleted the lines of data from my spreadsheet so can’t reconfirm the stats
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3% Club - Day 5
Lay under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
20:00 - Espanyol v Elche
Out this morning, just wanted to post this ASAP. I got the lay at 3.40 last night. I see it’s now 3.55
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
Poor weekend from me, horrible picks ignoring red flags.
Todays are hopefully better picks
Over 1.5
Senegal 1.4
Espanyol 1.39 -
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A very healthy day, will enjoy because they wont always be like this, green across the board for 4.25 points profit (although this due largely to 3 very tasty correct score trades.
Volendam - green with goal on 5 mins and return on correct score trade
Empoli - green on goal, left it in for second goal (13 and 16 mins)
Small green on Genoa min stakes goal after 15 mins and out
Good green on Braga and Correct Score trade
Green on Verona, doubled up expecting Verona comeback exit after equaliser
Inter green doubled up with goals on 30/35 and correct score green
Nice green on Villarreal with goal on 29 and chunky green on correct score - traded out at 2-2 having backed 3-2 before kick off (small stakes but big odds)Green on 1.5s at Venzia/Emploi/Metz(last minute)/Verona/Inter and Villarreal.
A good weekend which I wont take for granted but almost more happy with the games I decided not to trade than I am the greens from the ones I did.
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Anyone of us have footystats premium subscription? Apparently you can download load all the scores across all leagues with them in one download?
Anyone here have it and confirm you can before I sign up with them to be able to download the stats eaxh evening?
Thanks
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@keith-anderson ha ha... I think I need to be more aggressive. Your about 50p in front of me and I started on about £120
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'll be trading in the Correct Score market in the following games today;
Empoli v Sassuolo
I'll be dutching the following target scorelines for 0.1pts
3-1, 2-2 & 1-3 (queued plus 2 ticks on each target score, will take best odds @ KO)
I will lay u2.5 goals in Empoli match to cover red (queued Lay @ 2.96, will take best odds @ KO)
Total liability circa 0.3pts
Bit of a goal fest in the FH so decided to change tactics in the SH and trade the overs market... Removed red in the Correct Score market and traded plus 2 goals... Goal came after the red card and locked in 0.07pts green to add to the o2.5 goals lay
Total trade green 0.17pts, not perfect but not bad after a FH goal fest
.....................................................................................................................Lyon v PSG
I'll be dutching the following target scorelines for 0.1pts
3-1, 2-2 & 1-3
I will lay u2.5 goals in Lyon match to cover red
Total liability circa 0.28pts
Full red here 0.28pts
Was just in the process of evaluating IPS with a view to lay u1.5 goals to cover red when the game went 1-1... From there all I could do was hope for another late goal but not to be
Marginal green from some SHG trades left me all but scratch on the day... A bit of huffing and puffing but no damage done, onwards and upwards
