The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Just been reading an interesting study about distance travelled and thought I'd share as it came up the other day:
Quite a nice logistic regression study which seems to suggest there's not much relationship between distance and wins alone, but it might be interesting to research some of the other potential "confounding factors", for example prize money. It makes sense that the races further from the stable are the ones with higher prize values, to make it worth the travel, but they may also be harder races to win.
The software makes it pretty easy to explore these other factors by changing the group breakdown of the results
The limitations of the study are that it only focuses on one trainer, and also it's a few years old. Maybe things have changed post-covid now the horses aren't self-isolating any more
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@Joshua-Varley Just that individual bot
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@Greg-Mitchell *selections
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@Greg-Mitchell P.S sorry, one more thing - with the 1 bet per market selected, would this affect other possible solutions, using different bot, or does it only apply to that single bot?
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@Greg-Mitchell you're a star - thanks mate!
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@Joshua-Varley Yes it would do the trick, but be careful because just thinking it through, the single selection may change during the "betting time", so as well as setting the Min/Max selections to 1, I would change the setting sin the bot "Edit" section (se Jonathans screen shot earlier) to only allow 1 bet per market. This will then only place a bet if there is a single selection at any given time during your "betting window".
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@Greg-Mitchell Hi Greg - sorry to jump in again, but quick question about the min/max number of qualified selections you mentioned in the staking rules on BFBM, as I hadn't come across it before and i'm curious if this would work for the following problem:
I want to place a lay bet on horse if it meets the all the other criteria (price, time etc.), but I only ever want to bet on a single horse in a single race. Sometimes, there will be multiple selections for a race - if one of these meets the criteria, but the others don't, then I'd still like to place the bet on the horse that does. However, if more then one meet the criteria, i'd want to avoid betting all together.
It seems like the staking rule you mentioned might be the solution to this?
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Great. THanks,
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@Jonathan-Jones I have a very similar bot for Dutching the 1st 4 Favs and I use Start Price to Determine the Favourite and it has always worked, even though I am putting the bet on at 10 secs before the start time.
The determine favourite from before in play, would only be required if you wanted to bet in play (I think), so no need to tick that.
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Never noticed this.
So, chance is probably wrong (whatever that is). AS i am 10 seconds before the start wouldnt 'Back' be more correct?
Also, What is the 'Use favourite positions from before Inplay" checkbox? Should i tick that too? -
@Jonathan-Jones What criteria are you using for Determining the favourite in the Bot "Edit" settings? Try changing it to Start price.
Also tick all the ignore rules in the "Bet on Imported selections/tips" rule
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No. I never use that.
Software might give me several selections. Backtest will also often have 2 or 3 bets on a race. Fairbot does go over on bets but that only ever if a horse has moved in and then out of the top 4 in the last few seconds. BFBM is betting on even more.My BFBM is just testing at the moment so my data collection is a bit sporadic (as in it often gets nuked) but there is definietly something not set up right
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@Jonathan-Jones In addition to what @Greg-Mitchell has said, in the software, have you got a max number of selections chosen in the strat builder?
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Can be more than 1 selection. The software will provide me with several selections (or could be several) for each qualifying race. What i want is for each of those selections to place a bet if:
in the last 10 seconds before the official start
The odds are between 3 and 25 inclusive
The selection is in the top 4 (so fav 1,2,3,4).So i may get more than 1 bet per race.
Thats pretty much it.
I do get differences from the backtest in fairbot but thats because the selection might of been in the top 4 at 10 seconds out but not at BSP. So i get an additional incorrect bet (waiting on the big update to see what difference that actually makes to the bottom line). Thing is they are easy to identify in fairbot. I get more bets in BFMB than fairbot or the backtest so something is not correct with my setup for the strategy. -
@Jonathan-Jones Sorry for jumping in this thread, but what are you trying to achieve. I am guessing (maybe incorrectly), that you only want to bet on one selection, so if the strategy has two in the same race and they both meet the odds criteria, do you avoid that race?
If you only want to bet if there is only one selection in any given race, then in BFBM you will need to add a "Min/Max number of qualified selections" rule in the Staking section. Set it to Min 1, Max 1
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Hi, Bit more help if you can please?
Still doesnt seem to be correct. BFBM is still having a lot more bets than the software says it should and also a lot more bets than the same strategy running on Fairbot. Fairbot looks correct apart from the consistent issue of horses moving in and out of the top 4 in the last 10 seconds causing the odd additional bet. BFBM seems to have more (and furstratingly though BFBM has infinitely better reporting than Fairbot its not as easy to see why things like this are happening.
This is what i have:
What i want it to do is place a bet on one of the imported selections if that selection is in the top 4 and the LTP is between 3 and 25 within the betting window from 10 seconds before the start to the official start time.
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@Joe-Beeston That's probably because you need to select some columns in the "Tailor Your Results" section of the Betting Rules:
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@Adam Hi Adam,
Is this going to be the reason why some of the 'Individual Trades' section is populating with the results? I have some strats where it is populating and I have others where it is just coming back as blank.
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@Adam
Thanks,
That will be it. I normally start about 9:30 and i check the last day bfore i do the rest so i know results are in. But, i didnt know the pace thing might delay some strats so thats going to be the reason. No issues my end i can wait till a bit later before running things. Last update though would always be a handy thing to have. -
@Toyin-Butler It's usually closer to 08:30-09:00 tbh, just depends on when the results appear for the previous day's races.
