The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Andy Donnelly

Just read that historically horses starting the national at single figure prices don’t have a great SR in the national! Worth a lay on any if they start short?

Dan MacKinnon

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Noble Yeats
Le Milos
Ain’t that a Same
Any Second Now

Backing each way in the National Later.

I was going E/W on Le Milos and Mister Coffey.

The trouble with laying horses is the names I recognise are usually because I want them to lose. Let’s see how I get on without the software to help.

Martin

Anyone got any sweepstakes going?

John Folan

@emily-knowles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Does a huge race like the Grand National affect the other races in any way? Anything unusual I need to factor in to my trades today?

Probably but I never worry. Business as usual apart from massively higher scalping stakes at Aintree as so much more liquidity.

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Does a huge race like the Grand National affect the other races in any way? Anything unusual I need to factor in to my trades today?

John Folan

Noble Yeats
Le Milos
Ain’t that a Same
Any Second Now

Backing each way in the National Later.

John Folan

@richard-coxon well put. I used to think the same thing when I was making pennies. Then once I was confident in my ability to scalp I had to take the leap of faith. Then you find out you don’t need to take as many ticks. On the flip side you tend to get out a lot quicker on losses as the numbers are bigger. I failed to see a downside with it.

Richard Coxon

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@joseph-henderson said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Apologies if this is a [SNIP]

I use good size stakes now so really don’t need that much movement to make what I want off of a race. I go in a few times depending on what is going on for smaller movements. But to answer your question I’m normally out 2 or 3 ticks the wrong way as that usually indicates I’ve got it wrong. Sometimes it recovers but most of the time that Red keeps on growing

I think that is a very good point, a lot of us 'newbies' forget this aspect, when your 1% of bank roll is, for example, £100 then you dont really need too many ticks movement to make a decent anount of green a day (or obviously equally a large red in the opposite direction). But it means you can be fairly happy with a one or two tick move. I think a lot of us - me included - used to get frustrated with green values of pennies and wondering how on earth you'd ever make a living or at the very least a decent amount trading. So we take too much risk and look for larger tick movements in order to increase the green - usually though ending up with too much red LOL. Since I have started using percentages of net stake and points - so never thinking of stakes as 'money' - I've found it a lot easier all round. If I have a certain percentage green or red I'm out. So now I measure everything as points / percentages of up or down rather than thinking about cash.

So how much percentage of my stake am I prepared to loose, what percentage profit am I happy with is what I go with. Has helped me tremdously.

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A quiet day for me today with nothing meeting my criteria for a trade. To be honest I quite enjoyed watching the opening day of Aintree with no ££ on the line

John Folan

@joseph-henderson said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Apologies if this is a silly question but I was wondering if anyone has any guidance on staking and risk management when scalping? In several videos online people refer to targeting a certain number of ticks for example, however I haven't read anything about how to manage risk and when to exit if the trade goes against you in order to remain profitable in the long run. Thanks

I use good size stakes now so really don’t need that much movement to make what I want off of a race. I go in a few times depending on what is going on for smaller movements. But to answer your question I’m normally out 2 or 3 ticks the wrong way as that usually indicates I’ve got it wrong. Sometimes it recovers but most of the time that Red keeps on growing

Joseph Henderson

Apologies if this is a silly question but I was wondering if anyone has any guidance on staking and risk management when scalping? In several videos online people refer to targeting a certain number of ticks for example, however I haven't read anything about how to manage risk and when to exit if the trade goes against you in order to remain profitable in the long run. Thanks

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@john-folan thanks John

John Folan

@david-milligan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan so does this mean if you had a max drawdown of say 10pt, you split your bank into 30pts? And stake eg 3%? Not really 100% sure how to work these out

Pretty much it mate. Nice and simple

David Milligan

@john-folan so does this mean if you had a max drawdown of say 10pt, you split your bank into 30pts? And stake eg 3%? Not really 100% sure how to work these out

John Folan

@gary-tunnicliffe said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan morning John, what do you mean by "correct" staking ? fixed liabilty all lays ?

I run a variety between flat stakes and liability(short odd lays for example are obvious flat stakes). Than others on liability. All compounding at different rates depending on the drawdown. I work on I want a three times max drawdown as a bank and work the compounding on that be it at 1%, 2% or 5% of bank.

Hope that makes senses.

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@john-folan morning John, what do you mean by "correct" staking ? fixed liabilty all lays ?

Joshua Varley

@kevin-pepper No worries at all mate - shout if I can point you in the right direction with anything. I'm definitely stumbling through it myself, but starting to get to grips with it!

Kevin Pepper

@joshua-varley Thanks Josh. I've had a dabble with ChatGPT but need to do some proper research to see how it might help with some of my Excel stuff. At the moment I can't figure at all how you'd ask it do carry work on a s/sheet what with referencing the file, columns etc but the only way is it get stuck in. Seems you've got some real value from it

John Folan

LTBF is the way forward. Correct staking on flat stakes looks golden. Short odds lays and pace backs will start smashing it now the flat has started. Like c and d winner too.

We need speed ratings.

Nick Allan

@david-milligan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@nick-allan it's funny how things differ - I'm struggling to get anything very interesting going on the football side and I'm thinking about focusing purely on horses. The lay the beaten fave strategy is my best performing, with back fave/c&d winner/pace lays bumping along just above breakeven but have been positive a fair bit before some negative variance.

ive started back with lay the beaten fav with a fixed liability as opposed to flat stakes so lets see what happens, who knows 4 months down the line the 3 strategies could perform well and football goes up the spout. The best thing is im learning, and if i can make a few quid along the way then fab. But im not going to stick with something thats not making money for me, and i have given horses a fair wack and will continue to do so until my subs run out. But you know after a year if its working