The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@Keith-Driscoll cheers Keith, this is really interesting.
Can you confirm which column represents the pts profit per year for the strategy?
thanks!
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@Keith-Driscoll This is great, thanks for sharing. It highlights that 2023 is currently above average wins for BFs (2.61 standard deviations above the mean) so nothing to panic about
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Here are the results of BF's since 2013, using just a Classification filter.
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@Philip-Brogan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Too many people are following the strategy and now we are influencing the market? - Nope. It would take tens of thousands to screw this up. Change in season from jumps to flat lots of young horses this time of year? - Nope, we are mid-season. Plan old variance suck it up and ride it out? - No idea what this means :smile: Some strategies never recover and continue to stagnate or lose money? - They do, this one does not. Nothing lasts forever no strategy is evergreen and the markets change over time - This one pretty much does last forever :wink: How many strategies should you run to reduce variance? - As many as you can :smile: -
@Philip-Brogan personally I feel I have to stick at it as it's proven profitable for so long prior to this month. I don't feel its fair to write off a strategy after one month of bad results recently. Admittedly like you say it is its worst month for a long time, but I'm comfortable to ride it out with my bank roll. No concerns for me right now.
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LTBF has had its worst month in over 2 years of back testing.
Some thoughts- Too many people are following the strategy and now we are influencing the market?
- Change in season from jumps to flat lots of young horses this time of year?
- Plan old variance suck it up and ride it out?
- Some strategies never recover and continue to stagnate or lose money?
- Nothing lasts forever no strategy is evergreen and the markets change over time
- How many strategies should you run to reduce variance?
Does anyone have some thoughts on this?
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@Greenie If you have issues with the page not loading, clear the cache for BTC: https://www.minitool.com/news/clear-cache-for-one-site.html
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Anyone else's horse racing software not loading? Just getting a blank page myself
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@Dan-MacKinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Keith-Driscoll I agree. I'm just thinking of solutions if people are saying it's getting too much.
The main lesson I'm taking from this is to readjust my staking. There are software results, then extra contingency on top of that, and then just outliers that come out of nowhere. With my staking I had allowed for the first 2 but underestimated the 3rd scenario.
We live and learn! Good thing we have this community to bounce ideas around
I use LTBF but only laying with a one point liability rather than stake. Yes it means the successful lays typically win only 0.1 to 0.2 points but it keeps my heart rate under control on the bad days.
It also keeps LTBF in line with my one point back stakes on other strategies - I don't tend to vary my staking and stick with a 1 point loss liability whether I'm backing or laying. -
@Keith-Driscoll said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I never switch to paper trading when a new system hits a bad run, I carry on. Most of the time they pick up if the research is good. If it breaks the bank, fine. I then do further research, and start again. In most cases, with an additional filter/lower stake. No use binning something you had faith in to starts with.
As for season changeovers, that happens in April/October. It's just swings and roundabouts at other times.
Someone needs to pin this post
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@Keith-Driscoll I agree. I'm just thinking of solutions if people are saying it's getting too much.
The main lesson I'm taking from this is to readjust my staking. There are software results, then extra contingency on top of that, and then just outliers that come out of nowhere. With my staking I had allowed for the first 2 but underestimated the 3rd scenario.
We live and learn! Good thing we have this community to bounce ideas around
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The Beaten Favourite strategy has been a disaster this month, judging by the back testing this month is an outlier. Personally I think it's a case of leaving it as is, and let it run until there is enough data to suggest that the strategy needs tweaking. There is always going to be variance, it's just not much fun when you are going through a drawdown.
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I never switch to paper trading when a new system hits a bad run, I carry on. Most of the time they pick up if the research is good. If it breaks the bank, fine. I then do further research, and start again. In most cases, with an additional filter/lower stake. No use binning something you had faith in to starts with.
As for season changeovers, that happens in April/October. It's just swings and roundabouts at other times.
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@George-Bowling yeah, the only thing I would consider without doing a real deep dive or separating the strategy out into variations is to have a type of stop loss and paper trade.
For example if you had a 100pt bank and had a 50pt stop loss and 65pt to restart. When your bank hits 50pt you switch to paper trading until it recovers to 65+ and go back to real trading. Or if not points you could try with time, paper trade 2 weeks or 1 month, etc.
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@Dan-MacKinnon thats interesting, thanks.
I have had similar thoughts on the change in seasons between races, it is something I have picked up on when running other strategies in the past and things like post Cheltenham dips etc.
I had already been looking if DSLR had much of a factor in this and if a beaten favourite was last run at the end of last season if this plays a factor in some of the heavier loosers we have seen this month. Some of the filters I tried certainly reduced the loss of this month, but subsequently, some of the previous months too seem to not be as profitable/some more months being loosers overall too.Will keep playing with it but nothing immediately obvious. Hopefully settle down over summer flat season.
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@George-Bowling I've been trading it since around November of last year. I think every month has been break even or profitable except for December and now this month.
This month has been horrendous, and not sure if that's potentially due to the changeover from winter to summer races. I can't give an accurate assessment because I've been messing about with bots and withdrawing funds but it needs a strong summer to bring it back on course.
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@Matthew-Harrison Been a rollercoaster month since I started forward testing too.... up over 50pts at one stage and down minus 20pts now on LTBF alone. I have faith it should settle down again soon though. How long have others been forward testing/ using the LTBF and hows the overall picture looking for people?
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Iām down almost Ā£100 off Ā£1 stakes in the last couple of weeks from ltbf. Iām going to paper trade until it picks up
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@Joseph-Henderson yeah very bad
hoping it turns
