The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Greg Mitchell

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

This is my early doors analysis of the software results vs Betfair (Fairbot) vs Betdaq (BFBM) using LTBF.

Trades
Total 57 horses as per the upcoming qualifiers from 5th to 12th April

Software: 32 trades

Betfair: 47 trades

Betdaq: 43 trades

Losers

Software: 4

Betfair: 9

Betdaq: 6

Strike Rate

Software: 88%

Betfair: 81%

Betdaq: 86%

I know this short example makes it seem that the software is being misleading by avoiding a few losers, but last month it was the opposite and left out a few winners so overall it works out probably +/1 5% overall.

Overall, Fairbot seems to pick up more of the trades, especially around the 3 and 15 marks. Annoyingly it got matched at 2.98 and went on to lose. I would put some of the differences down to whether or not it got matched at 15.

I will keep records and when I get a decent size I'm happy to share more. I think that BFBM is probably more in line with the software results. It's just a shame I started recording this data during a losing month!

Interesting, I was just checking mine:

From the 4th March:

Software - 157 Selections
BFBM on Betfair(uploaded from Software URL) - 152 Selections

Software - 145 "Winners", 12 "Losers"
BFBM - 140 "Winners", 12 "Losers"

Both at roughly 92% Strike Rate

P & L to a £1 Stake

Software + £43
BFBM +£74

Interestingly there were 20 on the Software that weren't on BFBM and 15 on BFBM that weren't on the Software

Dan MacKinnon

This is my early doors analysis of the software results vs Betfair (Fairbot) vs Betdaq (BFBM) using LTBF.

Trades
Total 57 horses as per the upcoming qualifiers from 5th to 12th April

Software: 32 trades
Betfair: 47 trades
Betdaq: 43 trades

Losers

Software: 4
Betfair: 9
Betdaq: 6

Strike Rate

Software: 88%
Betfair: 81%
Betdaq: 86%

I know this short example makes it seem that the software is being misleading by avoiding a few losers, but last month it was the opposite and left out a few winners so overall it works out probably +/1 5% overall.

Overall, Fairbot seems to pick up more of the trades, especially around the 3 and 15 marks. Annoyingly it got matched at 2.98 and went on to lose. I would put some of the differences down to whether or not it got matched at 15.

I will keep records and when I get a decent size I'm happy to share more. I think that BFBM is probably more in line with the software results. It's just a shame I started recording this data during a losing month!

Dan MacKinnon

I believe tomorrow will be 1 year since the horse racing software was released.

Adam

@nathan-cooke said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Hey team, bit of a random one. I was digging online and found an article that suggested where there was a short priced fav, backing the 5th fav has a positive ROI.

We'll add this to the software. Probably makes sense to include nth fave with a max of 6 (6 being the max number of official "places" in any race).

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@nathan-cooke

Unfortunately the fav criteria only goes to 4th fav, otherwise it would of been an easy one to test.

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@emily-knowles

Not seen the thread but you can easilty test this out yourself with the software if i get what you are asking. You can test laying to stake, liability by flat stake or by % bank.

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@david-milligan I can't find the thread that's what got me thinking if I really did read it or not!

David Milligan

@emily-knowles I have read this somewhere too, can you post a link? Would love to see some data

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Unless I'm going mad, I'm sure I saw a thread to say that laying fixed stakes is more profitable than fixed liability as long as the bank management is good.

I'm wondering whether to change my staking from 2.5% bank as a liability to 1% flat stake

What's everyone's thoughts on this?

Nathan Cooke

Hey team, bit of a random one. I was digging online and found an article that suggested where there was a short priced fav, backing the 5th fav has a positive ROI. It was something like in races with 10 to 12 runners where the fav is between $1-$2, back the 5th fav. I'm a bit of a noob and still learning the software, but is this a strategy I can back test?

Richard Coxon

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Anyone got any sweepstakes going?

At work, Back on The Lash and Galvin but nothing real ..

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@john-folan ...Dunboyne, Galvin and Back on the Lash for me!!
Just drawn last horse in the sweep ...Any Second Now last 3 out were
Rambler, Delta and MIne, obviously nobody in pub keeping track of what was left!!

Andy Donnelly

Just read that historically horses starting the national at single figure prices don’t have a great SR in the national! Worth a lay on any if they start short?

Dan MacKinnon

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Noble Yeats
Le Milos
Ain’t that a Same
Any Second Now

Backing each way in the National Later.

I was going E/W on Le Milos and Mister Coffey.

The trouble with laying horses is the names I recognise are usually because I want them to lose. Let’s see how I get on without the software to help.

Martin

Anyone got any sweepstakes going?

John Folan

@emily-knowles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Does a huge race like the Grand National affect the other races in any way? Anything unusual I need to factor in to my trades today?

Probably but I never worry. Business as usual apart from massively higher scalping stakes at Aintree as so much more liquidity.

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Does a huge race like the Grand National affect the other races in any way? Anything unusual I need to factor in to my trades today?

John Folan

Noble Yeats
Le Milos
Ain’t that a Same
Any Second Now

Backing each way in the National Later.

John Folan

@richard-coxon well put. I used to think the same thing when I was making pennies. Then once I was confident in my ability to scalp I had to take the leap of faith. Then you find out you don’t need to take as many ticks. On the flip side you tend to get out a lot quicker on losses as the numbers are bigger. I failed to see a downside with it.

Richard Coxon

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@joseph-henderson said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Apologies if this is a [SNIP]

I use good size stakes now so really don’t need that much movement to make what I want off of a race. I go in a few times depending on what is going on for smaller movements. But to answer your question I’m normally out 2 or 3 ticks the wrong way as that usually indicates I’ve got it wrong. Sometimes it recovers but most of the time that Red keeps on growing

I think that is a very good point, a lot of us 'newbies' forget this aspect, when your 1% of bank roll is, for example, £100 then you dont really need too many ticks movement to make a decent anount of green a day (or obviously equally a large red in the opposite direction). But it means you can be fairly happy with a one or two tick move. I think a lot of us - me included - used to get frustrated with green values of pennies and wondering how on earth you'd ever make a living or at the very least a decent amount trading. So we take too much risk and look for larger tick movements in order to increase the green - usually though ending up with too much red LOL. Since I have started using percentages of net stake and points - so never thinking of stakes as 'money' - I've found it a lot easier all round. If I have a certain percentage green or red I'm out. So now I measure everything as points / percentages of up or down rather than thinking about cash.

So how much percentage of my stake am I prepared to loose, what percentage profit am I happy with is what I go with. Has helped me tremdously.