The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Going to spend the next couple of months testing a theory regarding a certain flat trainer and their horses running styles. For those who follow flat racing closely  A large number of M Johnston horses are trained to be tough front running horses who are hard to pass (particulalry in handicaps). When reviewing my results for previous years a large number of successful trades / Dob's were trained by M Johnston. I have selected the above horses for today (removed odds on shots and non handicaps).

This post is deleted!

3rd day of the experiment. 3 more wins. All numbers exact to those recorded on timeform.

As you can see one of the prices in question is very large even if I take the first 2 highest prices away. It may be that really is a value price for the horse in question but I don't fancy going that high anymore. I have left it on out curiosity only.
Plenty of potential so hoping for some good results to continue the experiment.

@charlescartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Richard:
Can you quickly summarize what it is you are looking at here without reference to the specific website.
Would like to run some data through ProForm and see how it comes out.
Thanks
C
Ok. It is pretty difficult without referencing the website but essentially last 5 runs would have seen the horse in question perform way better than BSP in running but crucially having won no more than 1 of these.
I'm using a median average of the prices where horse didn't win (so between 45 prices) to find my price point. If that price point appears too low in terms of forecast and actual available odds I have taken away the highest price and averaged what remains out. Again, if the price is still too high in terms of what I'm seeing I will remove the next highest and average what remains (usually a straight average between 2 prices).
Median average seems better as removes the outliers.

Richard:
Can you quickly summarize what it is you are looking at here without reference to the specific website.
Would like to run some data through ProForm and see how it comes out.
Thanks
C

@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.
I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.
I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median  it's all the same).
The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.
Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.
Fifth Position matched as low as 2.32. That's 3 potentials in the bag. Think I'll do this for a week and if it's profitable, start up properly next week.
Just That Lord didn't match there.
Admiralty not matched at the required price point either. Nothing until 16:50 now.
These are going really well so far.
In the 17:25 Qawamees matched at a low of 4.0. Price point was 5.4 so another win.
Final race comes to an end, the final horse matches at my price point and fails to win. A 2nd day success. More of the same tomorrow hopefully.
Full results below:

@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.
I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.
I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median  it's all the same).
The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.
Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.
Fifth Position matched as low as 2.32. That's 3 potentials in the bag. Think I'll do this for a week and if it's profitable, start up properly next week.
Just That Lord didn't match there.
Admiralty not matched at the required price point either. Nothing until 16:50 now.
These are going really well so far.
In the 17:25 Qawamees matched at a low of 4.0. Price point was 5.4 so another win.

@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.
I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.
I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median  it's all the same).
The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.
Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.
Fifth Position matched as low as 2.32. That's 3 potentials in the bag. Think I'll do this for a week and if it's profitable, start up properly next week.
Just That Lord didn't match there.
Admiralty not matched at the required price point either. Nothing until 16:50 now.

@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.
I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.
I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median  it's all the same).
The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.
Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.
Fifth Position matched as low as 2.32. That's 3 potentials in the bag. Think I'll do this for a week and if it's profitable, start up properly next week.
Just That Lord didn't match there.

Anyone have any issues with the 1300 at Kempton? I had two matched at 1.81 but somehow Betfair had them registered at 1.58 and I am 100% sure I did everything correctly as when I went to the "Manual Bet" screen again, all the data was correct ready for the next race

@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.
I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.
I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median  it's all the same).
The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.
Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.
Fifth Position matched as low as 2.32. That's 3 potentials in the bag. Think I'll do this for a week and if it's profitable, start up properly next week.

@alansteward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@jameseverard Just been watching that one mate had 1 matched at 1.81... You?
No must have just missed out , I am doing two split stake lays one at 1.73 and one at 1.37

@richardlatimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.
I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.
I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median  it's all the same).
The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.
Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.

@jameseverard Just been watching that one mate had 1 matched at 1.81... You?

@jameseverard Well no result in that one!!!

Going to ltf in the Newcastle 12.45. 12 runners 1mile Handicap 4 under 10.0 fav 5.5

Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.
I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.
I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median  it's all the same).
The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.

Today's selections  again small stakes and looking for odds to shorten inplay.
12.45  Jackstar (currently 13/2)
13.55  Overwrite (currently 7/1)
17.25  Multellie (currently 14/1) 
Figures on the left are star rating as awarded by winning warlock (they go 15). In the middle is the mean average inplay price for the horse excluding where they have won. Far right is the median average. Massive difference. I'm wondering if this wouldn't be possible as a one size fiits all kind of thing.
Median ave seems more sensible but then on some that's crazy low and the mean average might make more sense. I'm not sure. I will have another look tomorrow.