The BTC Horse Racing Thread

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If you set up a strategy in the software to run relative to 'Official' start then the software will stop placing bets at the official start time. Unlike Fairbot (and probably most other trading software) this software cant specify a different value (Official/Actual) for start and stop (@Adam maybe thats a possibility for the future).

As all my strats are set up like this my BFBM setup i think is correct to maintain consistency between actual results and backtest results. Either losing the stop betting from BFBM (thus creating a betting window of unknown size) or changing the software to use 'Actual' (creating an impossible to implement criteria) means i am introducing a set of circumstances that cant be modelled (like the favourites issue) and a total lack of trust in the backtest results.

I have changed the price criteria to default as you suggest but thats not how the backtest executes and a big reason for this change is to improve execution consistency. Will see how that performs today.

Greg Mitchell

@Jonathan-Jones I would be happy to have a look at it for you if you like (a second pair of eyes) if you send me both the BFBM bot and the BTC strategy files.

John Folan

@Jonathan-Jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@Greg-Mitchell @John-Folan

Its an interesting one. The strat lays between 6 and 9.8 (so thats LTP is in that range inclusive). I have loads of extra bets taken. 2 from yesterday at Yarmouth 16:30.
Apex
More Than a Grey

Both have odds Req 7.2 and avg Price of 6.4 (i set to ask for 4 ticks worse to be sure i get matched) so they look fine right?
But, They are not in the software backtest this morning (BFBM took 4 bets for this strat on that race, The Software and Fairbot both only have 2). If i look at the chart in the software neither horse ever gets near 6 in the time window. The fact Fairbot also skipped them tells me BFBM is wrong in this case.

The only other suspicious thing is BFBMs time window:

'before in play', is that before the official start or what because its impossible for BFBM to know when 10 seconds before actual inplay is. So, is BFBM using the official start for the before and the actual start for the to?

#Edit#
I dont think its the times. I just ran the software with a few variations and those bets dont show. I also checked the wording on BFBM and though the start is a bit odd the stop says 'start time'.

Lose the stop betting bit for starters. As long as you don't have the "keep betting inplay" box ticked then it will automatically stop wen it goes into play. BFBM will stop placing bets at the official start time the way yours is set up I think. I could be wrong, but either way it will make the bot slightly more efficient as it is one less variable to calculate.

I think your problem is using LTP. I just use back and lay price(both, not either, or) and my stuff seems to match the software 98% of the time.

@Adam does a certain amount need to be traded at a price point in the software or is it just if it reaches that price regardless of the amount matched? Timeform for example needs £100 matched at a price for it to count.

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@Greg-Mitchell @John-Folan

Its an interesting one. The strat lays between 6 and 9.8 (so thats LTP is in that range inclusive). I have loads of extra bets taken. 2 from yesterday at Yarmouth 16:30.
Apex
More Than a Grey

Both have odds Req 7.2 and avg Price of 6.4 (i set to ask for 4 ticks worse to be sure i get matched) so they look fine right?
But, They are not in the software backtest this morning (BFBM took 4 bets for this strat on that race, The Software and Fairbot both only have 2). If i look at the chart in the software neither horse ever gets near 6 in the time window. The fact Fairbot also skipped them tells me BFBM is wrong in this case.

The only other suspicious thing is BFBMs time window:

'before in play', is that before the official start or what because its impossible for BFBM to know when 10 seconds before actual inplay is. So, is BFBM using the official start for the before and the actual start for the to?

#Edit#
I dont think its the times. I just ran the software with a few variations and those bets dont show. I also checked the wording on BFBM and though the start is a bit odd the stop says 'start time'.

Martin

@Daniel-franceschi said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Hi please can someone email me the BTC horse races for today. I usually receive the email in the morning but it hasn't today thanks Danny

Strategies:

Back The Course & Distance Winner - Let the bet run

Rules: Back at odds 2.0-6.99, enter 10 mins before the official start time.

7/7/2023 16:50

Sandown

Lionella

7/7/2023 17:50

Beverley

Sound Reason

7/7/2023 19:35

Beverley

Valley Of Flowers

7/7/2023 20:10

Beverley

Stoney Lane

7/7/2023 18:05

Haydock

Lady Of Arabia

7/7/2023 19:50

Haydock

Metabolt

Back The Favourite at the Off - Let the bet run

Rules: Back at odds 2.5-6.0, enter 1 min before the official start time

(Note - we do not know which horse will be fav until entry time)

