The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@stephen-beale
Tough question. I started a test with a portfolio of all the strats at the start of the month (big lays with maria staking). They are not exactly the presets but they are all variations on the presets. Analysis of the long term historical data suggests it should return an average of 3 points per day. You could do an analysis like that to get an idea. BUT...remember thats an average and you will get down days and up days. And , down weeks and up weeks, And (even more frustratingly if you wanted to make an income) down months and up months.
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@stephen-beale hi Stephen, yes it is a question with no answer. Personally I feel setting targets is a bad idea. It leads to madness such as over trading, over staking, chasing etc. and rather than making the target, you end up missing it totally.
My goal is to go steady, and focus on compounding the bank and staking at 1 point on backs and a liability of 3 points on a lay. That way the bank stays intact, the stake size grows gradually and I don’t stress when I hit a loosing streak.
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Hi, I have a question and I feel like it might be one of those "impossible to answer" questions;
I'm looking to make on average between £450-£600 per month from BTC, using the 5/6 presets
How much do you think I'd need to stake in backs and lays to get that?
(Laying to liability)I had a rough start to my BTC career (I'm down around £140), so I've been running in simulation mode on fairbot for the past couple of weeks on min stakes, and I'm having trouble working out my staking with that rough target in mind
I'm just looking for a very rough, ballpark figure ofc, just so I can have a vague idea of what I might be aiming for.
Thanks!!!
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@gary-tunnicliffe said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@greenie having watched it live and again since as sceptical as this sounds, looked like he jumped off to me and what you didnt mention was that there were a fair few lumps £££ on the subsequent winner at 1000 in running too
Ruby Walsh did that once. Odds on favourite on a Mullins horse. “Fell off” so the longer prices Mullins horse could storm through and win.
Yes I was there both times...Annie Power, Chuckle then Benie larger chuckle!!
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@matthew-sheehan Chelt races in particular or all racing this week?
It wouldn’t sweat it too much. You can spend too long looking for reasons why stuff has a bad week. Used to drive me up the wall. Then I read a book called “Fooled by the Randomness”. Made me look at it all in a new light.
is it this book john? im looking for a new read
Yes mate. Different cover to mine but it’s the same book.
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@daniel-mills said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@fraser-cord yeah, back the favourite isn't looking too great for me. I was waiting for the end of the month to evaluate it and check back that it's not just been on a poor run for 3months.
You checked version 4.0 with the age limits? Has made a big difference.
i take it its the same rules as previous versions where you are backing the fav in the race, as opposed to the selection? so looking at the fav in 14:00 at kempton which of course can change over the cousre of the day and in particular the last 5 mins before the off
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@matthew-sheehan Chelt races in particular or all racing this week?
It wouldn’t sweat it too much. You can spend too long looking for reasons why stuff has a bad week. Used to drive me up the wall. Then I read a book called “Fooled by the Randomness”. Made me look at it all in a new light.
is it this book john? im looking for a new read
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@gary-tunnicliffe said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@greenie having watched it live and again since as sceptical as this sounds, looked like he jumped off to me and what you didnt mention was that there were a fair few lumps £££ on the subsequent winner at 1000 in running too
Ruby Walsh did that once. Odds on favourite on a Mullins horse. “Fell off” so the longer prices Mullins horse could storm through and win.
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@daniel-mills said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@fraser-cord yeah, back the favourite isn't looking too great for me. I was waiting for the end of the month to evaluate it and check back that it's not just been on a poor run for 3months.
You checked version 4.0 with the age limits? Has made a big difference.
I've been running the age restrictions, but wasnt aware about previous wins at the track condition
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@daniel-mills said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@fraser-cord yeah, back the favourite isn't looking too great for me. I was waiting for the end of the month to evaluate it and check back that it's not just been on a poor run for 3months.
You checked version 4.0 with the age limits? Has made a big difference.
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@greenie having watched it live and again since as sceptical as this sounds, looked like he jumped off to me and what you didnt mention was that there were a fair few lumps £££ on the subsequent winner at 1000 in running too
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I was thinking that at the time! I decided on a short priced lay there and had pretty much resigned myself to the fact it was going to win the race and then Sean Quinlan decides he doesn't want to be on the horse anymore
quids in! -
Did anyone see the 1.40 Sedgefield today?
Telhimlisten unseated Sean Quinlan on the last and there was £14k matched at 1.01!
Someone's had a nice lay there!
https://twitter.com/BetfairRacing/status/1638902465633599489?t=QrNJ1ko-cf76Bx7WOh3pkA&s=19
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@fraser-cord yeah, back the favourite isn't looking too great for me. I was waiting for the end of the month to evaluate it and check back that it's not just been on a poor run for 3months.
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@karl-pick Yeh i know its all the long game. Guess you hope when one startegy is poor, others pick it up. Not have all 3 go at the same time.
I didnt trade today and looks like another losing day if I had, so every cloud
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@angus-macleod Yeh i have faith in the short odds lays. Hit a really tough patch at the end of Jan and recovered. I believe it will again. The only worry is thats 2 crashs in the space of a few months, from 2 years of data we havnt seen this happen or close to it. Its co-incided with my others crashing too.
Of all the strats, I reckon short odds is the one i trust. Back the fav im starting to have my doubts though, seems way too volatile
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@fraser-cord said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Hello all traders. Looking for a bit of insight from those of you who have been trading for a while on the horses. Ive been trading in some form for 6 months now so have a rough idea (only 2-3 months on horses), but im becoming concerned with the current downswing (i know they happen but the extent of it).
I know the software is a guide and can never predict the future. But the short odds lays and back the fav have not had a profitable day now in close to 2 weeks (short odds lays is more than 2 weeks). I've checked the software and cant find a spell like this. Yes both were points up this month until then, but now are massively down. They say madness is keep doing the same thing but expect a different outcome. When do you start to become concerned. And as it happens, this totally coincided with my football strategy going from points up to down during the same period so the last 2 weeks have been shocking for my trading.
Any advice much appreciated
I’ve had bad spells like this before in my live trading. I’m 5 points down for the month (I was a few up at the start). Not bothered in the slightest.
Have to agree having a bad couple of weeks, but long term profit is good for me. If you actually look at some of the strategies you can have runs of 20 losers, but like everything you have to look long term, Rome wan't built in a day as the Old folks used to say, only problem is I say it now!
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@william-maynard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
why is it when we get the e mail for back favourite at the off it obv says wait until the off, but when you look on strategies software it actually names a horse ? is that just the fav at that time of checking?
yes, rather than list every horse like the layshort.
