The BTC Horse Racing Thread
-
@dan-erridge Does the Pace Map give any assistance for our LTF exercise or just best used for B2L?
-
I carried out an experiment earlier on some horses that i got of Richards website, they were horses that equibase had very short that were bigger on betfair, i noted the prices at 1pm to back and the prices at 6.30pm to lay to see if they more aligned with the american prices, heres the results
R1 WRD gold note 1PM 5.6,6.30PM 4.0
R9 WRD SWEET CAROLINA 1PM 6.2,6.30PM 5.4
R5 FON VAGARY 1PM 4.2,6.30PM 3.3ALL THREE WOULD HAVE BEEN LOVELY TRADES PRE OFF ALREADY, THERE WERE 2 OTHERS THAT ARE SIMILAR IN PRICE ATM, BUT NO MONEY MATCHED YET, IM SURE NEARER POST THEY WILL START SHORTER, THEY WERE
R3 FON RUN FOR MARTY
R5 WRD HOLLYWOOD SQUAREI WILL CHECK THESE AT POST TIME
-
@alan-steward
If you go to that link Richard posted earlier mate, sign up, all the courses are free at the moment, that gives you a pace map for the early,middle and end pace and a write up about each race, plus odds value etc etc, looks very good, then you can check the pace map against the races tonight -
@alan-steward A pacemap shows the expected positons / pace in each individual race based on previous data. It can be extremely useful in idetifying for example (a horse for a B2L that looks set to gain an easy early lead).
-
How do we read or understand a "Pacemap"?
What is a Pacemap?
Would this help with LTF & Back2Lay?
-
@richard-lillis Hi mate welcome back to BTC... Am looking at getting into the horse racing scene so would love to be able to pick your brains plus the other experienced horse traders.
So from my short experience of trading the US horse market in-play trading can range between 15 & 25% from pre off... Pre off is generally around 150/230K obviously give or take
-
@richard-lillis
Yep thats what ive just been on mate, looks good, also gives you odds of what price they should be and what is value, so ive noted them aswell to see how they do, how accurate the pace maps are will be intersting as thats vital to getting matched quickly imo, i will be on very small stakes tonight anyway mate, thanks for the info -
@dan-erridge if you go on statslens true odds, it gives you a pacemap of predicted running styles. Not sure how accurate it is as I've never traded US but may be helpful.
-
@richard-lillis depends on the meeting but it's hard to trade inplay as it isn't huge
-
@richard-lillis Just downloaded and signed up mate, it's free at the moment guys for the race cards so worth looking at if your into the American stuff, Cheers Richard
-
@richard-lillis
Cheers mate, yeah liquidity is ok at the moment, possibly because of lack of UK racing so will have to monitor when it returns. -
@dan-erridge I don't know much about US racing but know some of my collegues use
https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbProductPage.cfm?pid=50620&Incltxt=eqpViewStatstrueoddsSub.cfm&REDIRECT_SUB=Yits a small subscription price for a card but it gives you a useful pacemap which may help with in-play trading.
-
@dan-erridge what's the liquidity like on the US in-play?
-
@richard-lillis
Hi mate.welcome back.yeah any info on trading the horses would be great mate.im looking at b2l in USA at the moment as watching the markets for a few meetings I've noticed big reactions when one of say the 4 fancied runners goes forward and the rest drop back a bit, it's price can crash very fast.also if a few going up on the pace, the most fancied runner that tracks that pace contracts in price quickly.gonna play about later with small stakes and research the card this afternoon -
@richard-lillis Welcome to the group mate. Sounds like you can bring some valuable help to us newbie horse traders.
-
@dan-erridge Hi Dan that's the attitude we should be taking especially in the present climate. Exactly the same as me I am persevering with the ltf maybe testing slightly different formulas with small stakes that I can afford to lose, I have also tested a couple of races on the b2l strategy may take that up more as well.
I am going to go out for a long walk shortly that helps clear my head ( release them endorphins) and then I will get back I am looking at scalping the French markets and then wait for the two Usa markets this evening.
Trying to be very conservative at the moment as unsure about my job situation and the Furlough I am on which has probably been the thing that is suddenly helping my discipline. -
As a recent returning member i thought i would give you all some more info about myself, how i trade, my strengths / weaknesses etc. What i can offer to you guys and what i hope to learn / expand on from everyones areas of expertise.
So my job / life is watching horse racing - i literally live & breathe it. I have shares in horses and alongside my job as a compiler, i provide tips to a subscription service and help run a racing club.
So because of this when intially dabbling in trading it quickly became apparent that when trading pre-event i was letting my knowledge of the race and horse cloud my judgement of what the market was doing. Therefore, i decided i had to find a niche aspect of trading when i would have an edge. I decided watching the market in-play that the market wasn't aware of certain horses traits - eg. horses that would come off the bridle early but always respond to pressure. I decided that using my knowledge of how horses run / behave during races was my angle i could exploit. So i have been doing this successfully for a number of years (had break in 2019) however , due to time restraints and opportunites (only trade NH races over fences ) - i need to learn more ways of expoiting trading opportunites.
If you would like me to expand any further or have any questions feel free to contact me.
All the best
Rich -
@james-everard
Hi mate, bit similar to you mate, was desperate to trade and was thinking about trading all sorts, on very small stakes, but still a bad idea, I’m perserviring with the ltf trials when I can and also just trying some b2l stuff again for small stakes on USA racing, I’ve noticed prices shorten v quickly out there if you can pick the right ones you can be matched after a furlong, might do a card tommorow night and see how goes, do you b2l at all mate? -
@dan-erridge Hi mate you sound like me with technology. I tried a bot last week overnight and didn't realise you had to have your pc left on with Guardian bots lol.
I am ok thanks , infact much better than I was yesterday. I was over trading and chasing losses and my mentality had gone, watched a video Martin Futter done yesterday and I feel like a new trader today.
I am stopping all the over trading on rubbish , think this lockdown started to effect my mental health, i have realised that now and hopefully nipped it in the bud. Think everything going on in the world makes you worry about your health, and employment etc.
Feel much more positive with my trading plan going forward now, much more sport in the pipeline and I can then plan my trades for each day and hopefully find them trades that will make more profit than losses.
How's your trading overall? -
@james-everard
Evening mate, my pc pissing about, set up my bots, watching on my phone downstairs, thought why has that not fired? Went up stairs and it had all shut down! So just monitoring now,you been doing much?
