The BTC Horse Racing Thread

james everard

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Hey guys just for my own understanding. I’ve identified 2 potential LTF for this evening at Will Rogers Downs I think . The 20:45 and 22:45. Both races are 6f however the favourite in the 22:45 is currently 3.6 but of the 9 starters at this stage 5 are priced under 10.0.
For the 20:45 again we have 5 under 10.0 out of 11 and a favourite currently at 4.1.
Both races are identified as Claim does this mean they should be avoided? Cheers guys.

I was trying to test anything above 3.5 but I think I will follow the rules and has to be 4.0. I had for instance one last night in Australia 12 runners , but the fav before I went to sleep was 3.7 but had 7 under 10.0 and only one came in under 2.04 odds inplay. Think It has to be a minimum of 4.0 from now on

james everard

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer nope want to get lots of testing data, was hoping the community spreadsheet would take off but no one is filling it in

I have no idea what details were overnight other than it lost haha. I'll try and remember to fill it in if I do any.

Sorry I didn't get all the details either will do from now on for us all to generate the data required.

james everard

@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Have we established that the Aussie meetings don't work or does anybody know which ones are good to go?

I would leave the Aussie races , I done three overnight all met the criteria and all lost so I would give it a swerve. Usa only at this stage until the Uk races come back hopefully next month

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer nope want to get lots of testing data, was hoping the community spreadsheet would take off but no one is filling it in

I have no idea what details were overnight other than it lost haha. I'll try and remember to fill it in if I do any.

Martin

@richard-latimer nope want to get lots of testing data, was hoping the community spreadsheet would take off but no one is filling it in

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter are you stopping completely for now then?

Martin

@martin-dodd won't be enough liquidity for aus or US I'm thinking more UK when it comes back

? Offline

Hey guys just for my own understanding. I’ve identified 2 potential LTF for this evening at Will Rogers Downs I think . The 20:45 and 22:45. Both races are 6f however the favourite in the 22:45 is currently 3.6 but of the 9 starters at this stage 5 are priced under 10.0.
For the 20:45 again we have 5 under 10.0 out of 11 and a favourite currently at 4.1.
Both races are identified as Claim does this mean they should be avoided? Cheers guys.

? Offline

@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin-dodd yes but the good thing there is we want £100 matched in the big races, this would be good for the UK stuff for sure

In that case, here's some data from yesterday's AUS races...number of runners, Number of BSPs below X, number of runners with IP below X
It should be relatively straightforward to expand this to more dates/countries.

Let me know if any different fields/values would be useful and I'll see what I can pull together

0_1586167898876_AUS_Race_Data_LTF_v1.xlsx

Martin

@martin-dodd yes but the good thing there is we want £100 matched in the big races, this would be good for the UK stuff for sure

Ryan

@richard-latimer Hmm don't know, not used it for this for a while.

You might have to manually go through and check then add the automation to the races that fit the criteria - of course a fav can come in and skew it

? Offline

@martin-dodd said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

I was wondering if we could use Betfair's SP data to quickly build up a historic data set.
https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices

We could get race type, number of runners, BSP values and in-play min values

I'm working today so can't look at it until this evening at the earliest but might be useful?

I've had a look at the data and I'm not sure it will be good enough. The In Play min is based on lowest value where £100 was traded, I've checked a couple of races where I had multiple horses match at 1.8 and not all of the horse show as low as this figure. I had one race where 4 horses matched but the data shows their lows to be 1.65 (winner), 1.65, 7.0, 9.2.

Probably the detailed historic betfair data would be better but I have no idea how to process the files myself.
https://historicdata.betfair.com/#/home
However, if anyone does then they are offering free Pro and Advanced data for the last month or more.

0_1586158389340_2611828b-f5e1-4c49-b6eb-8a8fba7ab285-image.png

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin-dodd said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer yes...only one match in each
I haven't had a winner since 11am yesterday...I'm wondering if it's genuinely only one getting to 1.8 or if the liquidity just isn't allowing them to get matched? More investigation needed I think

I did 2.04. Going to do the last at 08:20 and reassess. If it fails I'll stay away from Aus as others have said.

@Martin-Dodd I cancelled that one when I saw one of the horses steaming
As it happened it drifted again and no doubt qualified.

From the graphs i make it 2 matched. Looks like with better liquidity it would have been at least 1 more.

Richard Latimer

@martin-dodd said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer yes...only one match in each
I haven't had a winner since 11am yesterday...I'm wondering if it's genuinely only one getting to 1.8 or if the liquidity just isn't allowing them to get matched? More investigation needed I think

I did 2.04. Going to do the last at 08:20 and reassess. If it fails I'll stay away from Aus as others have said.

? Offline

@richard-latimer yes...only one match in each
I haven't had a winner since 11am yesterday...I'm wondering if it's genuinely only one getting to 1.8 or if the liquidity just isn't allowing them to get matched? More investigation needed I think

Richard Latimer

@Martin-Dodd, did these qualify for you?

Richard Latimer

Anyone else do the early morning aussie ones? 2 from 2 losses so far.

06:15 & 06:35

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@alan-steward Hmmm I think so, been a while since I used fairbot for horse racing and used these features should be 'Keep'

Fairbot is a beast!

@Ryan-Carruthers I just downloaded fairbot as a trial but unless I'm mistaken it won't let you set up a rule to only lay the field when fav is 4.0+?

Any ideas?

Betfair Bot Manager is a lot more pricy.

Richard Latimer

I'm surprised this spreadsheet is still here from 2014 but it is. Massive amount of data from 2014-2018. Seems less runners not necessarily a bad thing.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TrjQbqCma6WrZjuyR-mkXEmgkBMpw73U3mOvsjBSSVQ/edit#gid=0

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter Depends. If you match 3 at those odds you're only losing a little and if you match 4 at 3.35 then it's profit.

That last race matched 3 @ 3.35
2 @ 2.32

So only small losses there. But then 1.67, 1.34 and 1.07 would all have lost.

The race before though would have been quids in. I think 4 matched @ 3.35, 3 @ 2.32 & 2@ 1.67 & 1.34. The only 1 that outright lost was the 1.07.