The BTC Horse Racing Thread

James Menhenitt

@Martin That would be an awesome help, actually, fantastic learning tool, thanks

Martin

@James-Menhenitt I'll start a strategy database thread for horses like I did with football, that should help with examples of what people have used.

Greg Mitchell

@Adam Not sure this is worth raising as support ticket, but a quick question on the software race card DOB and TROB %. How would I replicate that in the software? I have tried doing the obvious i.e. BSP > Lowest Price Inrunning X 2, and other variations, but can't get it to pick the same horses as those showing in the Racecard?

James Menhenitt

@Martin thanks for the update. Actually completely agree with that as I've experienced in the past a tipster disappear who was actually quite profitable and it was a big gap!

The problem it left (and if I'm honest still is a problem) is knowing what metrics can impact the probability of success/failure of a strategy. Hopefully that will come with time.

Martin

@James-Menhenitt said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@Tony-Hastie Just catching up after many months not on the forum (ill family members to blame in the main)

Been a lot of changes, seems a fair few horse strategies no longer recommended??

Can I ask, which Dobbing video are you talking about of Martin's?

Cheers

We don't recommend strategies anymore, it was heading down the tipster route which we wanted to avoid.

We do this because the software gives the tools for creating your own strategy, which makes you the user a much more powerful trader as you become self sufficient and not reliant on anyone else.

James Menhenitt

@Tony-Hastie Thanks Tony! Much appreciated!

Tony Hastie

@James-Menhenitt Where I mentioned the 18k of emails? Think it was this one mate....

James Menhenitt

@Tony-Hastie Just catching up after many months not on the forum (ill family members to blame in the main)

Been a lot of changes, seems a fair few horse strategies no longer recommended??

Can I ask, which Dobbing video are you talking about of Martin's?

Cheers

Martin

@John-Folan yeah in total I reckon only 20+ are viable for decent trading

John Folan

@Martin that many? Wow

Martin

@John-Folan still about 58 leagues to trade I just did a video on this topic funnily enough

John Folan

Bet life is boring at them moment if you just trade football.

murdo martin

free £10 bet in betfair for the 2 oclock at epsom

Adam

If it doesn't have a rating yet, it should just be null.

The points assigned towards the rating are 4 for L, 2 for P and 0 for H. So if the horse was held up in its last 3 races, its rating can be zero.

John Folan

@Tony-Hastie said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Potential idiotic incoming question alert....

Apart from having 0 runs, why would a horse have a 0 pace rating?

I think it needs 3 runs to get a pace rating. @Adam ???

Tony Hastie

@Martin Is it that simple? Not just a number given if a pace rating isnt available for some reason?

Martin

@Tony-Hastie not very fast

Tony Hastie

Potential idiotic incoming question alert....

Apart from having 0 runs, why would a horse have a 0 pace rating?

Martin

@Kevin-Pepper great stuff! It backs up to four horses in a race odds 3-25

Kevin Pepper

As Adam says, it's key to know what your potential drawdown might hit. I'm sure we've all been there when you hit a bad run and your losses seem untenable and are ready to jack in a strategy. Losing 84pts on a strategy which backs at an average of say evens is quite a different thing to one with an average price of 20s. The bank should be adjusted to reflect the average odds and likely losing runs.
I'm sure I've seen a bank calculator somewhere which helps work out how many points you should consider for your bank. I think it'll be based on the Poisson calculator and it also may need a multiplier as from memory it looked a bit optimistic for my taste. Am away at the moment but will try and find and share.
The other important consideration is whether you're backing or laying. I see alot of posts regarding lay strategies saying they are for example 30 points up but the average lay odds are say 4.0. My preference is to always convert to level stakes based on the liability. At a lay price of 4.0, a gain of 30 points would be +10 based on the average 3 point liability. So flipping that around, if Martin's loss is 84 points but it we're a lay strategy, I'd convert the 84 pts loss based on the average lay price.
Hope that's of some use
K