7/7/2023 18:05

Haydock

Will Know Near Off

7/7/2023 19:50

Haydock

Will Know Near Off

7/7/2023 18:40

Haydock

Will Know Near Off

7/7/2023 19:15

Haydock

Will Know Near Off

7/7/2023 20:25

Haydock

Will Know Near Off

7/7/2023 21:00

Haydock

Will Know Near Off

Back the Pace Horse - Let the bet run

Rules: Back at odds 2-25, expect variance

7/7/2023 21:00

Haydock

Covert Mission

Lay The Beaten Favourite - Let the bet run

Rules: Lay at odds 3.0-15, enter 10 mins before the official start time

7/7/2023 15:30

Doncaster

King Of The Plains

7/7/2023 17:05

Wexford

Fancy A Cosmo

7/7/2023 17:05

Wexford

Chiefs Kingdom

7/7/2023 17:20

Bellewstown

Fastman

7/7/2023 17:50

Beverley

Sugar Baby

7/7/2023 17:50

Beverley

Lord Abama

7/7/2023 17:50

Beverley

Majeski Man

7/7/2023 18:13

Wexford

Lily's Choice

7/7/2023 19:00

Beverley

Star Start

7/7/2023 19:58

Wexford

Francois

Pace Lays - Let the bet run

Rules: Lay at odds 3.0-11, enter 1 min before the actual start time

7/7/2023 21:0

Haydock

Covert Mission

7/7/2023 13:55

Sandown

Can To Can

7/7/2023 14:55

Doncaster

Jeans Maite

7/7/2023 14:55

Doncaster

Sparkling Red

7/7/2023 14:55

Doncaster

The Big Board

7/7/2023 14:55

Doncaster

Holy Fire

7/7/2023 16:25

Newton Abbot

The Height Of Fame

7/7/2023 16:40

Doncaster

Temporize

7/7/2023 16:50

Sandown

Further Measure

7/7/2023 17:00

Newton Abbot

Mr Mafia

7/7/2023 17:15

Doncaster

Belinda Bell

7/7/2023 18:40

Haydock

Farhhfromforgotten

7/7/2023 19:50

Haydock

Garner

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@Greg-Mitchell
Yep. And these are imported selections its betting on. Its just the price for those specific selections doesnt meet the criteria. The price for others does. So its betting on them, and also these.

Greg Mitchell

@John-Folan Can only be that

John Folan

@Greg-Mitchell Funny I just looked at one of mine and it's set exactly the same on that page as Jonathon's and it works. Your comment is the only reason I can see why it wouldn't work.

I've also done the ignore tick list as well as per below.

Greg Mitchell

@Jonathan-Jones Have you got your Staking rules set to bet only on imported tips as per your previous bot pics

Daniel franceschi

Hi please can someone email me the BTC horse races for today. I usually receive the email in the morning but it hasn't today thanks Danny

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More BFBM Help please.

How do i make sure it only bets on imported selections where the price is in the range?
The example has this 'Min/Max selection price' rule:

But its not right. It really does seem to place a bet on my selection if ANY runner is in that price range. I want it to just be that selection.

I know my current setup isnt correct because i get many more bets than i should . I check a couple from yesterday and according to the software (and on Fairbot) the selection never traded in the price range.

Adam

Just been reading an interesting study about distance travelled and thought I'd share as it came up the other day:

https://www.johnston.racing/wp-content/uploads/2018_05_James-Willoughby-the-significance-of-travelling-distance-to-the-races.pdf

Quite a nice logistic regression study which seems to suggest there's not much relationship between distance and wins alone, but it might be interesting to research some of the other potential "confounding factors", for example prize money. It makes sense that the races further from the stable are the ones with higher prize values, to make it worth the travel, but they may also be harder races to win.

The software makes it pretty easy to explore these other factors by changing the group breakdown of the results

The limitations of the study are that it only focuses on one trainer, and also it's a few years old. Maybe things have changed post-covid now the horses aren't self-isolating any more

Greg Mitchell

@Joshua-Varley Just that individual bot

Joshua Varley

@Greg-Mitchell *selections

Joshua Varley

@Greg-Mitchell P.S sorry, one more thing - with the 1 bet per market selected, would this affect other possible solutions, using different bot, or does it only apply to that single bot?

Joshua Varley

@Greg-Mitchell you're a star - thanks mate!

Greg Mitchell

@Joshua-Varley Yes it would do the trick, but be careful because just thinking it through, the single selection may change during the "betting time", so as well as setting the Min/Max selections to 1, I would change the setting sin the bot "Edit" section (se Jonathans screen shot earlier) to only allow 1 bet per market. This will then only place a bet if there is a single selection at any given time during your "betting window".

Joshua Varley

@Greg-Mitchell Hi Greg - sorry to jump in again, but quick question about the min/max number of qualified selections you mentioned in the staking rules on BFBM, as I hadn't come across it before and i'm curious if this would work for the following problem:

I want to place a lay bet on horse if it meets the all the other criteria (price, time etc.), but I only ever want to bet on a single horse in a single race. Sometimes, there will be multiple selections for a race - if one of these meets the criteria, but the others don't, then I'd still like to place the bet on the horse that does. However, if more then one meet the criteria, i'd want to avoid betting all together.

It seems like the staking rule you mentioned might be the solution to this?

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@Greg-Mitchell

Great. THanks,

Greg Mitchell

@Jonathan-Jones I have a very similar bot for Dutching the 1st 4 Favs and I use Start Price to Determine the Favourite and it has always worked, even though I am putting the bet on at 10 secs before the start time.

The determine favourite from before in play, would only be required if you wanted to bet in play (I think), so no need to tick that.