The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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I've gone back to the start of February when I was tracking my results vs the software.
Software: 167 trades
Fairbot: 194 tradesSoftware: 8 losers, 95% SR
Fairbot: 13 losers, 93% SR8 trades were on the software and not Fairbot, 19 were on Fairbot but not the software (Adam has told me that some of the data from Betfair takes a couple of weeks to show up on the software so there is a chance it has been updated, this is taken usually the day after).
I haven't worked out the P&L but it's roughly the same. It's starting to make sense why this month is so rubbish if I was going at 95% SR last month from 124 trades!
I know it's said here so often but I love the software because it gives us an opportunity to mess about with stuff like this without having to wait years to build up data.
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
This is my early doors analysis of the software results vs Betfair (Fairbot) vs Betdaq (BFBM) using LTBF.
Trades
Total 57 horses as per the upcoming qualifiers from 5th to 12th April- Software: 32 trades
- Betfair: 47 trades
- Betdaq: 43 trades
Losers
- Software: 4
- Betfair: 9
- Betdaq: 6
Strike Rate
- Software: 88%
- Betfair: 81%
- Betdaq: 86%
I know this short example makes it seem that the software is being misleading by avoiding a few losers, but last month it was the opposite and left out a few winners so overall it works out probably +/1 5% overall.
Overall, Fairbot seems to pick up more of the trades, especially around the 3 and 15 marks. Annoyingly it got matched at 2.98 and went on to lose. I would put some of the differences down to whether or not it got matched at 15.
I will keep records and when I get a decent size I'm happy to share more. I think that BFBM is probably more in line with the software results. It's just a shame I started recording this data during a losing month!
Interesting, I was just checking mine:
From the 4th March:
Software - 157 Selections
BFBM on Betfair(uploaded from Software URL) - 152 SelectionsSoftware - 145 "Winners", 12 "Losers"
BFBM - 140 "Winners", 12 "Losers"Both at roughly 92% Strike Rate
P & L to a £1 Stake
Software + £43
BFBM +£74Interestingly there were 20 on the Software that weren't on BFBM and 15 on BFBM that weren't on the Software
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This is my early doors analysis of the software results vs Betfair (Fairbot) vs Betdaq (BFBM) using LTBF.
Trades
Total 57 horses as per the upcoming qualifiers from 5th to 12th April- Software: 32 trades
- Betfair: 47 trades
- Betdaq: 43 trades
Losers
- Software: 4
- Betfair: 9
- Betdaq: 6
Strike Rate
- Software: 88%
- Betfair: 81%
- Betdaq: 86%
I know this short example makes it seem that the software is being misleading by avoiding a few losers, but last month it was the opposite and left out a few winners so overall it works out probably +/1 5% overall.
Overall, Fairbot seems to pick up more of the trades, especially around the 3 and 15 marks. Annoyingly it got matched at 2.98 and went on to lose. I would put some of the differences down to whether or not it got matched at 15.
I will keep records and when I get a decent size I'm happy to share more. I think that BFBM is probably more in line with the software results. It's just a shame I started recording this data during a losing month!
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I believe tomorrow will be 1 year since the horse racing software was released.
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@nathan-cooke said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Hey team, bit of a random one. I was digging online and found an article that suggested where there was a short priced fav, backing the 5th fav has a positive ROI.
We'll add this to the software. Probably makes sense to include nth fave with a max of 6 (6 being the max number of official "places" in any race).
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Unfortunately the fav criteria only goes to 4th fav, otherwise it would of been an easy one to test.
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@emily-knowles
Not seen the thread but you can easilty test this out yourself with the software if i get what you are asking. You can test laying to stake, liability by flat stake or by % bank.
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@david-milligan I can't find the thread that's what got me thinking if I really did read it or not!
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@emily-knowles I have read this somewhere too, can you post a link? Would love to see some data
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Unless I'm going mad, I'm sure I saw a thread to say that laying fixed stakes is more profitable than fixed liability as long as the bank management is good.
I'm wondering whether to change my staking from 2.5% bank as a liability to 1% flat stake
What's everyone's thoughts on this?
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Hey team, bit of a random one. I was digging online and found an article that suggested where there was a short priced fav, backing the 5th fav has a positive ROI. It was something like in races with 10 to 12 runners where the fav is between $1-$2, back the 5th fav. I'm a bit of a noob and still learning the software, but is this a strategy I can back test?
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Anyone got any sweepstakes going?
At work, Back on The Lash and Galvin but nothing real ..
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@john-folan ...Dunboyne, Galvin and Back on the Lash for me!!
Just drawn last horse in the sweep ...Any Second Now last 3 out were
Rambler, Delta and MIne, obviously nobody in pub keeping track of what was left!! -
Just read that historically horses starting the national at single figure prices don’t have a great SR in the national! Worth a lay on any if they start short?
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Noble Yeats
Le Milos
Ain’t that a Same
Any Second NowBacking each way in the National Later.
I was going E/W on Le Milos and Mister Coffey.
The trouble with laying horses is the names I recognise are usually because I want them to lose. Let’s see how I get on without the software to help.
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@emily-knowles said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Does a huge race like the Grand National affect the other races in any way? Anything unusual I need to factor in to my trades today?
Probably but I never worry. Business as usual apart from massively higher scalping stakes at Aintree as so much more liquidity.
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Does a huge race like the Grand National affect the other races in any way? Anything unusual I need to factor in to my trades today?
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Noble Yeats
Le Milos
Ain’t that a Same
Any Second NowBacking each way in the National Later.
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@richard-coxon well put. I used to think the same thing when I was making pennies. Then once I was confident in my ability to scalp I had to take the leap of faith. Then you find out you don’t need to take as many ticks. On the flip side you tend to get out a lot quicker on losses as the numbers are bigger. I failed to see a downside with it.
