The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Joseph Henderson

@John-Folan Fair enough. Do you then use flat stakes or compound?

John Folan

@Joseph-Henderson I did. Then I decided not to. Just did a 150 point bank. It has a max drawdown of about 50 points so I can cope with that

Joseph Henderson

@John-Folan Nice! Do you lay to liability on your LTBF strategy?

John Folan

@Joseph-Henderson my version got an utter kicking the last few days. Not today tho.

Joseph Henderson

Just checked my bot and google sheets, LTBF has had a relative drawdown of 42% since the 16th May for me - ouch!

John Folan

@Jonathan-Jones I’ve got a pretty decent way of doing it in excel. I’ll sort out a blank copy people can use. I normally work out the biggest points drawdown and make the bank 3 x that.

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@John-Folan I dont use the DD in the software. its no use for me as i run a portfolio (plus it doesnt work with fixed stakes as that will give different results depending where in the backtest the losses come). I use cumulated daily points multiplied by 1% so its independent of the start point.

John Folan

@Jonathan-Jones check the drawdowns by downloading the individual results. I think the one in the software is factored around the longest losing run not the biggest drop from any peak.

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@Ryan-Clark You can have upto 5 rules on the 1 event in the guardian. I have these to go with what you have already. Basically I put number Lay the Beaten Fav 2 into 'Automation Rules 2' in Guardian. Same again with Filter 3, just use in 'Automation Rule 3' and so on.

The files are all effectively the same. I just have them adjusted to suit the automation rule and Automated nomination selection.

Lay the Beaten Fav 5.baf Lay the Beaten Fav 4.baf Lay the Beaten Fav 3.baf Lay the Beaten Fav 2.baf

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@Dan-MacKinnon

I’m sticking with it. I predominately do football trading. I done 2 LBF yesterday and every single one today on £1 stakes to grow confidence with it but ended up £50 down off 8 trades. I can see by the spreadsheets that it’s proven to be profitable over time. I guess I just got in at the worst time possible, I’m just going ride the storm during this downswing and hopefully it’ll turn around

Dan MacKinnon

@Jonathan-Jones similar story to me. I always think it's best to double the DD whatever the software says as a buffer

Dan MacKinnon

@Matthew-Harrison I've gone really aggressive staking and have been trading this since the start of the year. I had over 200pts profit but have now gone below my starting bank (I have also made withdrawals so it's a bit misleading). This week has been brutal but you just have to trust the process

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@Matthew-Harrison
LBF has been destroyed this month. Its been a bad month for everything. I started with £50 mid april, by a couple of days into may it was up to £122 (all on 1% stake). Its now down to £48 (some issues beyond the actual strats though like unmatched bets, a lot of rubbish with the favourites condition which is no use at all as it is) so thats not all racing performance. But, its still looking like being double the DD its ever had in 2 years of backtesting. Thats pretty worrying to be honest. I do have a couple of strats i dont use live that have been performing pretty good this month. But knowing the luck i am having at the moment if i added them it would probably blow the account (the massive varience on one is why i dont run it live yet).

Andy Donnelly

@Matthew-Harrison It’s down this week, worth week of the year by a long way so far. Need to tally up at the end of the day, but prior to this week it was up over 100 points

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@Andy-Donnelly

How many points is this still up this week and what’s the average points gained from this one ? Thanks

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@Andy-Donnelly

I wish there wasn’t any thing to sea then can’t believe this haha

Andy Donnelly

@Matthew-Harrison Yeh def bad timing but stick with it. I’ve been following this since the start of the year and despite a bad week this week it’s still in very healthy profit.

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@Peter-McFarlane I have managed to import the lay the beaten fav and it is firing on one selection but I am struggling if I have more than one selection for that race. At the moment I am opening up more than one guardian to get around this issue but its not ideal

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@Matthew-Harrison Its been a nightmare 4 days

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Still going to stick with it though. It’s obviously profitable, I just couldn’t of started on a worse day