The BTC Horse Racing Thread

John Folan

@tony-hastie said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Does the horse racing software have the ability to back test places rather than wins? Nothing is glaringly obvious in that dept, asking in hope that Ive missed something...

Not yet. It will do.

Not ideal tho but in the meantime you can download the individual results and include whether it placed or not a the place bsp. Can work out a p and l manually from that.

Tony Hastie

Does the horse racing software have the ability to back test places rather than wins? Nothing is glaringly obvious in that dept, asking in hope that Ive missed something...

Martin

@joseph-henderson probably not tested that one for years, others may know better

Joseph Henderson

What’s the reason for the ‘laying the rubbish tipster’ strategy running from mid-May to mid-August? Did it perform badly in back testing on jump racing?

Philip Brogan

Thanks guys

Paul Foster

@philip-brogan depends on the strategy. For example if you have lay the short odds fave and back the fave then the differing odds criteria would mean that it would be very unlikely for both bets to be placed.

Will happen sometimes, but is quite rare. I just let the bot place all the bets and it will sometimes place opposing bets for different but I'm not too fussed as I treat the bank for seach stratagy as seperate, not a combined bank.

Matthew Sheehan

@philip-brogan I'm still a novice but I personally go with the best risk/reward option of the 2. So eg. Master Richard in the 19:20 at Newcastle on 5th May qualified for pace-lay strategy on the presets and back-the-pace-horse. I was thinking what to do, saw it was at 14.5 odds - thought I would back it rather than lay it at those odds.

Philip Brogan

You can't back and lay in the same race as you would go inplay. How do you handle it if one strategy tells you to back and another strategy tells you to lay in the same race? What strategy do you assign to a race?

Angus Macleod

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@angus-macleod said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan

Yeah mate, like you've made reference to before, fight the urge to react when things aren't going exactly as planned.

It’s like you have a devil and an angel on each shoulder. “CHANGE IT”. “NO LEAVE IT”

So true!

John Folan

@angus-macleod said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan

Yeah mate, like you've made reference to before, fight the urge to react when things aren't going exactly as planned.

It’s like you have a devil and an angel on each shoulder. “CHANGE IT”. “NO LEAVE IT”

Angus Macleod

@John-Folan

Yeah mate, like you've made reference to before, fight the urge to react when things aren't going exactly as planned.

John Folan

@angus-macleod said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

I do love picking winners...especially when I've been laying them!

Bit of a turnaround since then I hope!

John Folan

Flat pace backs seem to be warming up nicely

John Folan

Interesting looking at various strategies. 2021 was a mess for a lot of racing because of Covid restrictions. Starting to think I might write that year off as not reliable stats wise. Some strategies that were good that year have slowly gone downhill. Some I have discarded because that year was bad. I need to do a little thinking about this.

Arran Shackell

@martin

Seems to have reset for May anyway. Might have to start keeping a record before it resets at the start of each month.

The tipsters on this table are now only 6 pts down.

https://www.racingpost.com/tipping/naps-table/

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/naps-table

Martin

@arran-shackell it didn't used to reset that often, is that definite? As yeah it does hamper. You could of course keep a record of it before month end on a sheet to tally it all up

Arran Shackell

Been trading the football here for a few months now and looking at horse racing. Very much still exploring the horses side.

Lay the losing tipster - does anyone actively do this?

I've noticed the sporting life tipster league tables reset at the start of each month. This may seem like a silly question but how are you then supposed to apply the stratergy with so little data to work off?

John Folan

@angus-macleod said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

I do love picking winners...especially when I've been laying them!

Story of my life

Angus Macleod

I do love picking winners...especially when I've been laying them!

John Folan

@jonathan-jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan According to all the backtests we are at the start of the season of plenty. 'Should' have 4 months or so of optimal performance ('should').

Should being the word